POKROVSK ARMORED MANEUVER (MEDIUM): Tank units of the RF "Center" Group are confirmed engaging in the Pokrovsk direction despite deteriorating weather (1907Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM).
KAB STRIKES ON NORTHERN AXIS (HIGH): RF aviation launched guided aerial bombs (KAB) against targets in Kharkiv and Sumy oblasts (1912Z, 1926Z, UA Air Force, HIGH).
LIPETSK UAV THREAT (HIGH): Regional authorities in Lipetsk have issued a region-wide UAV attack alert, indicating a sustained Ukrainian aerial campaign against RF rear infrastructure (1911Z, Igor Artamonov, HIGH).
UNCONFIRMED HVT LIQUIDATION (LOW): Pro-Russian sources claim Denis Kapustin (head of RDK) was killed on Dec 27 in Zaporizhzhia; no corroboration from Ukrainian or independent sources (1917Z, Colonelcassad, UNCONFIRMED).
WAR CRIMES ALLEGATIONS (MEDIUM): Visual evidence emerged of an alleged confession by an RF soldier regarding the extrajudicial killing of civilians (one woman, two children); currently undergoing forensic/OSINT validation (1931Z, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, MEDIUM).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational tempo is increasingly dictated by environmental factors and standoff munitions. While ground maneuver continues in the Donbas, the introduction of "Rasputitsa-like" conditions (mud and fog) is beginning to constrain heavy armor operations.
Battlefield Geometry: The Pokrovsk sector remains the primary focus of RF offensive pressure. The use of tanks in foggy/muddy conditions suggests a high-risk effort to maintain momentum before the ground fully softens or freezes unevenly.
Weather/Environmental: Fog and mud (reported at 1907Z) are significantly degrading visibility for both FPV drone pilots and optical ISR. This likely explains the RF’s increased reliance on KABs (1912Z) which utilize GPS/INS guidance rather than purely visual targeting.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
Capabilities & Courses of Action:
Maneuver: RF is pushing tank elements into the Pokrovsk direction to exploit perceived gaps in the defensive line near the Dnipropetrovsk border. However, the reported "muddy conditions" will likely lead to high mechanical failure rates and localized bottlenecks.
Aviation: The simultaneous KAB launches against Kharkiv and Sumy indicate a multi-axis effort to suppress Ukrainian tactical reserves and disrupt logistics supporting the northern border regions.
Strategic Messaging: Minister of Defense Belousov’s New Year address (1918Z) emphasizes the "combat readiness" of the RF army, likely intended to bolster domestic morale ahead of the anticipated mobilization shifts and winter offensive.
Hybrid Ops: Pro-RU channels are leveraging Western media (Fox Business) to amplify narratives critical of Ukrainian military aid, aiming to influence the US political environment ahead of the Jan 3 summit (1905Z).
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (UAF)
Air Defense: UA Air Force remains highly active in providing early warning for KAB launches. The persistence of UAV threats in Lipetsk (1911Z) confirms that UAF long-range strike capabilities remain operational despite RF pressure on launch sites.
Justice & Discipline: The detention of Serhiy Stetsyuk (associated with the Kolomoisky case) with high bail (1916Z) demonstrates continued focus on internal anti-corruption measures, essential for maintaining Western donor confidence.
Information Warfare: The release of RF soldier confession videos (1931Z) serves as a counter-narrative to Belousov’s "most combat-ready" claims, highlighting systemic indiscipline and war crimes within RF ranks.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Disinformation Alert: The claim of RDK leader Denis Kapustin’s death (1917Z) is assessed as a likely information operation to sow confusion among Russian volunteer units fighting for Ukraine. Confidence: LOW.
Internal Sentiment: Ukrainian domestic reporting on the normalization of illegal cigarette sales (1911Z) suggests a growing gray economy—a typical second-order effect of prolonged total war that could impact tax revenues for the 2026 defense budget.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will continue to use the fog and mud as cover for limited armored probing attacks in the Pokrovsk sector while maintaining high-volume KAB strikes on Sumy/Kharkiv to fix UAF forces.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF utilizes the degraded visibility (fog) to attempt a localized breakthrough in the Dnipropetrovsk border region, bypassing UAF drone screens that are currently limited by weather.
Timeline: Expect a surge in RF missile activity in the next 6 hours to coincide with the Belousov New Year narrative and to exploit the "air danger" status already established in the Lipetsk/Moscow corridors.
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
BVP/RDK Status: Immediate verification of Denis Kapustin’s status via friendly signal intercepts or visual proof of life.
Armor Attrition: Monitor the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad axis for "mud-stuck" RF vehicles; task FPV units with thermal sensors to target immobilized armor during nighttime hours.
KAB Launch Platforms: Geolocation of the Su-34/Su-35 platforms launching KABs at Kharkiv/Sumy to facilitate Patriot/SAMP-T ambush positioning.
