New Aerial Wave (Mykolaiv): Approximately 7 OWA-UAVs ("Shaheds") confirmed transiting the Inhulka river, moving toward Nova Odesa (2026-01-03 00:37Z, Николаевский Ванёк; 00:46Z, Air Force UA, HIGH).
RF Rhetorical Escalation: State Duma Speaker Volodin issued a statement blaming Ukraine and European sponsors for "blood of the dead" in the Kherson region (2026-01-03 00:49Z, Операция Z, MEDIUM).
Rear-Area Incident (RF): A large-scale fire (3,000 sq. m) is reported in shopping pavilions in Sergiev Posad, Moscow region; cause not yet determined (2026-01-03 00:52Z, TASS, HIGH).
Odesa Post-Kinetic Status: Following the 00:25Z explosion, air defense remains active; no secondary strikes reported in the last 30 minutes, but threat remains via the new Mykolaiv wave.
Operational picture (by sector)
Southern Sector (Mykolaiv/Odesa): The aerial threat is multi-axial. While Odesa was the primary target 30 minutes ago, a distinct group of 7 UAVs is now penetrating the Mykolaiv Oblast from the east/southeast (Inhulka vector), tracking toward Nova Odesa. This indicates a "split-stream" tactic to force UAF Mobile Fire Groups (MFGs) to choose between protecting port infrastructure and inland transit hubs.
Southern Sector (Kherson - Occupied): RF political rhetoric suggests a potential kinetic event occurred or is being manufactured as a pretext for "retaliatory" strikes.
RF Rear (Moscow Region): The Sergiev Posad fire represents a significant domestic disruption. Given the city's strategic importance (military-industrial sites and the 12th Main Directorate/GUMO presence nearby), any fire of this scale is assessed for potential sabotage (UNCONFIRMED).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
UAV Persistence: The RF is maintaining a high-tempo loitering presence. The detection of 7 units moving toward Nova Odesa suggests these units may be intended to loop around to Odesa from a different angle or target inland logistics nodes.
Technological Context: Per the previous daily report, these units are highly likely to be equipped with IR-dazzlers. MFGs in the Nova Odesa area are at increased risk of sensor interference.
Information Operations: Volodin’s statement aligns with the "tit-for-tat" escalation dynamic noted in the daily report. RF is likely pre-positioning narrative justification for a dawn missile strike on Ukrainian decision-making centers or energy hubs.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense Coordination: Ukrainian Air Force and local monitoring channels are providing high-fidelity tracking of the Mykolaiv wave.
Damage Mitigation: SAR operations continue in Kharkiv and Odesa (post-strike) to stabilize civilian areas.
Information environment / disinformation
"Retaliation" Narrative: The Volodin statement is a clear cognitive operation aimed at Western audiences (via "European sponsors" mention) to frame Ukrainian defensive strikes on occupied territories as "terrorism."
RF Domestic Suppression: TASS is framing the Sergiev Posad fire as a civil emergency (shopping pavilions) to minimize speculation regarding potential security breaches in the Moscow region.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely Course of Action): The 7 UAVs currently in Mykolaiv will attempt to penetrate the Odesa-Mykolaiv defensive belt before 0300Z. RF will follow these "probing" waves with a coordinated ballistic or cruise missile strike at first light (0500Z-0650Z) targeting energy infrastructure.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous Course of Action): RF utilizes the distraction of the Nova Odesa UAV wave to launch a high-speed Kinzhal or Iskander-M strike against Odesa’s port or command facilities while MFGs are occupied with low-altitude targets.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Sergiev Posad Forensics: Requesting HUMINT/SIGINT to determine if the fire was near the Zagorsk Optical-Mechanical Plant or other defense-related infrastructure.
Kherson Event Verification: Seek clarification on the "Kherson attack" mentioned by Volodin. Is this a reference to a specific UAF HIMARS strike, or a fabricated incident?
UAV Payload Verification: Confirm if the 7 UAVs in the Mykolaiv wave are exhibiting the same IR-dazzler signatures as previous waves.
