COORDINATED UAV ATTACK ON ODESA (HIGH): Approximately 10 Shahed-type UAVs have maneuvered from Mykolaiv Oblast and are currently inbound to Odesa and Chornomorsk. Kinetic activity is imminent (2159Z, Nikolaevsky Vanek, HIGH).
UAF DEEP STRIKE ON TUAPSE (MEDIUM): Reports indicate a successful penetration ("probyttia") of Russian airspace and a strike on infrastructure in Tuapse, Krasnodar Krai. This follows reports of "significant" drone activity along the Russian Black Sea coast (2150Z, Operativno ZSU; 2141Z, NgP RaZVedka, MEDIUM).
AERIAL BOMBARDMENT OF ZAPORIZHZHIA (HIGH): Russian tactical aviation has conducted launches of Guided Aerial Bombs (KAB) targeting Zaporizhzhia Oblast, likely supporting the ongoing pressure on the Stepnohirsk/Dobropilsky sectors (2149Z, Air Force of the AFU, HIGH).
RF ECONOMIC SIGNALING (MEDIUM): The Russian Central Bank (CB) announced plans for a gradual rate reduction in 2026, targeting 4-5% inflation. This is likely an attempt to project long-term stability amidst mobilization and rear-area strikes (2203Z, TASS, MEDIUM).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational focus has expanded from the northern Kyiv corridor to a high-intensity aerial exchange along the Black Sea basin.
Battlefield Geometry: The conflict has entered a "tit-for-tat" deep-strike phase. While the RF targets Ukrainian port infrastructure in Odesa/Chornomorsk, UAF is successfully penetrating Russian AD in the Krasnodar Krai region (Tuapse).
Frontline Dynamics: In Zaporizhzhia, the use of KABs suggests the RF is maintaining its tempo of tactical bombardment to degrade UAF defensive positions ahead of anticipated ground maneuvers by the 33rd GMRR.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
Capabilities & Courses of Action:
Aerial Attrition (Odesa): The movement of "mopeds" (Shaheds) toward Chornomorsk suggests a deliberate attempt to interdict maritime logistics or grain infrastructure, coinciding with the "Shadow Fleet" developments noted in the 1500Z report.
Tactical Aviation: The persistent use of KABs in Zaporizhzhia indicates that RF C2 remains focused on breaking the stalemate in the south.
Command & Control (C2): Domestic messaging remains focused on New Year greetings (Khabarovsk) and economic stability (Central Bank) to decouple the domestic psychological state from the reality of deep-strikes in Tuapse and Valdai.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue force tracking)
UAF Posture: Air defense units in the Odesa region are at peak readiness. UAF Long-Range UAV units are maintaining an offensive posture, demonstrating the ability to strike high-value Russian energy/logistics hubs (Tuapse) despite increased Russian alert levels.
Sustainment: Continued civil-society engagement (donations/raffles) indicates that the "volunteer logistics" chain remains a resilient component of UAF sustainment for the 2026 campaign (2159Z, Operativno ZSU).
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive domain)
Counter-Narrative: The RF information space is attempting to normalize the situation through holiday greetings and long-term economic forecasting (TASS), likely to mitigate the psychological impact of the Valdai and Tuapse strikes.
Morale: The reporting of a "breakthrough" in Tuapse serves as a significant morale booster for the Ukrainian domestic audience, countering the narrative of Russian escalation.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future operations)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will conduct a multi-hour loitering munition attack on Odesa and Chornomorsk port facilities (2200Z–0200Z). Expect kinetic interceptions and potential localized power outages.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF leverages the current KAB sorties in Zaporizhzhia to mask a low-altitude cruise missile strike (Kalibr) from the Black Sea fleet, timed to coincide with the Shahed arrivals in Odesa to overwhelm local AD.
Timeline Estimates:
2215Z - 2330Z: Peak kinetic engagement in the Odesa/Chornomorsk defense sector.
0000Z - 0600Z: Potential Russian BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) of Tuapse followed by a "retaliatory" missile volley against Southern Ukraine.
Intelligence Gaps & Collection Requirements
Tuapse BDA: Clarify the specific target of the strike in Tuapse (Oil refinery vs. port infrastructure) to assess the impact on Russian Black Sea logistics.
KAB Impact in Zaporizhzhia: Determine if the 2149Z KAB launches were targeted at UAF tactical reserves or civilian infrastructure in Zaporizhzhia city.
AD Interception Rates: Monitor the effectiveness of Odesa's AD against the 10+ incoming Shaheds to determine if RF has identified new approach vectors.
