Counter-Drone Adaptation (RF): Russian forces are deploying static and mobile infrared (IR) searchlights/projectors designed to blind Ukrainian interceptor drones and low-flying aviation (Оперативний ЗСУ, 1541Z, HIGH).
Deep Strike (UAF): Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SBS) successfully struck a major fuel and lubricant (POL) storage base in occupied Luhansk (РБК-Україна, 1557Z; Оперативний ЗСУ, 1600Z, HIGH).
Energy Crisis: Ukrenergo has confirmed nationwide hourly power outages and industrial power limits for tomorrow, Jan 3, following recent strikes on infrastructure (РБК-Україна, 1556Z; Оперативний ЗСУ, 1557Z, HIGH).
Southern Axis (Huliaipole): RF 5th Army claims to have captured a group of Ukrainian POWs; 14th Spetsnaz Brigade reported destroying a UAF transport (buggy) during a unit rotation (Colonelcassad, 1535Z; Воин DV, 1600Z, MEDIUM).
Kharkiv Assessment: Post-strike analysis of central Kharkiv confirms the destruction of a large commercial building; RF sources claim it served as a UAF barracks/ammunition depot, though this remains unverified (Colonelcassad, 1549Z; РБК-Україна, 1553Z; Alex Parker Returns, 1600Z, MEDIUM).
Operational picture (by sector)
Pokrovsk Sector: Remained the primary focus of attritional warfare. UAF 425th "Skelya" and volunteer units report heavy RF infantry losses to FPV drones, describing the area as a "zone of continuous losses" for the enemy (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, 1551Z; STERNENKO, 1601Z).
Zaporizhzhia/Huliaipole: Increased localized activity. RF Spetsnaz are actively targeting UAF tactical logistics and rotations using FPV munitions, suggesting a tightening of the reconnaissance-strike complex in this sector (Воин DV, 1600Z).
Luhansk (Occupied): UAF deep strike capability demonstrated against POL infrastructure. This is likely intended to disrupt RF mechanized maneuvers in the Donbas by targeting the "bottleneck" of fuel logistics.
Kharkiv: Civil authorities and drone footage confirm significant structural damage to the city center. Energy infrastructure remains under extreme stress.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Technological Adaptation: The deployment of IR searchlights (Оперативний ЗСУ, 1541Z) directly complements the earlier reported "IR-dazzler" Shahed OWA-UAVs. Assessment: RF is implementing a multi-layered counter-optical strategy to negate UAF’s night-vision superiority and drone-interception effectiveness. This represents a systemic tactical shift rather than an isolated experiment.
Ground Operations: RF maintains high-tempo infantry assaults in Pokrovsk while transitioning to "target of opportunity" strikes against UAF rotations in the South (Zaporizhzhia).
Aviation/Missile: RF continues to utilize "objective control" drone footage to refine strike packages against urban centers (Alex Parker Returns, 1600Z), focusing on high-value targets like suspected ammo depots.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Strategic Logistics Interdiction: UAF continues to prioritize the destruction of RF fuel and ammunition nodes in the rear (Luhansk strike).
Drone Operations: Despite RF countermeasures, UAF drone units (425th "Skelya") maintain high lethality against RF personnel in the Pokrovsk sector.
Information Operations: UAF sources are highlighting "legendary" logistical personnel (e.g., driver "Sova") to maintain domestic morale amid mounting energy and frontline pressure (Президентська бригада ЗСУ, 1544Z).
Information environment / disinformation
"Khorly Strike" Narrative: RF state media (TASS) is heavily promoting stories of civilian casualties (specifically a 12-year-old child) in Khorly to frame UAF strikes as "terrorist" acts (ТАСС, 1553Z).
Budanov Appointment: Pro-Russian mil-bloggers (WarGonzo) are analyzing the HUR leadership change as a sign of potential internal Ukrainian instability or a shift in deep-strike strategy (WarGonzo, 1605Z).
AI-Generated Propaganda: Evidence suggests RF "Z-channels" are experimenting with neural networks for faster content creation and potential disinformation generation (Fighterbomber, 1539Z).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will continue to leverage the "IR-dazzler/projector" combination during night operations to degrade UAF Mobile Fire Groups (MFGs) and drone pilots.
Energy/Logistics: With nationwide blackouts scheduled, expect localized social friction and a potential increase in RF cyber-ops targeting the energy management grid.
Tactical Shift: Increased RF Spetsnaz activity in the Huliaipole area suggests a possible attempt to widen the front or conduct a local diversionary push.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
IR Projector Technical Specs: Determine the effective range and frequency of the new Russian IR projectors to develop electronic or optical filters for UAF drones.
Luhansk Strike BDA: Battle Damage Assessment (IMINT) required to confirm the percentage of fuel destroyed at the Luhansk POL base to estimate the impact on RF mechanized units.
Hrabovske Salient: Lack of new data on the 15th Tank Regiment in the Sumy direction. Need to confirm if they have moved from assembly areas to jump-off positions.
