Situation Report

Situation Update (1558Z)

Key updates since last sitrep

• Major Leadership Reshuffle (1537Z-1547Z, Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH): President Zelenskyy has dismissed Serhiy Deineko as Head of the State Border Guard Service (DPSU), appointing Valeriy Vavryniuk as acting head.
• Kursk Infrastructure Collapse (1538Z, Операция Z, HIGH): UAF strikes on Kursk Oblast have left 115 settlements without power; Russian sources confirm fatalities and significant grid damage.
• Regional Administrative Overhaul (1539Z, Zelenskiy / Official, HIGH): New heads of regional administrations for Vinnytsia, Dnipro, Poltava, Ternopil, and Chernivtsi are pending appointment following interviews.
• Tactical Success in Novopavlivka (1531Z, STERNENKO, HIGH): The "Perun" unit of the 42nd OMBr destroyed a Russian tank and neutralized associated personnel in the Novopavlivka sector.
• Sustained Moscow UAV Pressure (1555Z, Два майора, HIGH): Russian sources confirm "another evening of raids" targeting the capital, maintaining the paralysis of civilian aviation reported earlier.
• Kharkiv Casualty Increase (1535Z, ASTRA, HIGH): Search and rescue teams recovered another body from the rubble in Kharkiv following recent strikes.

Operational picture (by sector)

Northern Axis (Moscow/Kursk/Sumy)

• Kursk Oblast: UAF has transitioned from localized strikes to broad infrastructure degradation. The loss of power in 115 settlements indicates a successful strike on a regional distribution hub or multiple substations, likely impacting Russian military logistics and heating in the rear.
• Moscow: The tactical "no-fly zone" remains in effect as UAF continues evening UAV sorties. This forces the continued activation of Plan "Kovyor" and the redistribution of mobile AD assets from other sectors.
• Sumy/Border: Activity remains high. The appointment of a new acting head of the DPSU (Vavryniuk) suggests a potential shift in border security management or a response to the "Rubikon" FPV threats noted in the 1517Z report.

Eastern Axis (Lyman/Donbas)

• Novopavlivka Sector: NEW ACTIVITY. Confirmation of 42nd OMBr lethality against Russian armor. This indicates that while the Lyman sector faces "critical" logistics pressure (Ref: 1514Z), UAF units in adjacent sectors maintain high combat effectiveness and ATGM/drone proficiency.
• Lyman Sector: No new tactical updates since the 1514Z report of "critical" logistics destruction. The situation remains precarious following the loss of Podoly.

Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia/Dnipro)

• Zaporizhzhia City: An explosion reported at 1539Z was confirmed by the OVA as a controlled detonation by UAF EOD teams, not a Russian strike. This clarifies the "kinetic threat" environment and suggests active clearing of unexploded KABs or earlier strike debris.
• Rear Logistics (Dnipro): The inclusion of Dnipropetrovsk (Dnipro) in the list of regional leadership changes (1539Z) is significant. As the primary hub for the Donbas front, the administrative reinforcement here likely aims to harden the "Pavlohrad-Dnipro" corridor against the anticipated ballistic threat.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

• Infrastructure Vulnerability: The scale of the Kursk power outage suggests Russian rear-area air defense is failing to intercept UAF long-range OWA-UAVs effectively, even in border regions.
• Information Maneuver: Russian state-aligned channels (Colonelcassad, 1543Z) are heavily leaning into the "Venezuela/US Aggression" narrative. This is an attempt to frame the Ukraine conflict as part of a global anti-imperialist struggle to maintain domestic cohesion despite domestic infrastructure failures (Kursk).
• Propaganda Escalation: Pro-Russian mil-bloggers (НгП раZVедка, 1535Z) are issuing hyper-nationalist threats toward NATO (Baltics) to project strength and mask the embarrassment of sustained strikes on Moscow.

Friendly activity (UAF)

• Strategic Command Rotation: The dismissal of Deineko (DPSU) and the regional governor shuffle suggests a mid-winter "hardening" of the domestic administration. Zelenskyy's focus on "strengthening local self-government" and "ability of regions to defend life" points to a shift toward total-defense mobilization at the oblast level.
• Tactical Persistence: The 42nd OMBr's success in Novopavlivka demonstrates that UAF tactical units are successfully utilizing ISR to identify and destroy high-value Russian armor (T-series tanks) despite the broader Russian offensive pressure.

Information environment / disinformation

• "The Noriega Scenario": Russian channels are recycling 1980s-era anti-US rhetoric regarding Venezuela (Hugo Chavez clips) to create a sense of "Global WWIII" inevitability. Assessment: This is a distraction from the 115 settlements in Kursk currently without power.
• Controlled Detonation Transparency: The Zaporizhzhia OVA's rapid clarification of the 1539Z explosion is an effective counter to "strike panic" that often follows Russian KAB sorties.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

• MLCOA (Most Likely): Continued UAF UAV strikes on Russian energy infrastructure in border regions (Kursk/Belgorod) to exploit the current AD gaps. Russian forces will likely follow through with the predicted ballistic strike on Pavlohrad (Ref: Daily Report) under the cover of the "evening UAV raids" distraction.
• MDCOA (Most Dangerous): A coordinated Russian push in the Novopavlivka sector to avenge armor losses, utilizing the KAB sorties mentioned in the previous report to suppress the 42nd OMBr’s drone operators.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

1. Kursk Damage Assessment: Determine the specific high-voltage nodes struck to estimate the duration of the 115-settlement blackout.
2. DPSU Leadership Intent: Assess if Vavryniuk’s appointment signals a new offensive posture for Border Guard combat units or a defensive consolidation.
3. Regional Governor Selection: Monitor the background of the new appointees in Dnipro and Poltava—military vs. civilian backgrounds will indicate the priority (logistics vs. civil defense).

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IPB Framework Analysis

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW The conflict has expanded into a "War of Infrastructure." While the frontlines remain static or under Russian pressure (Lyman), the UAF is successfully creating "blackout zones" in the Russian rear (Kursk), forcing the Kremlin to deal with domestic civilian crises alongside military operations.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS The enemy is increasingly reliant on psychological projection (Baltic threats, Venezuelan parallels) to compensate for an inability to secure their own airspace. However, their tactical ground units (Novopavlivka) remain aggressive, necessitating high-intensity ATGM and FPV defense from UAF.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES UAF is undergoing a significant administrative "refresh." By replacing the Border Guard head and rotating governors in five key oblasts (including the Dnipro logistics hub), the Ukrainian leadership is optimizing for a long-term war of attrition and infrastructure resilience.

4. COGNITIVE DOMAIN A battle of narratives is underway. Russia is attempting to globalize the conflict context to deter Western aid, while Ukraine is demonstrating its ability to strike deep (Moscow/Kursk) and maintain internal political stability through transparent leadership changes.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS The targeting of Dnipro and Pavlohrad (implied by the governor shuffle and previous OWA-UAV vectors) remains the highest operational risk. The next 6 hours are critical for AD positioning around the Pavlohrad rail switching yards.

//ANALYSIS ENDS//