Strategic Leadership Realignment: President Zelenskyy has reportedly appointed HUR (Main Intelligence Directorate) Chief Kyrylo Budanov as the new Head of the Office of the President (OP), replacing Andriy Yermak. Budanov is tasked with updating strategic defense and state development foundations (1138Z, 1143Z, RBK-Ukraine/Sternenko/Operativnyi ZSU, HIGH).
Casualty Surge in Khorly Strike: Russian-installed officials in Kherson report the death toll from the Khorly cafe/hotel strike has risen to 27 (some sources claim 28), including children and one Serbian national (1136Z, 1150Z, 1156Z, TASS/Mash/Alex Parker, MEDIUM/UNCONFIRMED).
Zaporizhzhia Aerial Assault: Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration confirmed nine (9) Russian drone strikes targeting the city overnight (1145Z, Zaporizhzhia OVA, HIGH).
Frontline Geometry Shift: DeepState has issued a tactical map update, indicating recent changes in control measures or frontline positions (1201Z, DeepState, HIGH).
Tactical Losses (Huliaipole): Pro-Russian sources released footage of a captured serviceman from the UAF 154th Separate Mechanized Brigade in the Huliaipole sector (1203Z, Voin DV, MEDIUM).
RDK Counter-Intelligence Tensions: The Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs has re-issued a search warrant for RDK commander Denis Kapustin, directly following UAF HUR's confirmation that he survived a prior liquidation attempt (1150Z, ASTRA, HIGH).
Operational picture (by sector)
Kyiv / Strategic Center: The appointment of Kyrylo Budanov to lead the OP signals a likely shift toward a more intelligence-led and asymmetric national defense strategy. The dismissal of Yermak (allegedly over corruption per RF sources, though unconfirmed by UAF) indicates a potential purge of internal friction points to streamline the command vertical (1147Z, TASS).
Zaporizhzhia / Southern Axis: The sector remains a focal point for RF drone operations. The nine UAV strikes on Zaporizhzhia city (1145Z) suggest a persistent effort to degrade regional logistics and morale. In Huliaipole, the reported capture of a UAF 154th Bde member suggests RF reconnaissance-in-force or localized infantry assaults are active.
Kherson / Dnipro River: RF is heavily focusing on the "Khorly Incident." Claims of three UAF UAVs carrying 20kg of TNT each (1151Z, TASS) are being used to solidify the "terrorism" narrative.
Tactical FPV Adaptation: The RF MoD highlighted the "Rubikon" center, a specialized FPV drone unit capable of intercepting UAF UAVs and striking vehicles (1201Z). This indicates a maturing RF capability in drone-on-drone engagement.
Aviation Disposition: Russian mil-bloggers (Fighterbomber) are circulating imagery of helicopter formations in winter conditions, suggesting readiness for rotary-wing support or tactical insertions despite weather (1125Z, MEDIUM).
Information Warfare Strategy: The RF MoD's transition to a weekly "Highlights" summary (1134Z) is likely intended to consolidate small tactical gains into a narrative of steady progress while obscuring daily attrition rates.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Strategic Directives: President Zelenskyy has instructed the new Head of the OP to coordinate with the NSDC Secretary to present a revised "Strategic Foundations of Defense" (1143Z, Operativnyi ZSU). This suggests a looming overhaul of the current mobilization or defensive posture.
Defensive Resilience: Despite heavy UAV bombardment in Zaporizhzhia and the strategic strikes reported in the previous sitrep, UAF tactical units (25th Airborne) continue to execute precision strikes on enemy concentrations.
Social Stability: Dnipropetrovsk RMA continues to project a narrative of domestic stability and social welfare progress to maintain civilian morale amidst the ongoing air campaign (1154Z, Dnipro ODA).
Information environment / disinformation
"Retaliation" Justification: RF sources are aggressively inflating the Khorly strike details (claiming a Serbian victim and child casualties) to provide international and domestic justification for the Kinzhal strikes reported earlier (1156Z, Mash).
Political Destabilization: Russian state media and "Z-channels" (Colonelcassad, Alex Parker) are framing the Budanov appointment as a desperate move by a "Cocaine Fuhrer" (Zelenskyy) to maintain power, attempting to trigger friction within the Ukrainian government (1140Z, 1141Z).
RDK Status: The RF re-announcement of the search for Kapustin (1150Z) is a face-saving measure to counter the HUR-released footage showing him alive, intended to maintain the perception of RF investigative effectiveness.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will continue to leverage the Khorly casualty numbers to justify a second wave of missile/UAV strikes tonight (02-03 JAN), likely targeting Odesa or the Kyiv energy ring.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF forces exploit the leadership transition in the OP and potential confusion in the chain of command to launch a mechanized push in the Huliaipole or Pokrovsk sectors.
Strategic Shift: Expect an official UAF announcement regarding the new "Strategic Foundations of Defense" which may include updated engagement rules for deep strikes into RF territory.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
GUR Leadership: Identification of the successor to Kyrylo Budanov as Head of HUR; this will determine the continuity of Ukrainian deep-strike operations.
Frontline Adjustments: Confirmation of the specific territorial changes reflected in the 1201Z DeepState map update, particularly in the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia sectors.
Huliaipole POW Verification: Determine if the capture of the 154th Bde soldier was an isolated incident or part of a larger platoon-level collapse in that sector.
