KINETIC IMPACT ON ENERGY GRID (HIGH): RF successfully targeted energy infrastructure across four Ukrainian oblasts overnight/this morning. Ukrenergo confirms emergency power outages; RF MoD claims targets were tied to the Ukrainian Military-Industrial Complex (RBK-UA, 0959Z; TASS, 1003Z; HIGH).
CONTESTED VALDAI NARRATIVE (MEDIUM): RF MoD released footage of a "Chaklun-B 2.0" UAV wreckage allegedly downed near Valdai. Ukrainian sources have labeled the RF-provided drone flight-path maps as "fake," suggesting an RF effort to exaggerate the threat for domestic consumption (Alex Parker Returns, 0949Z; Tsaplienko, 1001Z; MEDIUM).
BALLISTIC THREAT REPRIEVE/AERIAL REDIRECTION (HIGH): A nationwide ballistic missile alert was lifted at 0942Z. However, tactical aviation remains active, with KAB launches confirmed against Zaporizhzhia and a new UAV threat originating from the Black Sea targeting Chornomorsk (Air Force UA, 0940Z-0945Z; HIGH).
KUPYANSK AXIS FRICTION (MEDIUM): RF MoD claims "Zapad" force elements repelled three UAF counter-attacks in the Kupyansk sector. This contradicts previous reports of UAF stabilization, suggesting a highly fluid and contested frontline (TASS, 0959Z; UNCONFIRMED).
POW STATUS MILESTONE (HIGH): The Coordinating Headquarters for the Treatment of POWs confirms that over 10,000 Russian servicemen are currently in Ukrainian custody (Coordination HQ, 0941Z; HIGH).
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern/Eastern Axis (Sumy, Kupyansk, Donbas)
Kupyansk: RF forces claim to have halted a UAF attempt to regain initiative, specifically citing three repelled attacks. Combat remains high-intensity.
Krasnoarmiyske (Pokrovsk) Direction: RF drone operators (VDV elements) report disrupting a UAF squad-level attempt to retake a trench position (Diary of a Paratrooper, 0945Z).
Shevchenko: Pro-Russian "Sparta" battalion elements claim the destruction of a UAF Ground Robotic Complex (NRTK) and an ATV via FPV strikes, indicating continued high-tech attrition in the sector (NM DNR, 0959Z).
Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia & Odesa)
Zaporizhzhia: Subjected to active KAB (guided bomb) strikes as of 0945Z. UAVs are currently loitering SE of the city on a NW course (Air Force UA, 0956Z).
Odesa/Chornomorsk: A new aerial threat has been detected with drones moving from the Black Sea toward Chornomorsk, likely targeting port infrastructure or grain storage (Air Force UA, 0940Z).
Rear Area & Strategic Strikes
Energy Infrastructure: Critical damage reported in four oblasts. This confirms the RF’s intent to use the "Valdai incident" as a pretext for a systematic winter energy offensive.
Internal Security: Ukrainian General Prosecutor’s Office is targeting corruption in the "Service for Restoration and Infrastructure Development" in Chernivtsi, investigating a 2.5m UAH embezzlement case (0100Z). This highlights ongoing efforts to ensure transparency in reconstruction funds amidst the war.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Adaptation: RF is increasingly utilizing FPV drones to target UAF robotic platforms (NRTK), suggesting an evolution in the "drone vs. drone" ground warfare domain.
Strategic Signal: The public exchange of New Year greetings between Xi Jinping and Putin (Colonelcassad, 1003Z) emphasizes a reinforced strategic partnership, likely signaling continued logistical/political support for RF operations in 2026.
Information Suppression: Reports of 12,000 mobile internet outages in Russia over the last six months (Sever.Realii, 1001Z) suggest intensified RF internal censorship and SIGINT masking to prevent visual confirmation of deep-strike impacts or domestic unrest.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Active Defense: UAF 93rd Separate Mechanized Brigade (Kholodnyi Yar) continues high-efficiency attrition of RF personnel, releasing visual confirmation of successful defensive engagements (Butusov Plus, 0948Z).
Counter-Strike Capability: While the Valdai strike remains clouded by RF propaganda, the deployment of "Chaklun-B" type UAVs (if confirmed) demonstrates a standardized long-range strike capability using domestic platforms.
Information environment / disinformation
Valdai False Flag/Exaggeration: The discrepancy between RF MoD "flight maps" and Ukrainian analysis suggests the RF may be inflating the scale of the drone wave (91 units claimed) to justify the severity of the strikes on the Ukrainian power grid.
Moral Framing: RF channels are using "human interest" stories (e.g., aid deliveries in the Krasnoarmiyske direction) to maintain domestic support for the "SVO" during the New Year holiday.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Continued tactical aviation pressure (KABs) on Zaporizhzhia and Sumy, paired with Shahed-type UAV strikes on Odesa/Chornomorsk to test southern air defenses.
MDCOA: A second wave of strategic missile strikes targeting the energy sectors of Western Ukraine (Lviv/Ivano-Frankivsk) to maximize the "winter freeze" effect following this morning's outages.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Chornomorsk UAV Intent: Determine if the Black Sea drones are ISR (reconnaissance) for a follow-up Kalibr cruise missile strike or a direct attack on port facilities.
Kupyansk Frontline Geometry: Clarify the status of the "three repelled attacks" claimed by RF to determine if UAF has transitioned to local counter-offensives.
Energy Recovery Timeline: Assess the repair capacity for the four affected oblasts to determine the duration of the current power deficit.
