Kinetic Assault on Kyiv: Active OWA-UAV (Shahed) strike in progress targeting the capital; multiple explosions reported in Kyiv and Brovary (2034Z-2051Z, Air Force ZSU/KMVA, HIGH).
Critical Infrastructure Target:UNCONFIRMED reports indicate the Russian Federation (RF) is specifically targeting TPP-5 (Thermal Power Plant) in Kyiv (2054Z, Operatsiya Z, LOW).
Intelligence Leadership Shift: Oleksandr Kononenko appointed as the new Head of the Foreign Intelligence Service (SZR), filling the vacancy left by Oleg Ivashchenko’s move to GUR (2036Z, Operativnyi ZSU, HIGH).
SBU Command Instability: Reports suggest President Zelenskyy is considering the dismissal of SBU Head Vasyl Malyuk (2045Z, RBK-Ukraine, MEDIUM).
Aerial Vector Expansion: OWA-UAVs detected moving south through Shevchenkove (Kharkiv region), indicating a multi-pronged flight path intended to bypass localized air defenses (2030Z, Air Force ZSU, HIGH).
Information Sabotage: RF state media is alleging that drones involved in strikes on Khorly were assembled using components from German firm Rheinmetall (2047Z, TASS, MEDIUM).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The tactical situation has escalated to an active engagement in the Kyiv metropolitan area. RF forces are executing the "saturation" phase of the aerial campaign predicted in previous reports. The focus has shifted from reconnaissance/pathfinding to terminal attack runs against the capital's energy infrastructure. Simultaneously, the Ukrainian government is undergoing a "comprehensive overhaul" (Zelenskyy, 2030Z) of its security architecture, which currently involves the MoD, GUR, SZR, and potentially the SBU.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
Air Operations: At least five (5) OWA-UAVs were confirmed on a terminal course toward Kyiv/Brovary as of 2040Z. The flight path from the east (Boryspil/Brovary) suggests a deliberate attempt to penetrate the capital's air defense (AD) bubble from its most heavily defended vector, possibly to test the "IR-dazzler" effectiveness noted in earlier daily reports.
Strategic Targeting: The reported focus on TPP-5 (2054Z) aligns with the broader RF objective of degrading energy resilience during peak winter loads.
Hybrid/Info Ops: TASS is escalating efforts to implicate Western defense contractors (Rheinmetall) in specific kinetic incidents. This is a clear attempt to provide Moscow with "evidence" for diplomatic protests or to justify strikes against Western logistics hubs. The protest to the Austrian MFA regarding Stepan Bandera’s birthday (2031Z) is a routine "denazification" narrative intended for domestic RF consumption.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
C2 Transitions: The appointment of Oleksandr Kononenko to the SZR completes the immediate restructuring of the intelligence community. This rapid backfilling suggests a pre-planned "reboot" rather than reactive firing. However, the rumor regarding SBU Head Malyuk (2045Z) introduces a layer of uncertainty regarding internal security continuity during an active air raid.
Air Defense Posture: Mobile Fire Groups (MFGs) and traditional AD units are currently engaged over Kyiv. "Explosions" reported (2051Z) likely indicate both kinetic interceptions and potential impacts.
Administrative Resilience: President Zelenskyy’s address (2030Z) confirms that the "personnel wave" is intended to scale up state institution results, signaling a shift toward higher-efficiency management in the 2026 campaign.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
RF Propaganda: Significant focus on "criminalizing" Ukrainian database activities (Myrotvorets) involving minors (2043Z) to frame Ukraine as a "terrorist state" on the international stage.
Internal Morale: Ukrainian social media (Operativnyi ZSU, 2054Z) shows a cautious optimism regarding leadership changes, framing them as a necessary "cleansing" of the state apparatus.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): The OWA-UAV attack on Kyiv will continue for the next 2 hours. Once AD positions are revealed or depleted by the "mope-wave," RF may launch a follow-on wave of Kh-101 or Kalibr cruise missiles to strike the fixed coordinates of energy infrastructure (TPP-5).
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF utilizes the reported command transition in the SZR/SBU to activate sleeper cells or sabotage groups within Kyiv to coincide with the aerial strike, aiming to disrupt emergency response to infrastructure damage.
BDI (Battle Damage Assessment): Priority 1 is confirming the status of TPP-5. If impacted, quantify the loss of generation capacity for the Kyiv grid.
SBU Status: Confirm if the SBU leadership change is a "dismissal for cause" or part of the planned strategic rotation.
Dazzler Forensics: If any UAVs are downed in the Kyiv/Brovary sector, immediate recovery of IR-optical modules is required to confirm the power output of the "dazzler" payloads.
