STRATEGIC STRIKE (HIGH): UAF specialized drone units, including "Madyar’s Birds," successfully targeted and destroyed a Russian "Shahed" storage and launch hub at the Donetsk Airport, including logistics centers and pre-flight maintenance facilities (0937Z, RBK-UA; 0959Z, Butusov Plus).
KREMLIN NARRATIVE SHIFT (HIGH): Kremlin Spokesperson Peskov officially designated an alleged drone strike on Putin’s Novgorod Oblast residence as a "terrorist act" intended to disrupt negotiations. He further stated that Russia will prioritize direct dialogue with the United States over Ukraine and that Putin’s current location is now a state secret (0936Z, Colonelcassad; 0938Z, Alex Parker; 0958Z, Alex Parker).
RF REAR AREA STRIKE (HIGH): A confirmed UAV attack occurred in Krasnodar, resulting in at least two civilian casualties and fragment damage; RF operational headquarters confirmed hospitalizations (0945Z, Two Majors; 0956Z, TASS).
INDUSTRIAL REPLENISHMENT (MEDIUM): The Novosibirsk Aviation Plant (NAV) delivered a new batch of frontline aircraft (likely Su-34 variants) to the RF MoD, potentially offsetting recent airframe losses (0952Z, Fighterbomber).
MARITIME HYBRID OPS (MEDIUM): Russian "shadow fleet" tankers have reportedly begun abandoning neutral "flags of convenience" in favor of direct Russian registration to mitigate international sanctions pressure (1001Z, Colonelcassad).
TACTICAL FIRE CONTROL (HIGH): The 15th Brigade NGU "Kara-Dag" has established consistent fire control over Russian concentration areas in the Kupiansk sector using deep-strike FPV and reconnaissance assets (0957Z, Privid Hortytsia).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
The operational environment is currently defined by a "strike-counterstrike" cycle in the deep rear. Ukraine is successfully targeting the Russian "Shahed" kill-chain at the source (Donetsk Airport), while Russia is leveraging an alleged strike on a presidential residence to pivot its diplomatic posture toward a Washington-centric framework.
Battlefield Geometry: The frontline remains static but high-intensity. UAF is utilizing specialized drone units to compensate for traditional artillery constraints, specifically in the Kupiansk and Donetsk sectors.
Weather/Environmental: No significant change; winter conditions persist, favoring stabilized lines and drone-heavy reconnaissance-strike complexes over large-scale mechanized maneuvers.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (IPB Step 2)
Strategic Intent: The Kremlin is using the Novgorod residence incident to delegitimize the Ukrainian government as a "terrorist entity," providing a pretext for refusing future bilateral talks and justifying potential escalatory "retaliatory" strikes.
Capabilities & Adaptations:
Air Power: Delivery of new aircraft from Novosibirsk (0952Z) indicates the RF defense industrial base remains capable of sustaining attrition in the tactical aviation fleet.
Unconventional Logistics: The shift of the "shadow fleet" to Russian flags suggests a hardening of maritime logistics against Western legal seizures, though it increases direct Russian state liability.
Tactical Activity: RF Spetsnaz (57th ORSpN) and the 56th Brigade are maintaining high pressure in the Artemivka/Oktyabrske and Novo Donbas sectors, focusing on destroying UAF personnel temporary deployment points (PVDs) (0941Z, Colonelcassad; 0959Z, DNR Militia).
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (IPB Step 3)
Force Posture: UAF continues to demonstrate high-end "long-arm" capabilities, specifically through Madyar’s units. The strike on Donetsk Airport (0937Z) is a significant tactical victory that will likely degrade the volume of Shahed launches in the Eastern sector for the next 48–72 hours.
Logistical Innovation: The 61st Separate Mechanized Brigade is increasingly relying on heavy lift UAVs for "last-mile" delivery of essential supplies to forward-deployed infantry, reducing the risk to ground transport vehicles (1003Z, General Staff UA).
Morale: High-profile successful strikes on RF infrastructure and the continued neutralization of collaborators (e.g., the sentencing of a torture-involved ex-policeman, 1000Z) serve as primary morale boosters.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IPB Step 4)
RF Disinformation: Kremlin messaging is currently contradictory; while Peskov claims the Novgorod strike was a "terrorist act," he simultaneously admitted there is no physical evidence that can be publicly shared (0956Z, ASTRA). This suggests the event may be a false flag or a highly controlled narrative to facilitate the "negotiate with US only" pivot.
Internal RF Security: The "disappearance" of Putin from public discourse ("location not subject to discussion") is likely a psychological operation to project a "war footing" and heighten domestic vigilance.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)
Most Likely Enemy Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will launch a significant "retaliatory" missile and Shahed wave within the next 12 hours, specifically targeting government decision-making centers in Kyiv to "answer" the alleged Novgorod strike.
Most Dangerous Enemy Course of Action (MDCOA): RF utilizes the "Oreshnik" system from Belarus (referenced in previous sitrep) to strike a high-value target in Western Ukraine, citing the Novgorod residence attack as the "red line" crossing that necessitates strategic escalation.
Timeline: 1000Z–2200Z 30 DEC 25 is a high-risk window for long-range precision strikes against Ukrainian administrative infrastructure.
Intelligence Gaps & Collection Requirements
Novgorod BDA: Confirm through independent SIGINT or commercial SAR imagery if any kinetic impact occurred at the Valdai/Novgorod residence.
Donetsk Airport Assessment: Obtain BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) of the Shahed storage units to determine the volume of destroyed airframes (estimated 20-50 units based on hub size).
Krasnodar UAV Origin: Determine launch point of Krasnodar UAVs to confirm if these were long-range systems from UA-controlled territory or internal sabotage/partisan groups.
Naval Movement: Track the "shadow fleet" tankers that switched flags; identify their current locations and whether they are loading at Novorossiysk or Primorsk.
