CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE – ODESA ENERGY STRIKES (HIGH): Significant damage confirmed at two DTEK energy facilities in Odesa Oblast following overnight UAV/missile strikes (RBK-Ukraine, 0742Z; Operatyvnyi ZSU, 0745Z; HIGH).
RF COMMAND & CONTROL – GERASIMOV INSPECTION (HIGH): Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov conducted a high-level inspection of the "Sever" (North) Group of Forces, signaling final readiness for potential cross-border operations (MoD Russia, 0757Z; HIGH).
TACTICAL SUCCESS – RODYNSKE (HIGH): The 1st Corps of the NGU "Azov" Brigade confirms the settlement of Rodynske remains under firm Ukrainian control, counteracting local RF misinformation (Operatyvnyi ZSU, 0756Z; HIGH).
DEEP STRIKE / SABOTAGE – RYBINSK, RUSSIA (MEDIUM): Reports and footage indicate a significant fire at an industrial/logistics site in Rybinsk, Yaroslavl Oblast (approx. 700km from UKR border) (Tsaplienko, 0752Z; MEDIUM).
GRID INSTABILITY – RIVNE (MEDIUM): Sudden, widespread power outages reported in Rivne; cause currently undetermined but follows nationwide energy pressure (RBK-Ukraine, 0802Z; MEDIUM).
AERIAL THREAT – CHERNIHIV (HIGH): New UAV waves detected entering Ukrainian airspace from the northeast, moving toward Pryluky (Air Force UA, 0744Z; HIGH).
MARITIME – TANKER INTERDICTION HALTED (HIGH): US operations against the "shadow fleet" tanker Bella 1 were suspended after the vessel crudely applied Russian markings to claim sovereign immunity (Operatyvnyi ZSU/WSJ, 0804Z; HIGH).
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Axis (Chernihiv & Sumy)
Threat Vector: RF UAVs are utilizing the northeastern corridor (Chernihiv region) toward Pryluky, likely targeting regional logistics hubs or energy infrastructure.
RF Posture: Gerasimov’s presence at "Sever" Group HQ (commanded by Col. Gen. Nikiforov) is a definitive indicator that shaping operations in the North are transitioning to the execution phase.
Eastern Axis (Donbas & Pokrovsk)
Rodynske: UAF (Azov) has successfully stabilized the perimeter.
Donetsk Sector: RF tactical aviation has increased the weight of fire with Guided Aerial Bomb (KAB) launches (Air Force UA, 0802Z).
Raiske: RF sources claim the destruction of a UAF AS-90 self-propelled howitzer by the 381st Artillery Regiment; this remains unconfirmed but suggests high-density counter-battery fire in the sector (NM DNR, 0801Z; LOW).
Southern Axis (Odesa & Mykolaiv)
Energy Sector: The strike on two DTEK facilities in Odesa has resulted in "significant damage." This confirms the intent of the 0730Z UAV waves was a deliberate effort to collapse the regional grid before the New Year.
Active Threats: New UAV threats are approaching Mayaky (Odesa) from the South (Black Sea), indicating a multi-axis saturation tactic (Air Force UA, 0752Z).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Strategic Intent: The combination of Gerasimov’s inspection and the systematic targeting of the Odesa/Rivne energy nodes suggests a coordinated effort to paralyze Ukrainian domestic stability while prepping for a ground offensive in the North.
Hybrid Maritime Tactic: The Bella 1 incident demonstrates that RF is successfully using "low-cost" deception (painting flags) to deter Western maritime enforcement, ensuring the continued flow of "shadow fleet" oil revenue.
Psychological Ops: RF state media is utilizing POW interviews (e.g., Valeriy Sokolenko in Kupyansk) to push a narrative of UAF "suicide missions" involving flag-planting for PR (Colonelcassad, 0739Z; UNCONFIRMED).
Friendly activity (UAF)
Consolidation: The 46th Air Mobile Brigade and Azov are maintaining defensive integrity in high-pressure sectors (Rodynske/Donbas) despite increased KAB usage.
Internal Security: The Office of the General Prosecutor successfully neutralized 27 fraudulent call centers in Kyiv and Odesa, likely targeting RF-linked financial destabilization networks (PGO, 0801Z).
Information environment / disinformation
Festive Camouflage: Russian state media (TASS) is heavily promoting "New Year" PR (Ded Moroz trackers, Zakharova greetings) to mask the transition to offensive military postures and provide a contrast to Ukrainian infrastructure distress.
Human Rights: The release of Gregory Winter (sentenced for "fakes") may be a localized effort to project domestic "leniency" ahead of the holiday.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Continued UAV/KAB saturation in the Donetsk and Odesa sectors. Expect a localized "darkness" period in Odesa as DTEK assesses damage.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): The "Sever" Group, following Gerasimov’s exit, initiates a multi-brigade cross-border assault toward Sumy or Kharkiv within the next 12 hours, synchronized with a midnight (0000Z) mass missile volley.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Rivne Outage: Determine if the Rivne power failure was caused by cyber-intervention, kinetic sabotage, or grid-cascading from the Odesa strikes.
Rybinsk BDA: Identify the specific facility affected in Rybinsk (Yaroslavl) to assess if this impacts RF engine production or turbine repair for the energy war.
Sever Group FLOT: Monitor for any movement of mechanized assets toward the "grey zone" in the Kharkiv/Sumy border regions.
