CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE: Nationwide emergency and scheduled power shutdowns implemented across all Ukrainian oblasts following overnight strikes (RBC-UA, 0738Z, HIGH).
AERIAL BOMBARDMENT ESCALATION: Confirmed launches of Guided Aerial Bombs (KAB) against three strategic sectors: Donetsk (0737Z), Kharkiv (0741Z), and Sumy (0748Z) (UAF Air Force, HIGH).
TACTICAL DRONE SWARMS: Defensive units in the Pokrovsk sector report high-intensity FPV drone attacks, described as "daily saturation" (Butusov Plus, 0753Z, MEDIUM).
KHORLY "RETALIATION" PRETEXT: Russian-installed authorities in occupied Kherson have declared Jan 2-3 as days of mourning for the Khorly incident; RF rhetoric is escalating toward a "strong military response" (Colonelcassad, 0745Z; Basurin, 0743Z, MEDIUM).
CYBER OPERATIONS: RF-aligned sources report a hacker attack on the website listing victims of the Khorly strike was successfully repelled (TASS, 0742Z, LOW).
STRATEGIC LOGISTICS: A sanctioned Russian tanker ("Marinera"), previously evading US tracking, has re-flagged to Russia and is moving north at max speed; India has concurrently resumed imports of Russian oil (ASTRA/RBC-UA, 0755Z-0757Z, MEDIUM).
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Axis (Kharkiv & Sumy):
RF tactical aviation is actively utilizing KABs to strike staging areas and civilian infrastructure. This follows the high-speed target impact reported in Kharkiv at 0721Z. The focus on Sumy suggests a continued effort to disrupt UAF cross-border logistics and artillery positions.
Eastern Axis (Donetsk/Pokrovsk):
Pokrovsk: Situation remains critical. UAF defenders are facing persistent drone saturation. RF 68th Separate Reconnaissance Battalion (ORB) confirmed strikes on UAF logistics (trucks) and communication antennas near Raiske, utilizing specialized drone units (NM DNR, 0805Z).
KAB Strikes: Broad-spectrum aerial bombardment across the Donetsk oblast border intended to soften defensive lines ahead of localized ground pushes.
Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson):
Southern Defense Forces issued a general operational update (0736Z), maintaining a high alert status.
RF propaganda is leveraging a CNN report to claim the UAF position in the South is "worsening daily," likely an attempt to degrade morale in the Kherson/Zaporizhzhia sectors (Operatsiya Z, 0745Z).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Aviation: Sustained KAB sorties across the northern and eastern fronts indicate the RF is maintaining high sortie rates to compensate for stalled ground maneuvers.
Drone Integration: The RF 68th ORB's documented success against antennas and soft-skinned vehicles highlights an increased focus on degrading UAF C2 (Command and Control) and tactical logistics at the company/battalion level.
Narrative Shaping: The declaration of mourning in Kherson (0745Z) and the emotional appeals for "revenge" (0743Z) suggest the RF is finalizing the psychological groundwork for a large-scale missile or "decapitation" strike as predicted in the previous 24h outlook.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Grid Management: Ukrenergo and regional operators have shifted to emergency load shedding to stabilize the national energy ring following damage to generation/transmission nodes.
Defensive Persistence: UAF units in Pokrovsk are successfully filming and documenting enemy tactics despite saturation, providing critical SIGINT/HUMINT on RF drone operating procedures.
Cyber Defense: Potential involvement in the disruption of RF-aligned casualty websites in Kherson, aimed at complicating RF propaganda efforts regarding the Khorly incident.
Information environment / disinformation
Territorial Data: RF sources continue to recirculate a claim of 4,336 sq km of territory gained in 2025, attributing the data to the Ukrainian "DeepState" map (Dnevnik Desantnika, 0745Z). UNCONFIRMED/LOW CONFIDENCE. This is likely a coordinated effort to frame the start of 2026 as a period of Ukrainian retreat.
Sanctions Evasion: Reports of the tanker "Marinera" (formerly "Bella 1") re-flagging to Russia and India resuming imports are being used to signal the failure of Western maritime price caps and energy isolation (ASTRA, 0755Z).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Continued KAB strikes on Kharkiv, Sumy, and Pokrovsk. Expect a second wave of OWA-UAV (Shahed) strikes tonight, utilizing the energy grid's current instability to maximize psychological and physical impact.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF utilizes the Khorly mourning period as a justification for a precision missile strike on UAF "decision-making centers" or high-profile drone units (e.g., "Magyar's Birds") within the next 12 hours.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
BATTLE DAMAGE ASSESSMENT (BDA): Urgent requirement for ground-truth assessment of the energy infrastructure hit overnight to determine the duration of the current power restrictions.
KHORLY FORENSICS: Determine the exact nature of the munitions used in the Khorly incident to counter the "terrorist attack" narrative currently being used for mobilization.
POKROVSK ISR: Identify the launch points for the high-density FPV swarms targeting the Pokrovsk sector to enable counter-battery or electronic warfare (EW) suppression.
TANKER TRACKING: Monitor the "Marinera" destination to identify new maritime logistics hubs or "dark fleet" transshipment points in northern waters.
