Critical Infrastructure Strike (Mykolaiv): Massive overnight drone attack targeted critical infrastructure in Mykolaiv Oblast, resulting in power outages across several settlements in the Mykolaiv district (05:29Z, Operativnyi ZSU, HIGH).
MLRS Engagement (Nikopol): RF forces utilized BM-21 "Grad" RSZV to strike the Marhanets community, maintaining high-intensity harassment of the Dnipropetrovsk southern flank (05:30Z, Dnipro OVA, HIGH).
Air Defense Success (Dnipro): Ukrainian "East" Air Command (PvK Skhid) intercepted and destroyed 3 RF drones over the Dnipropetrovsk region (05:50Z, Dnipro OVA, HIGH).
Zheleznodorozhnoye Engagement Claim: RF sources claim the destruction of an elite UAF "Da Vinci Wolves" detachment (approx. 10 personnel) in Zheleznodorozhnoye, Zaporizhzhia. UNCONFIRMED (05:47Z, TASS, LOW).
Casualty Recovery (Kharkiv): Search and rescue operations in Kharkiv recovered the body of a woman from rubble following previous kinetic strikes, highlighting the continued humanitarian toll of RF stand-off munitions (05:36Z, Sternenko; 05:43Z, Operativnyi ZSU, HIGH).
Cross-Border Displacement IO: Pro-RF channels are amplifying a German media report (Münchner Merkur) suggesting potential deportation of draft-age Ukrainian men from Germany. UNCONFIRMED/IO (05:44Z, Operatsiya Z, LOW).
Operational picture (by sector)
Southern Sector (Mykolaiv/Odesa): The focus of RF aerial operations has shifted toward energy infrastructure in Mykolaiv. This follows the restoration efforts in Odesa (noted in the 05:28Z Sitrep), suggesting a sequential targeting strategy to de-stabilize the southern regional power grid.
Zaporizhzhia Sector: Following the 605 strikes reported earlier, RF claims of hitting elite units like the "Da Vinci Wolves" in Zheleznodorozhnoye suggest an attempt to frame the massive shelling as a targeted success against high-value assets rather than indiscriminate area fire.
Dnipropetrovsk/Nikopol Sector: Sustained pressure on the Marhanets/Nikopol axis via MLRS and drones. The interception of 3 UAVs indicates UAF AD remains active, though RF is attempting to bypass these defenses using saturation or the previously identified "IR-dazzler" variants (Ref: Daily Report 2026-01-02).
Kharkiv/Northern Sector: Recovery operations continue in Kharkiv city. No new kinetic incursions reported since the Hrabovske movement, though DeepState map updates (05:47Z) suggest ongoing frontline adjustments.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Kinetic Operations: RF is maintaining a "strike-recovery-strike" cycle. Having mapped Odesa’s resilience, they have pivoted to Mykolaiv. The use of Grad MLRS in Marhanets indicates a persistent intent to fix UAF forces along the Dnipro reservoir to prevent lateral movement.
Tactical Narrative Adaptation: RF media (TASS) is increasingly focusing on the claimed elimination of specific, well-known UAF units (e.g., Da Vinci Wolves). This is a tactical-level IO shift designed to erode the morale of specialized UAF formations.
Strategic Disruption: The targeting of critical infrastructure at night aims to maximize psychological stress on the civilian population and complicate emergency response under blackout conditions.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense Posture: PvK Skhid continues to demonstrate high efficiency against UAVs in the Dnipro AOR (3/3 intercepts), mitigating the risk to regional logistics hubs like Kryvyi Rih.
Civil Stability: Local authorities in Kryvyi Rih report the situation as "controlled" (05:39Z, Vilkul), indicating successful management of the rear-area security despite regional strikes.
Search and Rescue: UAF State Emergency Services (SES) remain heavily committed in Kharkiv, transitioning from fire suppression to recovery.
Information environment / disinformation
Draft-Age Deportation Narrative: The claim regarding German deportation of Ukrainian men is likely a coordinated IO effort to trigger anxiety among the Ukrainian diaspora and discourage the return of specialized personnel. This aligns with the "Münchner Merkur" citation, a common tactic of weaponizing Western media debates for domestic Ukrainian consumption.
Internal Security Signaling: Reports of 100% robbery solving rates in Kyiv (05:40Z, RBK-Ukraine) function as a "Blue Force" morale booster, emphasizing domestic stability despite the multi-front war.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely Course of Action): Continued OWA-UAV pressure on Mykolaiv and Kherson energy nodes to widen the blackout zone. RF will likely use the results of the "Grad" strikes on Marhanets to conduct BDA for potential small-boat or cross-reservoir probing.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous Course of Action): Integration of the newly identified "IR-dazzler" Shaheds with Iskander-M strikes on Mykolaiv's primary power substations while UAF MFGs are preoccupied with drone interceptions.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
BDA Zheleznodorozhnoye: Immediate requirement for SIGINT or personnel reporting to confirm the status of the "Da Vinci Wolves" detachment. Determine if TASS claims are a fabrication or indicative of a successful RF FPV/Artillery strike.
Mykolaiv Energy Impact: Quantify the extent of the blackout in Mykolaiv district. Is it a localized distribution failure or a transmission-level hit?
Hrabovske Sector Status: Following the DeepState map update, confirm if the "Sever" Group has consolidated positions on the Ukrainian side of the border or if the incursion remains a "gray zone" engagement.
