STRATEGIC DEEP STRIKE SUCCESS (HIGH): Ukrainian Special Operations Center (SBS/SBU) successfully engaged 10+ infrastructure targets in occupied Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Crimea, plus 2 high-value targets deep within the RF. Bloomberg confirms December as the most damaging month for RF energy assets (Tsaplienko, 0851Z; Operativno ZSU, 0855Z; HIGH).
HULIAIPOLE TACTICAL ENGAGEMENT (MEDIUM): RF "Vostok" Group claims to have repelled a mechanized probe by the UAF 1st Assault Battalion ("Da Vinci Wolves") near Huliaipole. RF sources report destroying 1 tank (T-64) and 2 BBVs (Voin DV, 0900Z; MEDIUM).
WIDESPREAD AIR THREAT (HIGH): Simultaneous air alerts issued for Sumy (UAVs), tactical aviation in the SE, and missile threats for Mykolaiv, Kherson, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, and Poltava Oblasts. KAB launches confirmed for Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia (Air Force UA, 0842Z-0900Z; HIGH).
LOGISTICS TARGETING – ODESA (HIGH): Drone debris from overnight strikes impacted a Nova Poshta sorting terminal in Odesa, confirming RF intent to disrupt civilian logistics alongside energy grids (RBK-Ukraine, 0851Z; HIGH).
DISINFORMATION – "TERRITORIAL CONCESSIONS" (LOW): RF state-aligned channels are circulating claims (citing NYT) that the US transition team has forced Ukraine into territorial concessions. This is assessed as a coordinated psychological operation to destabilize morale ahead of the Jan 3 summit (Operatsia Z, 0903Z; UNCONFIRMED/DISINFORMATION).
INTERNAL SECURITY – COUNTER-ESPIONAGE (HIGH): Two individuals sentenced to life imprisonment for providing FSB with UAF troop coordinates, indicating robust internal security operations (Office of the Gen. Prosecutor, 0900Z; HIGH).
Operational picture (by sector)
Eastern Axis (Donbas & Pokrovsk)
Donetsk Sector: UAF "Azov" units reportedly established a presence/raised the flag in Rodynske, suggesting localized tactical gains or successful raiding operations (RBK-Ukraine, 0845Z).
Air Activity: Heavy use of KABs (guided bombs) by RF aviation against UAF positions in Donetsk Oblast (Air Force UA, 0848Z).
Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia & Odesa)
Huliaipole: A UAF probe near the Горького (Gorkogo) direction was reportedly neutralized by a multi-unit RF defense (60th Motorized Rifle Bde, 305th Arty Bde). Footage corroborates the loss of at least one UAF tank on the move (Voin DV, 0900Z).
Odesa: Significant damage to two energy facilities confirmed by DTEK; recovery will be prolonged (Voenkor Kotenok, 0900Z).
Zaporizhzhia: Regional authorities maintain a strict New Year's Eve curfew despite holiday expectations (Mash na Donbasse, 0851Z).
Northern Axis (Sumy & Chernihiv)
Sumy: Active UAV incursions detected moving toward Sumy city (Air Force UA, 0842Z). This follows the successful use of "STING" interceptors previously noted in the 24h report.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Aviation: High-frequency sorties of tactical aviation in the SE indicate RF is providing close air support (CAS) and standoff strikes to prevent UAF shaping operations before the New Year.
Information Warfare: Extensive use of "holiday masking" (WarGonzo, 0841Z; Colonelcassad, 0847Z). RF is flooding the information space with festive military content to distract from the high attrition rates (286 personnel lost in the Southern sector alone over 24h) and energy grid vulnerabilities (Sili Oborony Pivdnya, 0850Z).
Internal RF Repression: Rumors of potential internet restrictions in the RF during the holidays (Archangel Spetsnaz, 0841Z) suggest the Kremlin is wary of internal dissent or the spread of news regarding UAF deep strikes.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Deep Battle: The SBU/SBS "birds" have demonstrated a significant reach, hitting 12+ total targets across all occupied territories and the RF rear (Tsaplienko, 0851Z). This indicates a coordinated, multi-domain effort to degrade RF logistics before their anticipated "Sever" offensive.
Judicial/Governance: Completion of the "Unity" Minister investigation (Operativno ZSU, 0848Z) and life sentences for spies (0900Z) show that the state's legal and security apparatuses are prioritizing internal stability.
Information environment / disinformation
The "Trump Concession" Narrative: The claim that Ukraine has already agreed to territorial concessions is a high-priority disinformation threat. It aims to create a "fait accompli" atmosphere before official diplomatic meetings on Jan 3.
CSTO Echo Chamber: Lukashenko’s continued focus on the Valdai incident as "terrorism" (Alex Parker, 0836Z) confirms this remains the primary pretext for the expected retaliatory strike.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): A massive integrated aerial assault (Missiles/UAVs) across multiple oblasts (Kyiv, Odesa, Poltava, Cherkasy) starting within the 1800Z-0000Z window. Focus will be on energy recovery assets and decision-making centers.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF tactical aviation leverages the current high-activity alerts to mask a localized breakthrough attempt in the Zaporizhzhia/Huliaipole sector, utilizing the momentum from the repelled UAF probe.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Huliaipole BDA: Verify UAF personnel losses from the 1st Assault Battalion to determine if the unit remains combat-effective in that sector.
Deep Strike Targets: Identify the specific "2 objects in the depth of the RF" hit by the SBU to assess the impact on RF strategic reserves.
Aviation Tracking: Monitor for the deployment of Tu-95MS or Tu-160 bombers from Engels-2/Olenya, which would signal the transition from tactical air activity to a strategic missile volley.
