Deep Strike Success: UAF OWA-UAVs (FP-2 type) successfully struck a major oil depot in Rovenky, Luhansk region; satellite imagery confirms most storage tanks are destroyed or heavily damaged (Оперативний ЗСУ, 1854Z, HIGH).
Kharkiv Mass Casualty Update: Recovery efforts in Kharkiv have located the body of a child (boy) under rubble from recent Iskander/KAB strikes (Synyehubov/Terekhov, 1911Z-1922Z, HIGH).
Sustained Aerial Assault: RF tactical aviation has initiated fresh launches of Guided Aerial Bombs (KAB) against targets in Kharkiv region (Air Force ZSU, 1915Z, HIGH).
Tactical Interception Success: National Guard of Ukraine (NGU) "Omega" special unit successfully intercepted Russian "Molniya" tactical drones (ЦАПЛІЄНКО, 1914Z, HIGH).
RF Leadership Signaling: Ramzan Kadyrov released video footage attending a mosque opening in Shatoy, likely a coordinated "proof-of-life" effort to debunk hospitalization rumors (Kadyrov_95, 1923Z, MEDIUM).
Domestic Stability (Kyiv): Scheduled power outages have been canceled for the remainder of the day, indicating grid stabilization (Оперативний ЗСУ, 1859Z, HIGH).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational tempo is defined by a "tit-for-tat" deep strike cycle. While the RF continues to pound Kharkiv with KABs and ballistic missiles (resulting in confirmed civilian child fatalities), the UAF has achieved a significant logistical victory by neutralizing the Rovenky oil depot in occupied Luhansk. This strike directly impacts the fuel supply for the RF’s "Zapad" and "Yug" groupings. In the information domain, the Kremlin is attempting to project stability via Kadyrov's public appearance while facing minor internal friction from nationalist bloggers regarding the slow progress of the "Special Military Operation."
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
Air Operations: The shift back to KAB (Guided Aerial Bomb) strikes on Kharkiv (1915Z) indicates a persistent effort to suppress UAF defenses and terrorize the civilian population. KABs remain difficult to intercept compared to Shahed-type UAVs.
Logistics & Sustainment: The destruction of the Rovenky oil depot (1854Z) creates a localized fuel deficit in the Luhansk sector. Expect the RF to prioritize the protection of alternate fuel hubs (e.g., Starobilsk or Millerovo) and potentially increase rail-based fuel deliveries.
Tactical Adaptations: The continued use of "Molniya" drones suggests the RF is relying on low-cost, light-tactical UAVs for front-line reconnaissance, though Ukrainian NGU units are demonstrating improved interception TTPs (1914Z).
Internal RF Stability: Reports of indiscipline (assaults by students in Novosibirsk and a soldier in Arkhangelsk) suggest localized social friction, though not yet at a level to impact front-line effectiveness.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
Strike Capability: The use of FP-2 drones for the Rovenky strike demonstrates UAF's ability to penetrate occupied airspace and hit high-value, fixed logistics nodes with precision.
Air Defense (AD): NGU "Omega" and 81st Airmobile Brigade (Sova FM) are successfully integrating drone-on-drone interception TTPs to counter RF tactical recon.
Energy Resilience: The cancellation of outages in Kyiv (1859Z) reflects high repair-cycle efficiency and perhaps a temporary lull in heavy missile pressure on the central grid.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
Humanitarian Impact: The discovery of the child's body in Kharkiv (1911Z) will likely serve as a focal point for Ukrainian strategic communications to secure further Western AD support.
RF Reflexive Control: Kadyrov’s mosque appearance (1923Z) is a textbook counter-narrative operation. Despite the video, rumors of his health may persist until more spontaneous public appearances occur.
Internal RF Criticism: "Alex Parker Returns" (1926Z) reflects a persistent strain of ultra-nationalist dissatisfaction with the RF leadership ("Pypa"), suggesting that while the regime is stable, it remains vulnerable to "victory-not-fast-enough" critiques.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will continue KAB strikes on Kharkiv throughout the night (030000Z - 030600Z JAN) to hamper recovery efforts and maintain psychological pressure.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF conducts a retaliatory long-range strike against Ukrainian energy or fuel infrastructure in central Ukraine in direct response to the Rovenky depot destruction.
Tactical Trend: Expect increased UAF focus on targeting RF tactical drone launch sites following the successful interception of "Molniya" units.
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
Rovenky Damage Assessment: BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) required to determine the exact volume of fuel lost and the estimated time to restore the depot's functionality.
KAB Launch Platforms: Identify the specific airfields (e.g., Baltimor or Millerovo) used for the latest Kharkiv KAB strikes to facilitate potential counter-strikes.
FP-2 Drone Origin: Determine if the FP-2 drones used in Rovenky represent a new domestic production surge or a modified existing platform.
