RENEWED UAV THREAT TO ODESA (HIGH): Multiple groups of BpLAs (drones) detected entering Odesa Oblast from the Black Sea, targeting Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi and Tatarbunary (Air Force of the UAF, 0511Z/0530Z, HIGH).
CASUALTIES REPORTED IN ODESA & ZAPORIZHZHIA (HIGH): Overnight strikes on Odesa injured five (including three children); attacks in Zaporizhzhia district resulted in one KIA and three WIA (RBC-Ukraine, 0510Z; Zaporizhzhia OVA, 0510Z, HIGH).
CRITICAL DATA CORRECTION BY GS AFU (MEDIUM): The General Staff has adjusted cumulative enemy loss figures for artillery, MLRS, AD systems, and UAVs due to "refined intelligence," suggesting a massive reconciliation of battlefield data from recent high-intensity engagements (GS AFU, 0508Z, MEDIUM).
UTILITY RESTORATION IN KYIV REGION (HIGH): Power and heating have been fully restored in the Obukhiv and Vyshhorod districts following recent strikes (Operativniy ZSU, 0518Z; RBC-Ukraine, 0524Z, HIGH).
ACTIVE ATTRITION IN VREMIVKA SECTOR (MEDIUM): RF 29th Army drone units are confirmed active, targeting UAF personnel on the Vremivka axis (Voin DV, 0530Z, MEDIUM).
HULIAIPOLE STATUS REMAINS UNCONFIRMED (LOW): No official UAF or independent confirmation has emerged regarding the RF claim of capturing Huliaipole; the sector remains an intelligence priority.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
The tactical situation is characterized by a continued Russian emphasis on aerial terror and localized tactical pressure in the south, while the UAF focuses on rear-area stabilization.
Battlefield Geometry: The "Dobropilsky Salient" and Huliaipole remain the most critical sectors for potential RF breakthroughs. The current UAV vectors suggest an attempt to fix Odesa’s air defenses while ground operations continue in the Zaporizhzhia/Donetsk border regions.
Weather/Environment: Moscow reporting -9°C and icing (TASS, 0531Z). Similar freezing conditions on the Ukrainian front will dictate mechanized movement and increase the thermal signature of personnel/equipment, as evidenced by RF drone footage (Voin DV, 0530Z).
Logistics/Infrastructure: Successful restoration of power in Kyiv Oblast (0524Z) indicates high UAF repair capacity, but the Odesa energy/port hub is under renewed threat.
Capabilities & Intentions: RF is maintaining a high volume of UAV launches despite significant losses (550+ claimed destroyed in 24h). The adjustment of GS AFU loss data (0508Z) may indicate that previous RF drone "swarms" were even larger than initially reported or involved more complex decoys.
Tactical Changes: In the Vremivka sector, the RF 29th Army is utilizing intensified FPV/reconnaissance drone loops to compensate for static ground lines (Voin DV, 0530Z).
VKS Activity: Patriotic messaging from Fighterbomber (0519Z) featuring Su-34/35 imagery suggests high readiness for tactical aviation sorties, likely supporting the Huliaipole/Vremivka axes.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking - IPB Step 3)
Force Posture: UAF remains in a flexible defense. The "controlled" situation in Kryvyi Rih (Vilkul, 0534Z) suggests that despite evacuations in neighboring districts, the main urban defensive hubs remain stable.
Attrition Management: The GS AFU reported 1,000 RF personnel and 33 artillery systems destroyed in the last 24h (RBC-Ukraine, 0513Z), maintaining a high attritional ratio necessary to blunt the projected RF pre-summit offensive.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain - IPB Step 4)
RF Narrative: Russian state media is pivoting heavily to "holiday normalcy," highlighting free New Year’s transportation and festive decorations (TASS, 0519Z; News Moscow, 0515Z/0526Z) to distract from the judicial concealment of military casualties and the mobilization of reservists.
Diplomatic Maneuvering: Polyansky’s (OSCE) interviews (TASS, 0506Z) continue the effort to project Russian diplomatic "momentum" ahead of the Jan 3 summit.
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will continue the current UAV wave against Odesa to pressure civilian morale and port infrastructure. A localized mechanized push in the Vremivka/Huliaipole sector is expected within the next 6 hours to capitalize on thermal advantages during the freezing morning hours.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A coordinated "Oreshnik" or multi-vector ballistic strike on Kyiv or Dnipro, synchronized with the current UAV saturation, intended to cause a C2 failure before the Jan 3 diplomatic meetings.
Timeline: High-risk window for Odesa impacts: 0545Z – 0700Z. High-risk window for southern ground assault: 0600Z – 0900Z.
6. OUTLOOK (Next 6-12h)
Odesa/Black Sea:CRITICAL. Ongoing UAV threat. High probability of kinetic impact on port or energy infrastructure.
Vremivka/Huliaipole:HIGH WATCH. Expected increase in RF mechanized activity.
Dnipropetrovsk/Kryvyi Rih:STABLE/MONITOR. Situation currently controlled, but risk of long-range strike spillover remains high.
7. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
Huliaipole Ground Truth: Still no visual confirmation of RF presence in central Huliaipole. BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) of the sector is required.
33rd GMRR Movement: Confirm if the 33rd GMRR has transitioned from assembly areas in the Dobropilsky Salient to active assault positions.
Refined Loss Data: Analyze the specific categories of the GS AFU "adjustment" (0508Z) to determine which RF capabilities (e.g., electronic warfare or specific AD systems) were most heavily underestimated.
