MYRNOHRAD DEFENSIVE REINFORCEMENT (MEDIUM): Contrary to previous RF claims of capture, Operational Command "East" reports UAF is expanding logistics corridors to support the ongoing defense of Myrnohrad (0923Z, РБК-Україна, MEDIUM).
KAB SURGE - KHARKIV/SUMY (HIGH): Significant increase in Russian tactical aviation activity. Multiple KAB launches confirmed targeting Kharkiv city and the Krasnopillya-Velyka Pysarivka axis in Sumy (0910Z, 0914Z, 0928Z, Air Force UA/Kharkiv ODA, HIGH).
DEEP STRIKE - KRASNODAR (HIGH): Overnight UAF drone strikes targeted an oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai, continuing the campaign against RF energy infrastructure (0925Z, Два майора, HIGH).
CHERNOBYL UAV VECTOR (HIGH): A Russian UAV is tracking through western Chernihiv Oblast toward the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone (Kyiv Oblast), indicating a specific threat to the northern power grid or sensor networks (0928Z, Air Force UA, HIGH).
KHORLY CASUALTY DISCREPANCY (LOW/UNCONFIRMED): Pro-Russian sources now claim 24 dead in a "targeted cafe strike" in Khorly, an escalation from earlier hotel fire reports. Casualties are being transferred to Crimea (0908Z, 0920Z, Mash/NgP Razvedka, LOW).
SWISS INCIDENT AMPLIFICATION (LOW): Russian state media and milbloggers are heavily amplifying an explosion at a Swiss ski resort (Crans-Montana), claiming 40+ casualties. This is likely being utilized as a "whataboutism" narrative or a hybrid IO distraction (0915Z, Alex Parker Returns, LOW).
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Sector (Sumy/Chernihiv/Kharkiv)
Aerial Attrition: Kharkiv city sustained hits with at least one confirmed civilian casualty (0935Z). The vector from northern Chernihiv toward the Chernobyl Zone suggests a deliberate attempt to penetrate Kyiv’s northern air defense umbrella via the exclusion zone’s low-density sensor areas.
Sumy Front: Tactical aviation is focusing on the Krasnopillya salient, likely attempting to disrupt UAF tactical reserves.
2. Eastern Sector (Donbas/Kupiansk)
Myrnohrad Axis: The situation remains contested. While previous reports suggested a "grim" outlook, the expansion of logistics corridors by OC "East" (0923Z) indicates UAF intent to hold the urban center and prevent a breakthrough toward the Dnipropetrovsk border.
Kupiansk Axis: RF MoD claims to have repelled two UAF "breakthrough" attempts (0921Z). While unconfirmed, this suggests UAF is maintaining local initiative despite the pressure elsewhere.
3. Southern Sector (Kherson/Zaporizhzhia)
Khorly Incident: The narrative has shifted to a "cafe strike." UAF-associated channels are highlighting the incident (0933Z), but the discrepancy between "4 injured" and "24 dead" suggests a significant RF effort to manufacture a "massacre" narrative for international consumption.
Tactical Recon: FPV drone units continue high-frequency strikes against RF vehicles (0927Z, Mykolaiv Vanyok).
4. Western Sector (Volyn)
UAV Incursion: A Russian UAV was detected over Holoby (0913Z), maintaining the threat to regional logistics and the energy link to Poland.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Aviation Adaptations: RF is synchronized KAB launches with UAV reconnaissance, specifically targeting the energy-VPK (Military-Industrial Complex) nexus (0922Z).
Information Operations (IO): The RF MFA (Zakharova) is directly linking Western aid to the alleged New Year's Eve civilian deaths (0911Z). This, combined with the Crans-Montana amplification, suggests a coordinated push to delegitimize Western support.
Claims of Success: RF MoD claims of downing a UAF Su-27 (0920Z) are currently UNCONFIRMED and lack visual evidence.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Logistics Maneuver: OC "East" is successfully counter-maneuvering in the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad sector to prevent operational encirclement.
Strategic Sabotage: The Krasnodar refinery strike demonstrates sustained long-range capability despite intensified RF air defenses in the rear.
Attrition: DShV (Airborne) released monthly stats indicating high Russian losses, supporting a strategy of "defensive attrition" ahead of expected winter offensives.
Information environment / disinformation
"Swiss Explosion" Narrative: Rapid spread of high casualty counts (40+) in Switzerland by pro-RU channels (0915Z) without Western confirmation. Analyst Note: Watch for RF claims of "Ukrainian involvement" or "European instability" as part of a New Year hybrid campaign.
Reflexive Control: Milbloggers (Kotenok) are dismissing claims of a drone attack on the RF President's residence (0916Z), possibly to prevent an appearance of vulnerability or to manage expectations for "retaliation."
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Continued KAB saturation of Kharkiv and Sumy. UAVs currently over Chernihiv and Volyn will likely attempt to strike energy substations or transition to reconnaissance of AD positions.
MDCOA: A "retaliation strike" utilizing the 27.24 SAR-scored ammunition surge, framed as a response to the "Khorly Cafe Massacre" and Krasnodar refinery strike, targeting Kyiv and Western Ukraine during the afternoon of Jan 1.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Myrnohrad LOC: Immediate thermal/SAR imagery required to confirm the physical Line of Contact in Myrnohrad city limits.
Su-27 Status: BDA or signal verification required to confirm/deny the RF MoD claim of a downed Ukrainian fighter.
Khorly Ground Truth: High-resolution imagery of the "cafe" site in Khorly to determine the weapon type and target profile (military vs. civilian).
