Information Operation (Narrative Escalation): Russian-installed official Vladimir Saldo is aggressively promoting a narrative that the Ukrainian population "mourns" Russian casualties from the Khorly "terrorist attack," attempting to decouple the Ukrainian public from the Kyiv leadership (1107Z, TASS, HIGH).
External Geopolitical Monitoring: Russian mil-bloggers (Rybar) are analyzing Iranian domestic unrest as being deeper than currency fluctuations, potentially monitoring for impacts on the RF-Iran military-industrial supply chain (1107Z, Rybar, MEDIUM).
Dnipropetrovsk Border Incursion (Ongoing): No new tactical data since 1047Z; RF activity remains reported near Filiia. Sector remains a high-priority monitoring zone for potential administrative border breach (1047Z, Сливочный каприз, MEDIUM).
Pokrovsk Sector Defense: UAF 7th Air Assault Corps maintains control after successfully interdicting RF assembly points for the Hryshyne assault (1104Z, Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH).
Operational picture (by sector)
Donetsk/Dnipropetrovsk Border: The tactical situation at the Filiia/Novopavlivka axis is critical. RF forces are attempting to expand the combat zone into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast to outflank the Pokrovsk-Velyka Novosilka defensive line.
Pokrovsk Sector: UAF "Active Defense" is effectively preventing RF force concentrations near Hryshyne. However, RF is adapting by using NRTC (Robotic Fire Control Systems) to bypass mud-clogged avenues of approach.
Zaporizhzhia: OWA-UAV (Shahed) activity continues to target the city. UNCONFIRMED reports of UAF "retreats" in the southern sector (TASS/CNN) are currently assessed as disinformation or tactical repositioning until corroborated by ground-level ISR.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Strategic Logistics: The 260th GRAU Arsenal remains at a critical logistics score (48.22), indicating a massive munitions staging operation is complete.
Narrative Construction: The RF is synchronized across its information domain. By using proxy officials (Saldo) and state media (TASS) to highlight "civilian casualties" in Khorly and Tarasovka, Moscow is finalizing the psychological groundwork for a "retaliation" strike package.
Tactical Adaptation: The deployment of "Kurier" UGVs and NRTC systems suggests the RF is transitioning to a hybrid robotic/infantry assault model to maintain momentum through the "rasputitsa" (mud) season.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Precision Attrition: The "Ivan Franko Group" and other FPV-focused units continue to exploit the lack of mobile RF EW to strike logistics nodes in the Donetsk rear.
Air Defense (AD) Strategy: Mobile Fire Groups (MFGs) and specialized aviation (Yak-52) are being prioritized for OWA-UAV intercepts to conserve high-end interceptors for the anticipated cruise/ballistic missile wave.
Information environment / disinformation
Reflexive Control: The Saldo statement (1107Z) is a calculated attempt to demoralize UAF troops by suggesting their own families sympathize with the enemy. This is a standard hybrid warfare tactic intended to incite internal friction.
Fake Narrative Tracking: The "Novgorod residence strike" and "Khorly terrorist attack" are being treated by UAF Center for Countering Disinformation (CPD) as fabricated pretexts for the upcoming saturation strike.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): A massive, multi-vector aerial assault (Shahed/Kalibr/Iskander) targeting the Kyiv energy ring and Western GLOCs (specifically rail infrastructure near the Polish/Hungarian borders) is expected to commence at nightfall.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF mechanized elements, supported by massed UGV deployments, achieve a tactical breakthrough at Filiia, establishing a bridgehead in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and forcing a multi-sector UAF withdrawal to protect the rail corridor.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Iran Supply Chain: Monitor for any disruption in OWA-UAV deliveries or technical support resulting from the reported Iranian domestic unrest (1107Z, Rybar).
Filiia Composition: Immediate requirement for high-resolution SAR or drone recon of the Filiia vector to determine if RF has committed operational reserves or if it remains a tactical diversion.
Southern Sector Verification: Cross-reference "CNN/TASS" claims of UAF retreat in Zaporizhzhia with 128th Mountain Assault Brigade and other local units.
