Situation Report

Situation Update (1100Z)

Key updates since last sitrep

• Air Vector Expansion (1029Z, UA Air Force, HIGH): Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs) launched from Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia sectors are now trending toward Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, indicating a deepening of the Russian air campaign beyond the immediate Line of Contact (LOC).
• UAV Incursions on Pavlohrad/Sumy (1032Z/1036Z, UA Air Force, HIGH): OWA-UAVs are currently active in the Dnipropetrovsk region heading for Pavlohrad (a critical logistics hub) and in the Sumy sector.
• Internal Security Realignment (1033Z/1034Z, RBK-UA/Operativnyi ZSU, HIGH): Serhiy Deyneko, former head of the State Border Guard Service (SBGS), has been appointed as an advisor to the Minister of Internal Affairs. This follows yesterday’s dismissal of five regional governors and suggests a continuing consolidation of the security/mobilization apparatus.
• Neutralization of Bryansk Threat (1040Z, AV Bogomaz, MEDIUM): The rocket danger alert for the Surazhsky district (Bryansk, RF) has been lifted. BDA remains unavailable.
• Evidence of Domestic RF Attrition (1052Z, Mobilization/Srochniki, MEDIUM): Reports of a mass memorial in Blagoveshchensk (Amur Oblast) featuring hundreds of photos of deceased personnel. This indicates significant localized casualties that are beginning to pierce the domestic information blockade.
• Maritime Hybrid Escalation (1046Z, Sternenko, HIGH): Verification of the Finnish Border Guard’s seizure of the Russian "shadow fleet" vessel Fitburg. This confirms the earlier report (1011Z) and represents a significant kinetic disruption of Russian hybrid maritime operations.

Operational picture (by sector)

Northern/Northeastern Axis (Kharkiv/Kupyansk/Lyman)

• Kupyansk/Svatove Sector: Following the capture of Podoly, the front remains highly fluid. Intelligence beliefs (Score 0.61) suggest potential Russian tactical advances in the Stepova Novoselivka area.
• Sumy Vector: Increased UAV activity (1036Z) indicates continued Russian pressure on northern border areas, likely intended to fix UAF units and prevent their redeployment to the Donbas.

Eastern Axis (Donbas)

• Pokrovsk/Donetsk Vector: Continuous KAB strikes (1029Z) are now being used not only for tactical suppression but as part of a larger strike package moving toward Dnipropetrovsk. DeepState map updates (1046Z) suggest adjustments in the Kostiantynivka vicinity, likely reflecting Russian attempts to consolidate high ground.

Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson)

• Dnipropetrovsk/Pavlohrad Vector: This is the current focus of Russian air activity. The redirection of KABs and UAVs toward Pavlohrad (1032Z) targets the "bridgehead" for the entire Eastern front's logistics.
• Kherson/Crimea Rear: Russian authorities report the detention of individuals attempting to infiltrate military units in Horly (Crimea) under the guise of journalists (1052Z), following a strike on New Year's Day. This indicates heightened Russian paranoia regarding UAF HUMINT and SOF activity in the rear.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

• Deepening Air Strikes: The shift in KAB trajectories toward Dnipropetrovsk suggests the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) are attempting to exploit perceived gaps in mid-tier AD coverage between the front and the rear logistics hubs.
• Hybrid Distraction Campaign: Russian state media (TASS) and affiliated channels (Rybar/Colonelcassad) are aggressively pushing three narratives: (1) US annexation of Greenland (1033Z, 1043Z, 1057Z), (2) a "Romanian crisis" (1032Z), and (3) Nazi ideology in the German Bundeswehr (1045Z).
• Exploitation of Infrastructure Failures: Russian channels are amplifying reports of a "massive blackout" in Berlin (1049Z). While likely a technical failure, RU info-ops are framing this within the context of European energy instability to erode Western public support.

Friendly activity (UAF)

• Command & Control: The appointment of Serhiy Deyneko (1034Z) is a pragmatic move to bring SBGS operational experience into the Ministry of Internal Affairs, likely to streamline border security and internal mobilization efforts.
• Strategic Maritime Success: The seizure of the Fitburg by Finland (1046Z) is a major win for the "Sanctions Enforcement" front, directly impacting Russia's ability to fund and facilitate hybrid operations in the Baltic.

Information environment / disinformation

• Reflexive Control: The "Greenland" narrative (1033Z) is a classic example of reflexive control, designed to provoke a diplomatic rift between the US and Denmark while distracting from the ongoing air campaign in Ukraine.
• Morale Management: The TASS-led reporting on the funeral of a civilian in Horly (1053Z) is intended to provide a "human face" to Russian losses and justify retaliatory strikes on UA energy infrastructure.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

• MLCOA (Most Likely): Continued UAV/KAB strikes on Pavlohrad and Dnipropetrovsk to disrupt logistics before the work week begins. Increased RU mechanized pressure in the Stepova Novoselivka area.
• MDCOA (Most Dangerous): A coordinated ballistic missile strike from the 2652th GRAU Arsenal (identified in daily report) targeting Dnipropetrovsk, timed to exploit the current UAV-induced AD saturation.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

1. Dnipropetrovsk AD Status: Assessment of AD density around Pavlohrad. Has the "Easterly Vector" shift for KABs identified yesterday successfully bypassed current interceptor positions?
2. Stepova Novoselivka/Kostiantynivka BDA: GEOINT verification of the DeepState map update (1046Z). Have Russian forces established permanent positions in these sectors?
3. Shadow Fleet Retaliation: Monitor Russian Baltic Fleet movements for potential asymmetric responses to the seizure of the Fitburg.

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IPB Framework Analysis

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW The conflict is experiencing a "dual expansion." Spatially, the air war is moving from the frontline into the Dnipropetrovsk/Pavlohrad logistics corridor. Administratively, the Ukrainian government is hardening its internal security structure through high-level appointments.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS The VKS is adapting. By shifting KAB launch points and combining them with UAV swarms (1032Z), they are attempting to overwhelm Ukrainian AD through multi-vector saturation. Domestically, the RF is struggling to contain the visual evidence of high attrition (Blagoveshchensk memorial), leading to a spike in "retaliatory" propaganda focused on civilian casualties in Crimea.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES UAF/Internal security forces are in a phase of transition. The personnel changes at the ministerial level suggest a move toward more stringent internal controls. In the maritime domain, cooperation with NATO partners (Finland) is yielding tangible results against the Russian "shadow fleet."

4. COGNITIVE DOMAIN The RU info-op is currently "globalized." By focusing on Greenland, Venezuela, and Romania, Russia is attempting to project an image of a world in chaos, where the Ukrainian war is merely a secondary theatre. This is aimed at Western policymakers to induce "intervention fatigue."

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS The next 12 hours are critical for the Dnipropetrovsk/Pavlohrad sector. If RU successfully strikes the Pavlohrad rail/road hubs, the supply chain for the Donbas will be severely degraded. Expect continued "noise" regarding Western internal issues (Berlin/Germany/Greenland) to mask these operational objectives.

//ANALYSIS ENDS//