Situation Report

Situation Update (1858Z)

Key updates since last sitrep

• C2 Stability Confirmed (1833Z, ЦАПЛІЄНКО, HIGH): President Zelenskyy officially stated that the resignation of Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi is not under consideration, ending several hours of speculation regarding leadership shifts.
• Strategic Diplomatic Pivot (1842Z, Operativno ZSU, HIGH): During the upcoming "Coalition of the Willing" summit in Paris (Jan 5-6), Ukrainian officials are now confirmed to meet with representatives of the Trump team to coordinate future support (Operativno ZSU, 1842Z).
• Multi-Vector UAV Incursions (1835Z-1856Z, Air Force UAF, HIGH): Active OWA-UAV (Shahed) incursions detected in three sectors: Eastern Dnipropetrovsk toward Shakhtarske (1835Z), Sumy toward Putyvl (1850Z), and western outskirts of Zaporizhzhia (1856Z).
• UNSC Venezuela Session (1853Z, TASS, HIGH): The UN Security Council meeting regarding the Venezuela crisis is scheduled for Monday at 18:00 MSK, confirming a prolonged period of global diplomatic distraction favored by the RF (TASS, 1853Z).
• Domestic Resource Strain (1833Z, STERNENKO, MEDIUM): Significant decline in volunteer fundraising ("big deficit") reported by major Ukrainian NGO channels, potentially indicating donor fatigue or economic strain affecting non-state military procurement (STERNENKO, 1833Z).

Operational picture (by sector)

• Northern Axis (Sumy): Enemy UAVs are currently transiting the Putyvl area from an easterly vector (1850Z). This suggests the RF is maintaining pressure on the northern border to pin UAF AD assets away from the southern front.
• Eastern Sector (Dnipropetrovsk/Donbas): A UAV threat is active over eastern Dnipropetrovsk heading toward Shakhtarske (1835Z). This aligns with earlier reports of OWA-UAVs attempting to encircle the Dnipro logistics hub.
• Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia): A UAV is currently over the western outskirts of Zaporizhzhia city, moving on a North-East course (1856Z). This follows the 14:59Z ballistic alert and suggests continued tactical reconnaissance or harassment of the energy grid.
• RF Rear: A mass casualty traffic accident in the Tula region (14 injured) is dominating local RF news, providing a minor domestic distraction from military operations (TASS, 1857Z).

Enemy activity / threat assessment

• Multi-Domain Pressure: The RF is using a combination of tactical UAV strikes (1835Z-1856Z) and strategic diplomatic pressure via the Venezuela narrative (1835Z, 1846Z, 1853Z) to force UAF into a reactive posture.
• Unmanned Systems Escalation: Russian MoD is actively promoting the success of its "Unmanned Systems Forces" (1832Z), corroborating earlier intelligence regarding the deployment of logistics and strike UGVs/UAVs in the Pokrovsk sector.
• Economic Warfare Indicators: PM Orbán (Hungary) has introduced a narrative regarding oil price spikes linked to Venezuela (1846Z), likely part of a broader RF-aligned effort to increase Western anxiety over the economic costs of global instability.

Friendly activity (UAF)

• Leadership Continuity: The explicit backing of General Syrskyi (1833Z) provides much-needed tactical continuity during the announced "security block reset."
• Proactive Diplomacy: Engagement with the Trump team in Paris (1842Z) indicates the UAF/Government is attempting to de-risk potential US policy shifts before they occur.
• Counter-UAV Success: SBU "Alpha" units released footage of successful Shahed interceptions (1841Z), demonstrating continued effectiveness of specialized mobile fire groups despite high-saturation tactics.

Information environment / disinformation

• "Venezuela Focus" (Reflexive Control): RF and allied channels (Lavrov, TASS, Orbán) are aggressively prioritizing Venezuela to drown out the Stepnohirsk breach and the GRAU arsenal outloading indicators.
• Trump Rhetoric Weaponization: RF channels are selectively amplifying Trump's comments on Cuba and Colombia (1842Z) to portray US foreign policy as shifting toward a "Western Hemisphere first" focus, implying an abandonment of Ukraine.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

• MLCOA: Continued OWA-UAV harassment of Dnipro and Zaporizhzhia throughout the night to deplete AD interceptors, followed by a concentrated ballistic strike from the 2652nd GRAU Arsenal between 0200Z-0400Z.
• MDCOA: RF utilizes the UAV-driven AD distraction to launch a coordinated KAB strike from the new easterly launch vectors (Voronezh/Belgorod) against Kharkiv's critical infrastructure.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

1. Fundraising Deficit: Analysis required to determine if the reported "deficit" (1833Z) is a temporary dip or a trend that will impact FPV drone procurement for front-line units.
2. Trump Team Meeting Agenda: Identify the specific interlocutors for the Jan 5-6 Paris meeting to assess the likelihood of sustained military aid continuity.
3. UAV Vectoring: Triangulate the launch point of the UAV currently over western Zaporizhzhia (1856Z) to determine if it originated from occupied Crimea or the Primorsko-Akhtarsk vector.

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IPB Framework Analysis

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW The theater remains under high ballistic threat (SAR 22.01 indicator) while currently experiencing a "saturation phase" of UAV activity across the North, East, and South. The political-military leadership has successfully broadcast a message of stability (Syrskyi confirmation).

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS The RF is effectively using its MoD "Unmanned Systems Forces" to maintain pressure on the "last mile" of UAF logistics. Their diplomatic corps is fully committed to the Venezuela diversion, attempting to secure a geopolitical win that minimizes Western attention on the Donbas and Zaporizhzhia.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES UAF is maintaining high AD alert levels. The primary risk factor is the reported decline in volunteer-led logistics (Sternenko), which could lead to tactical shortages of FPV drones within the next 48-72 hours if not addressed.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT The environment is dominated by the Venezuela narrative. The DS belief for "Propaganda Effort" remains present, but the narrative is shifting from "US Intervention" to "Global Economic Instability" (via Orbán/Oil prices).

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

• Tactical: High probability of kinetic impact in Zaporizhzhia city limits within the next 2-4 hours based on the NE course of current UAV incursions.
• Strategic: The January diplomatic agenda is now the "center of gravity" for Ukrainian survival; the outcome of the Paris-Trump team talks will dictate UAF's defensive posture for Q1 2026.

//ANALYSIS ENDS//