GEOLOCATED KAB STRIKE - RIZDVIANKA (HIGH): Russian 11th Air and Air Defense Forces confirmed using FAB/KAB guided munitions against UAF positions in Rizdvianka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Colonelcassad, 0435Z, HIGH).
OFFICIAL DPRK COMBATANT STATUS (HIGH): TASS/KCNA released images of Kim Jong Un congratulating North Korean troops currently serving in the Russian Federation, providing official confirmation of their operational status (TASS, 0452Z, HIGH).
HEAVY-LIFT TACTICAL UAV DEPLOYMENT (MEDIUM): Russian forces have begun deploying heavy-lift drones for "tactical postcard" (high-yield ordnance) delivery against UAF frontline positions (Colonelcassad, 0503Z, MEDIUM).
RF INTERNAL HOLIDAY STATUS (LOW): Russian state media highlighting January 2026 as an extended non-working period; may impact short-term logistical replenishment rates post-New Year blitz (0455Z, LOW).
Operational picture (by sector)
Zaporizhzhia Sector: The 0413Z alert has been geolocated to Rizdvianka. This suggests Russian tactical aviation is targeting the secondary defensive lines northeast of the Orikhiv-Hulyaipole axis. The use of the 11th Air and Air Defense Army indicates a regional shift in aviation assets to support this sector.
Eastern Front (Pokrovsk/Myrnohrad): No new tactical updates since 0435Z; the situation remains "critical" (Ref: Daily Report). The focus appears to be on aerial preparation using heavy-lift drones (0503Z) to soften remaining UAF strongpoints.
Russian Rear (DPRK Integration): The public acknowledgment by Kim Jong Un (0452Z) signals that North Korean units are likely past the "integration and training" phase and are now considered active combat or combat-support elements within the RF AOR.
Deep Strike Ops: No change to the status of the 168-UAV UAF wave (Ref: Previous Sitrep); BDA is still pending.
Enemy analysis (Threat assessment)
Tactical Adaptations: RF is increasingly utilizing heavy-lift drones (Baba Yaga analogs) for precise, high-payload strikes. This indicates a capability to bypass traditional EW envelopes that typically target smaller FPVs.
DPRK Involvement: The transition of DPRK personnel to "celebrated combatants" suggests they may be deployed in a concentrated sector (likely Kursk or the Northern Border) rather than distributed as individual replacements.
Aviation Intentions: Concentrated KAB strikes on Rizdvianka suggest an attempt to disrupt UAF lateral maneuvers between the Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk fronts.
Friendly forces (UAF)
Defensive Posture: UAF units in Zaporizhzhia are facing intensified aerial bombardment. Rizdvianka serves as a key transit point; its targeting suggests RF ISR has successfully mapped UAF reserve movement.
Readiness: AD assets remain on high alert for the "New Year's Blitz" (Ref: Daily Report). Mobile Fire Groups (MFGs) are the primary defense against the new heavy-lift UAV threat.
Information environment (Cognitive domain)
Propaganda Escalation: Pro-Russian channels are using "holiday" terminology ("tactical postcards," "festive flyover") to mask the lethality of new drone systems and maintain domestic morale.
Strategic Messaging: The TASS report on Kim Jong Un serves a dual purpose: signaling a "limitless" alliance to the West and bolstering the morale of North Korean personnel who are operating in a foreign environment during a major holiday.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): RF will continue high-tempo KAB strikes in the Zaporizhzhia sector (Rizdvianka-Hulyaipole) to fix UAF forces while consolidating gains in the Myrnohrad sector.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): Overt DPRK units launch a synchronized assault in a fresh sector (e.g., Sumy or Kharkiv) capitalized by the "holiday" lull and morale boost from their leadership's New Year message.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
DPRK Geolocation: Identify the specific location where Kim Jong Un’s message was distributed to RF-based North Korean troops to determine their current deployment sector.
Heavy-Lift UAV Specs: Collect SIGINT or wreckage of the "heavy-lift" drones mentioned at 0503Z to determine frequency ranges and payload capacity.
Rizdvianka BDA: Assess the impact of KAB strikes on the Rizdvianka logistics node; determine if the M-14 highway transit is compromised.
