FRIENDLY REINFORCEMENT - DOBROPILLYA (HIGH): The 12th Special Purpose Brigade "Azov" has officially deployed to defensive positions in the Dobropillya direction (Butusov Plus, 0648Z; HIGH).
CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE BDA - ODESA (HIGH): NASA FIRMS fire monitoring and ground-level footage confirm a significant strike on the 110/6 kV "Leninskaya" electrical substation in Odesa following overnight UAV waves (Colonelcassad, 0645Z; HIGH).
CGS INSPECTION CONFIRMED (HIGH): Further reports confirm RF Chief of General Staff Gerasimov inspected the "Sever" (North) Group of Forces, signaling potential imminent cross-border operations near Kharkiv/Sumy (Colonelcassad, 0635Z; Basurin, 0647Z; HIGH).
NORTH-EAST AIR THREAT (MEDIUM): UAF Air Force reports increased RF tactical aviation activity on the north-eastern vector (Air Force UA, 0635Z; MEDIUM).
HULIAIPOLE FRONT STABILITY (MEDIUM): South Defense Forces clarify that Russian forces do not have full control of Huliaipole, contradicting earlier pro-Russian speculative gains (Operativniy ZSU, 0704Z; MEDIUM).
RU FINANCIAL ANOMALY (LOW): Reports indicate Russian banks are blocking large cash withdrawals via ATMs in the Moscow region (Novosti Moscow, 0655Z; UNCONFIRMED/LOW).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
The operational tempo is accelerating as both sides reposition for the New Year period. The most critical shifts are in the Dobropillya sector (Donetsk) and the Northern Border.
Battlefield Geometry: The frontline in the Dobropilsky Salient is being reinforced by elite Ukrainian elements (Azov) to counter the previously identified threat from the RF 33rd GMRR. In the South, the frontline at Huliaipole remains contested despite RF pressure.
Environmental Factors: Heavy snowfall is reported in the Moscow/Podmoskovye region, which may degrade RF logistical throughput or UAV launch conditions in the northern sector in the next 6-12 hours (TASS, 0703Z).
Infrastructure Status: Odesa is experiencing localized blackouts following the confirmed hit on the "Leninskaya" substation.
Capabilities & Intentions: Gerasimov’s personal presence at the "Sever" Group command post is a strong indicator of a planned operational-level action. This group covers the Kharkiv and Sumy border axes. The concurrent rise in tactical aviation activity suggests "shaping" strikes are underway.
Tactical Adaptation: In the Kupyansk sector, RF forces are employing TOS-1A "Solntsepyok" thermobaric systems against UAF deployment points, indicating an effort to clear high-density defensive positions before mechanized pushes (MoD Russia, 0659Z).
Logistics/Rear: If reports of bank withdrawal limits in Moscow are accurate, it may indicate internal economic bracing for further escalation or anticipation of domestic instability following recent strikes on RF territory (e.g., Tuapse/Valdai).
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking - IPB Step 3)
Force Posture: The deployment of the 12th "Azov" Brigade to the Dobropillya direction is a significant tactical commitment. This unit is historically used for high-intensity defense and counter-assault, suggesting UAF Command views the 33rd GMRR breakthrough threat as credible and imminent.
Recent Successes: UAF South Defense Forces have successfully maintained a presence in Huliaipole, denying the RF a symbolic or tactical victory in that sector before the year's end.
Internal Security: Enhanced military/police patrols are being deployed across Ukraine for the holiday period to mitigate risks from sabotage groups or civil disruption during expected air raids (RBK-UA, 0657Z).
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain - IPB Step 4)
RF Narrative Control: Pro-Russian channels are heavily amplifying a "Financial Times" claim that the alleged Valdai strike has put Kyiv under international diplomatic pressure (Operation Z, 0655Z). This is likely intended to demoralize the UA domestic audience and frame UA leadership as "reckless" to Western partners.
UA Strategic Communication: Official channels are maintaining a high volume of "National Minute of Silence" messaging (0700Z) to reinforce national unity and resilience as the 2026 transition approaches.
Disinformation Alert: Pro-Russian "war correspondents" are circulating video of Odesa blackouts to maximize the psychological impact of the substation strike.
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF tactical aviation and "Sever" Group units will launch localized cross-border raids in the Sumy/Kharkiv sectors within the next 12 hours to pin UAF reserves away from the Dobropillya/Zaporizhzhia axes.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF utilizes the "Sever" Group for a multi-brigade incursion toward Kharkiv city, timed with a massive missile volley targeting Odesa's remaining energy nodes to trigger a regional humanitarian crisis during sub-zero temperatures.
Timeline:1600Z – 2100Z (31 DEC) remains the critical window for the commencement of a "New Year" offensive operation.
6. OUTLOOK (Next 6-12h)
Dobropillya: Expect high-intensity skirmishes as "Azov" elements establish their fire zones.
Odesa: Energy repairs will be hampered by the threat of follow-up "double-tap" UAV strikes.
Northern Border: High probability of increased shelling and DRG (Sabotage and Reconnaissance Group) activity.
7. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
Dobropillya FEBA: Precise coordinates of the 12th "Azov" Brigade's seam with adjacent units to assess vulnerability to RF flanking maneuvers.
RU Banking Data: Corroboration of "cash blocking" in Russia; determine if this is localized to Moscow or a broader fiscal contingency.
Sever Group Assets: Identify if Gerasimov’s visit coincided with the movement of Iskander-M launchers into the "Sever" Group's Area of Operations.
