STRATEGIC UAV OFFENSIVE (RF REAR): RF Ministry of Defense claims to have intercepted 64 Ukrainian UAVs overnight across multiple Russian regions (0421Z, TASS; 0433Z, ASTRA; HIGH confidence of claim, LOW confidence of interception count).
TACTICAL AIRSTRIKE: RF Su-34 aircraft conducted strikes using stand-off munitions against UAF personnel and equipment concentrations (0412Z, TASS/MoD, MEDIUM).
KINETIC EVENT (KHERSON OBLAST): Reports indicate a "tragedy" or high-casualty event in occupied Kherson Oblast, potentially a UAF strike on RF-aligned personnel or collaborators (0415Z, Kotsnews, UNCONFIRMED/LOW).
AIR THREAT STATUS (ZAPORIZHZHIA): Air raid alarms cleared as of 0429Z (Zaporizhzhia OVA, HIGH).
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Sector (Kharkiv/Lyman): RF continues to leverage tactical aviation (Su-34) to suppress UAF staging areas. This follows previous reports of RF attempts to destroy UAF assault groups in this sector.
Eastern Sector (Donbas): High-frequency FPV drone usage by RF-aligned forces is increasingly targeting the "last mile" of UAF logistics. This suggests a concerted effort to starve frontline units of ammunition and supplies following the critical spike in RF logistics activity noted at the 260th GRAU Arsenal.
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson): The situation in Kherson is volatile; emotional reactions from RF-aligned commentators suggest a successful UAF precision strike on a sensitive target. In Zaporizhzhia, the lifting of air raid sirens indicates a temporary pause in the RF's "saturation strike" wave mentioned in the previous daily report.
RF Rear (Deep Strike): The launch of 64 UAVs by Ukraine represents a significant mass-attack intended to overwhelm RF air defenses. This likely targeted the logistics and aviation hubs identified in the 24h context (e.g., AB Voronezh Malshevo).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Aviation: The Su-34 strike (0412Z) confirms the RF is maintaining a high sortie rate to support ground operations. The use of video evidence for this strike indicates a high priority on domestic propaganda and demonstrating competence.
Logistics Warfare: The shift toward FPV-based interdiction of UAF logistics (0405Z) indicates RF adaptation to UAF's decentralized supply lines.
Morale Operations: VDV-affiliated channels continue to push "Airborne Brotherhood" narratives (0431Z), likely to maintain cohesion within elite units currently bearing the brunt of offensive operations.
C2/Internal Security: Following the arrest of the Zaporizhzhia Deputy Governor (previous sitrep), the RF is likely experiencing administrative friction, which may explain the focus on "easy win" tactical strikes over complex maneuvers.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Deep Strike Capability: UAF has demonstrated the ability to launch large-scale, multi-vector UAV raids (64+ units). This indicates a high level of coordination and an intent to suppress RF strike platforms before they can launch the "saturation strike" forecasted in the daily report.
Precision Fires: The Kherson incident suggests UAF remains capable of high-impact strikes in occupied territories, likely utilizing long-range drones or HIMARS to target RF concentrations.
Strategic Signaling: The GS AFU's modified casualty report (extending to 2026) functions as a psychological operation, signaling Ukrainian resolve for a multi-year war of attrition (0432Z, HIGH).
Information environment / disinformation
Loss Narratives: RF state media is heavily emphasizing the "64 UAVs intercepted" figure to project defensive air superiority, regardless of the actual damage sustained on the ground.
Emotional Exploitation: RF milbloggers are attempting to frame UAF strikes in Kherson as "tragedies," likely to support the "retaliation" narrative (Tarasovka/Khorly) used to justify strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): RF will launch a retaliatory missile/UAV wave targeting Western Ukraine and Kyiv in response to the overnight UAV raid on RF territory. Ground forces will attempt to exploit Su-34 strikes in the Lyman sector.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): Synchronized RF offensive in the Lyman and Zaporizhzhia sectors while UAF air defense is saturated by a combined Kalibr/Kh-101/Shahed wave, specifically targeting GLOCs (Budapest-Kyiv rail line).
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
BDA (Battle Damage Assessment): Determine the actual impact of the 64-UAV raid on RF airbases and the 260th GRAU Arsenal.
KHERSON EVENT: Confirm the target and casualty count of the kinetic event in Kherson Oblast (0415Z) to assess impact on RF occupation command.
LOGISTICAL INTEGRITY: Assess the degree of disruption to UAF frontline supplies caused by RF FPV drone strikes (0405Z).
INTELLIGENCE PREPARATION OF THE BATTLEFIELD (IPB) SUMMARY
SITUATION OVERVIEW: The conflict has entered a high-intensity phase of "strike and counter-strike." UAF is targeting RF staging and AD in depth, while RF is focusing on tactical interdiction and personnel attrition via aviation.
ENEMY ANALYSIS: RF is using Su-34s as their primary tactical lever while relying on massive AD claims to mask vulnerabilities. Their focus remains on disrupting UAF logistics and mobilization.
FRIENDLY FORCES: UAF is maintaining a high tempo of deep strikes and psychological operations to counter the RF "retaliation" narrative. Air defense remains active but under pressure from saturation tactics.
PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS: The clearing of air alarms in Zaporizhzhia is likely the "eye of the storm." Expect a significant escalation in RF long-range strikes within the 0600Z-1200Z window.
