KRYVYI RIH UAV THREAT (HIGH): Russian UAVs detected approaching Kryvyi Rih from the east, expanding the threat vector beyond the Zaporizhzhia sector. (Air Force UA, 0236Z, HIGH).
POLTAVA PENETRATION (HIGH): UAVs detected in northern Poltava Oblast, passing Hadiach and moving in a southwesterly direction. (Air Force UA, 0255Z, HIGH).
ZNPP INFRASTRUCTURE REPAIR (HIGH): A key external power line to the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) has been restored following a "window of silence" facilitated by the IAEA. (РБК-Україна, 0256Z, HIGH).
RU-PRC STRATEGIC EXTENSION (MEDIUM): Xi Jinping signaled a long-term commitment to the partnership with Putin, explicitly referencing joint achievements for the year 2026. (TASS, 0257Z, MEDIUM).
DOMESTIC RU CALENDAR (LOW): Russia has officially entered the 2026 New Year cycle in its easternmost territories (Uelen), likely initiating the planned holiday propaganda cycle. (TASS, 0239Z, LOW).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
The operational environment is currently dominated by a distributed, multi-vector Russian UAV offensive targeting Central and Southern Ukraine. While the previous focus was on the Zaporizhzhia axis, new incursions into Poltava and toward Kryvyi Rih indicate an attempt to saturate Air Defense (AD) across multiple oblasts simultaneously.
Battlefield Geometry: The focus has shifted from maritime/rear-area strikes (Tuapse) to deep-penetration aerial sorties targeting industrial and energy nodes in the Ukrainian interior.
Critical Infrastructure: The restoration of the ZNPP power line (0256Z) provides a temporary stabilize-and-secure window for nuclear safety, though the plant remains within the kinetic engagement zone of the Zaporizhzhia sector.
Aerial Operations: The RF is utilizing a "dispersed ingress" tactic. UAVs over Poltava moving SW (0255Z) are likely positioned to strike energy infrastructure or logistical junctions in central Ukraine, potentially bypassing the more concentrated AD screens around Kyiv and Kharkiv.
Intentions: The simultaneous pressure on Kryvyi Rih (from the east) and Poltava suggests the RF is mapping AD gaps or attempting to draw interceptor assets away from the Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia frontline, where mass evacuations were recently ordered (Daily Report, 12-30).
Strategic Signaling: Xi Jinping’s reference to "2026" (0257Z) serves as a potent diplomatic shield for the Kremlin, messaging to the West—ahead of the Jan 3 summit—that the RF-PRC bloc is prepared for a multi-year war of attrition.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking - IPB Step 3)
Air Defense Posture: UAF Air Force is actively tracking and engaging multiple "Geran-type" targets. Deployment of "STING" interceptors (referenced in daily report) is likely being prioritized for these new central/southern vectors.
Technical Success: Successful coordination with the IAEA to restore ZNPP power demonstrates UAF's continued commitment to international nuclear safety protocols, even under active bombardment.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain - IPB Step 4)
Diplomatic Echoes: The PRC's "2026 achievements" rhetoric is likely intended to dampen the impact of the upcoming US-Ukraine summit by projecting an image of an unbreakable, long-term alternative security architecture.
Internal RF Narrative: The TASS focus on New Year celebrations in Uelen (0239Z) is a standard domestic "normalization" tactic, contrasting festive normalcy against the backdrop of the Tuapse refinery fire and ongoing mobilization.
Belief Support: Dempster-Shafer analysis shows a significant belief score (0.566) supporting the current status quo, but with a notable sub-belief (0.088) that China is actively seeking new "achievements" with Russia, reinforcing the assessment of a strengthened RU-PRC diplomatic front.
MLCOA (Most Likely Course of Action): RF will maintain UAV pressure through the remainder of the night (0300-0600Z), targeting Kryvyi Rih's industrial base and Poltava's energy distribution hubs to degrade the regional power grid before sunrise.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous Course of Action): The UAVs currently over Poltava (0255Z) act as a screen for a high-velocity missile strike (Kalibr or Iskander) targeting the Dnipro river crossings or command centers in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, exploiting the current AD focus on slow-moving drones.
6. OUTLOOK (Next 6-12h)
Central/Southern Ukraine:HIGH ALERT. Ongoing UAV engagements over Kryvyi Rih and Poltava.
Energy Sector: Potential for localized outages if UAVs in the Poltava/Hadiach vector reach primary substations.
Diplomatic: Expect further RU-PRC joint statements as the Jan 3 summit approaches.
7. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
Poltava Vector: Determine if the UAVs moving SW from Hadiach are targeting the Kremenchuk refinery or transitioning toward the Cherkasy/Kyiv oblast borders.
Kryvyi Rih Ingress: Confirm the number of units and whether they are accompanied by reconnaissance drones (Orlan-10/Supercam) indicating a two-stage strike.
ZNPP Stability: Monitor the newly restored power line for any immediate RF interference or "accidental" shelling to test the durability of the "window of silence."
