Donetsk KAB Strikes (1951Z, Air Force UAF, HIGH): Enemy tactical aviation has initiated launches of Guided Aerial Bombs (KAB) targeting the Donetsk region, indicating a transition from reconnaissance to kinetic suppression.
Northern UAV Incursion (1952Z, Air Force UAF, HIGH): An enemy UAV is currently transiting northwestern Chernihiv region, specifically on a vector toward Slavutych/Liubech from the north.
Dnipropetrovsk Air Threat (1931Z-1958Z, Air Force UAF/Dnipropetrovsk ODA, HIGH): Active threat of air-launched weapons in Synelnykove district. At least one enemy UAV was successfully intercepted by Air Command "East" (Pvk).
Ukrainian UAV Strike on Moscow (1935Z-1948Z, ASTRA/Sobyanin, MEDIUM): Moscow Mayor Sobyanin claims 17 Ukrainian UAVs were intercepted over the last three hours. (UNCONFIRMED)
India Oil Pivot (1929Z, ASTRA/Reuters, MEDIUM): Reports indicate the Indian government is tightening controls on Russian oil purchases to facilitate a trade deal with the United States, representing a significant strategic/economic shift.
Kyiv Energy Stabilization (1953Z, RBC-Ukraine, MEDIUM): Scheduled power outages in Kyiv have been suspended until midnight, though a severe deficit is projected for the following day.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Axis (Chernihiv): New UAV activity detected in the NW (Slavutych/Liubech). This movement suggests the RF is expanding its reconnaissance or harassment perimeter beyond the Sumy/Kholmy axis reported in the previous sitrep.
Eastern Sector (Donbas/Donetsk): Intensification of KAB usage (1951Z). RF tactical aviation is likely prioritizing the destruction of UAF defensive nodes to facilitate the "Tsentr" group's armored pressure previously noted in Pokrovsk.
Southern Sector (Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia): High alert in Synelnykove (1931Z). The downing of a UAV (1958Z) confirms persistent RF attempts to penetrate the airspace around this critical logistics hub.
Kharkiv Sector: Recovery operations continue following the Jan 2nd strikes; casualty count has risen to three (1955Z).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Aviation Surge: The shift to KAB launches in Donetsk (1951Z) suggests RF is attempting to capitalize on the "targeting" data collected by the UAV saturation reported earlier this evening.
Strategic Diversion: RF media (TASS, Colonelcassad, Alex Parker) is now reporting that Delcy Rodriguez has been named "Acting President" of Venezuela (1957Z). This evolution of the narrative aims to cement the "regime change" distraction as a long-term information screen.
Rear Security (Moscow): The reported 17-drone strike wave suggests a concerted UAF effort to force RF to pull air defense assets from the front to protect the capital.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense Efficacy: Successful interception of a UAV over Dnipropetrovsk (1958Z) demonstrates continued readiness of Air Command "East" despite saturation attempts.
Diplomatic Engagement: President Zelenskyy's briefing on the "diplomatic track" (1930Z) suggests an upcoming push for international support, potentially leveraging the reported Indian oil pivot as evidence of shifting global alignments.
Information environment / disinformation
"The Venezuela Script": Russian channels are flooding the space with claims of US military bases in Guantanamo moving Maduro (1934Z) and protests in Paris (1932Z).
Assessment: These reports are being used as a "reflexive control" mechanism. The high Dempster-Shafer belief score for "Appointment of Delcy Rodriguez" (0.15) indicates this sub-narrative is gaining traction to validate the broader disinformation campaign.
Economic Warfare: The report of India's oil policy shift (1929Z) is a critical counter-narrative to RF claims of "unbreakable" BRICS support.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Continued KAB strikes in the Donetsk sector followed by localized mechanized assaults in the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad area. The Chernihiv UAV (1952Z) will likely attempt a strike on infrastructure in the Slavutych area or loiter to provide BDA.
MDCOA: RF utilizes the ongoing global focus on Venezuela to launch a larger-scale missile strike from the 2652nd GRAU Arsenal (SAR score 22.01) against the Dnipro/Zaporizhzhia energy grid tonight.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Slavutych UAV Mission: Determine if the UAV (1952Z) is an OWA-UAV (Shahed) or a high-end reconnaissance platform (Orlan-30) targeting the Kyiv/Chernihiv energy corridor.
Moscow BDA: Corroborate Sobyanin’s claims of 17 downed UAVs. Identify if any impacts occurred at industrial or military sites in the Moscow suburbs.
Donetsk KAB Launch Points: Triangulate the specific launch vectors for the 1951Z KAB strikes to determine if they match the "Easterly Shift" noted in the previous daily report.
IPB Framework Analysis
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The battlefield remains in a state of high-intensity aerial engagement. RF has transitioned from pure reconnaissance to kinetic employment (KABs) in the East. The energy situation in the capital is temporarily stable but remains a primary target for upcoming waves.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
RF is maintaining a dual-track strategy: using high-volume disinformation (Venezuela) to dominate the global media cycle while simultaneously escalating tactical aviation strikes in the Donbas. The claim of downing 17 drones near Moscow suggests their domestic air defense is under significant stress.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
UAF is maintaining high defensive readiness. The use of deep-strike UAVs (Moscow) indicates an offensive posture in the aerial domain intended to disrupt RF logistics and psychological stability. Leadership is focused on internal "reboots" to sustain the long-term war effort.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
The information domain is heavily saturated by the Venezuelan narrative. UAF and partner agencies must counter this by highlighting the Indian oil pivot and the continued civilian casualties in Kharkiv (1955Z) to redirect international focus to the theater of operations.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Tactical: The KAB strikes in Donetsk are a precursor to increased ground tempo. Expect RF armor (T-80BVMs) to attempt localized breakthroughs in the next 0-6 hours.
Strategic: The India-Russia oil friction, if confirmed, will likely force RF to accelerate its kinetic objectives in Ukraine before economic constraints further tighten in Q1 2026.
