RESTRIKE ON LUTSK (HIGH): New explosions reported in Lutsk at 0227Z. This follows the 0159Z impact, indicating a multi-wave exploitation of the target (RBK-Ukraine/Suspilne, 0227Z, HIGH).
UAV VECTOR SHIFT (HIGH): 3 OWA-UAVs previously tracking toward the Kovel logistics hub have diverted south toward Lutsk, likely to augment the ongoing strike (Nikolaevsky Vanek, 0213Z, HIGH).
TACTICAL AVIATION ENGAGEMENT – KHARKIV (HIGH): RF tactical aviation has launched Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs) against Kharkiv Oblast, marking an escalation from OWA-UAV "pathfinding" to heavy kinetic impact (Air Force ZSU, 0211Z, HIGH).
INTERIOR INGRESS – POLTAVA (HIGH): UAVs have transited Kharkiv Oblast and are now entering Poltava Oblast near Karlivka, expanding the strike envelope into the central interior (Air Force ZSU, 0226Z, HIGH).
Operational picture (by sector)
Western Sector (Volyn/Lutsk/Kovel):ACTIVE KINETIC ZONE. Lutsk is under sustained attack. The diversion of 3 UAVs from the Kovel vector to Lutsk suggests the enemy has identified a high-value vulnerability or successful breach in Lutsk and is concentrating mass to ensure target destruction. Kovel remains under threat from the remaining elements of the previous 10-UAV wave.
Northern/Eastern Sector (Kharkiv/Poltava):MULTI-DOMAIN ESCALATION. The situation in Kharkiv has transitioned from UAV overflights to active KAB strikes. This indicates RF tactical aircraft (likely Su-34/35) are operating near the border. Simultaneously, a UAV vector is pushing deeper into Poltava (Karlivka), likely targeting energy infrastructure or transit hubs.
Donetsk Sector (Siversk/Pokrovsk):STABLE (NO NEW DATA). No updates in the 0210Z-0230Z window. The situation remains "grim" per the previous daily report, particularly in the Myrnohrad area, but kinetic aerial activity is currently focused on the North and West.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Shift: The RF is employing a "Re-Strike" tactic in Lutsk. After the initial fire (0159Z), follow-on strikes (0227Z) suggest a deliberate attempt to prevent damage control/firefighting efforts or to destroy hardened structures that survived the first wave.
Course of Action (COA): The use of KABs in Kharkiv indicates the RF is willing to bring manned aviation closer to the border, possibly taking advantage of AD saturation caused by the UAV waves. The southern heading of UAVs into Poltava suggests a secondary axis of attack targeting the interior electrical grid.
Logistics & Sustainment: Concentration on Lutsk (Western Ukraine) confirms a strategic intent to disrupt the flow of Western material at the start of the New Year.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense (AD) Posture: UAF mobile fire groups and AD units are actively engaged in Volyn and Kharkiv. The reported "explosions" in Lutsk (0227Z) are currently assessed as impacts rather than interceptions, given the confirmed presence of a "large-scale fire" from the previous hour.
Civil Defense: Suspilne/RBK-Ukraine are providing real-time warnings, indicating that the civilian warning system is functional despite the holiday and ongoing kinetic pressure.
Information environment / disinformation
Saturation Mapping: RBK-Ukraine is utilizing map visualizations to emphasize the nationwide scale of the threat, countering any RF narratives of localized or "limited" strikes.
Messaging: RF-aligned sources have not yet claimed specific targets in Lutsk, likely waiting for BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) from the 0227Z wave.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): Continued UAV/KAB pressure on Kharkiv and Poltava. The Lutsk strikes will likely pause after the current wave to allow RF ISR (possibly Orlan-10 or Supercam) to assess damage.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): A combined cruise missile strike (Kalibr/Kh-101) timed for 0400Z-0500Z, utilizing the UAV-induced AD exhaustion to target Kyiv or Dnipro.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Lutsk Target ID: Urgent need to identify the specific facility hit in Lutsk (Fuel depot vs. Rail Logistics vs. Energy) to assess the impact on Western aid throughput.
Kharkiv KAB Launch Points: Identification of the RF airbases/launch boxes for the KABs to coordinate counter-battery or long-range drone strikes.
Myrnohrad Ground Truth: Status of the defensive line remains unconfirmed; lack of news may indicate a communication blackout or fluid combat in the city center.
Poltava Vector: Determine if the UAVs near Karlivka are heading for Poltava city or the Kremenchuk industrial area.
