NEW ODESA THREAT (HIGH): Russian UAVs launched from the Black Sea are currently tracking toward Odesa and Chornomorsk. (UA Air Force, 0404Z, HIGH).
DNIPRO KINETIC ENGAGEMENT (HIGH): At least one enemy UAV is confirmed operating within the immediate vicinity of Dnipro city. (UA Air Force, 0337Z, HIGH).
ZAPORIZHZHIA THREAT ABATEMENT (MEDIUM): Air raid alerts have been cleared for the Zaporizhzhia sector, suggesting the previously tracked "southern vector" has bypassed the city or been neutralized. (Zaporizhzhia OVA, 0337Z, MEDIUM).
RF REAR ALERT CANCELLATION (MEDIUM): "Drone danger" has been lifted in Russian border regions (likely Bryansk/Bogomaz AO), mirroring the lifting of alerts in Lipetsk. (AV Bogomaz, 0354Z, MEDIUM).
SANCTIONS NARRATIVE SHIFT (LOW): Reports of the US lifting personal sanctions on select Russian individuals are circulating; assessed as a potential "wedging" operation to suggest weakening Western resolve. (RBK-UA, 0355Z, LOW).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
The aerial threat has expanded from a localized strike on the Dnipro industrial hub to a multi-vector assault targeting Ukraine’s primary maritime export nodes.
Battlefield Geometry: The opening of a maritime vector from the Black Sea (0404Z) suggests a synchronized effort to overwhelm Southern and Central Air Defense (AD) districts simultaneously.
Key Terrain: The Odesa/Chornomorsk port complex is now the primary objective in the southern sector. Dnipro remains a primary objective in the central sector.
Weather: Over-water transit for UAVs from the Black Sea favors low-altitude ingress to avoid radar detection.
Capabilities & Intentions: The RF is executing a "split-attention" tactic. By maintaining a single UAV threat over Dnipro (0337Z) while launching a fresh wave from the sea (0404Z), they force UAF to commit AD resources across widely separated geographic zones.
Tactical Changes: There is a notable synchronization between kinetic actions and the RU "mil-blogger" information cycle. The simultaneous "wake-up" posts from Dva Mayora (0357Z) and VDV Diary (0401Z) typically precede the release of coordinated morning battlefield summaries or the announcement of new offensive results.
Logistics: The launch from the Black Sea suggests the use of sea-based platforms or launch sites in southern Crimea (Cape Chauda), bypassing the land-based corridors currently monitored in the Zaporizhzhia sector.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking - IPB Step 3)
Air Defense Posture: UAF AD units in the Odesa/Chornomorsk region are on high alert. Mobile Fire Groups (MFGs) are likely repositioning to coastal interception points.
Operational Readiness: The successful clearance of the Zaporizhzhia alert (0337Z) indicates efficient tracking and localized neutralization, but the persistence of the threat in Dnipro suggests a high-survivability UAV model or complex flight path.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain - IPB Step 4)
Strategic Anxiety: Statements by German opposition leader Merz regarding 2026 as a "decisive year" (0347Z) are being amplified by RU state media (TASS) to project a sense of impending European exhaustion.
Sanctions Perception: The report of US lifting personal sanctions (0355Z) is likely being used to demoralize the Ukrainian domestic audience by suggesting a "backdoor" normalization of RU-US relations ahead of the Jan 3 summit.
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will conduct a coordinated UAV strike on port infrastructure in Odesa/Chornomorsk within the next 30-60 minutes. The UAV in Dnipro is likely a "fixer" intended to keep local AD active while larger strikes land elsewhere.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): The maritime UAVs are a precursor to a high-speed Kalibr cruise missile strike from Black Sea Fleet submarines, using the UAVs to identify and saturate AD engagement windows.
Timeline: Kinetic impact in Odesa/Chornomorsk expected between 0430Z and 0500Z.
6. OUTLOOK (Next 6-12h)
Odesa/Coastal:CRITICAL THREAT. Active engagement imminent.
Dnipro:HIGH THREAT. Continued localized UAV activity.
Information: Expect a flood of "morning summaries" from RU sources between 0500Z-0700Z, likely containing claims of successful strikes on energy or port logistics.
7. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
Maritime Launch Platform: Identify if the Odesa-bound UAVs were launched from land (Crimea) or a sea-based platform.
Dnipro UAV Type: Determine if the persistent UAV over Dnipro is a reconnaissance variant (Orlan-10/Supercam) or a loitering munition (Shahed).
Sanctions Context: Verify the specific "individual" mentioned in the RBK-UA report to determine if this is a standard legal delisting or a policy shift.
