TRUMP-PUTIN COMMUNICATION: Former US President Donald Trump confirmed a direct conversation with Vladimir Putin where the "Valdai residence attack" was discussed; Trump expressed anger over the alleged incident and stated he does not support strikes on state residences (TASS/ASTRA, 1837Z-1850Z; HIGH).
ESCALATION RHETORIC: RF MFA spokesperson Maria Zakharova reiterated that Russia's response to the alleged UAV attack will be "not diplomatic," reinforcing the framework for a significant kinetic escalation (ASTRA, 1900Z; HIGH).
KUPYANSK IO COUNTER: UAF Joint Forces Operation (JFO) countered RF claims of control in Kupyansk, stating RF units in the city are localized to basements and effectively surrounded, characterizing RF MoD footage as staged or misleading (Оперативний ЗСУ, 1904Z; MEDIUM).
PERSONNEL RECRUITMENT INCENTIVES: C-in-C Syrskyi announced that new contract personnel will receive payments three times higher than current rates, indicating a strategic push to bolster professional force numbers (ЦАПЛІЄНКО, 1835Z; HIGH).
ZAPORIZHZHIA AIR ACTIVITY: RF 11th Air Army conducted night strikes on Boikovo (Zaporizhzhia Oblast); UAF Air Force reports Shahed-type UAVs moving from the south toward Zaporizhzhia city (Colonelcassad, 1903Z; Air Force ZSU, 1836Z; HIGH).
DRUZHKIVKA AXIS: New reporting indicates RF offensive pressure is expanding toward the Druzhkivka direction (Военкор Котенок, 1902Z; LOW).
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Axis (Kupyansk/Kharkiv):
Kupyansk: A heavy Information Operation (IO) battle is underway. UAF denies RF control, asserting that any RF presence in the town is isolated and "in encirclement."
Kharkiv City: Threatened by UAVs approaching from the north (RF border) (Air Force ZSU, 1843Z).
Eastern Axis (Donbas):
Kostiantynivka: Ongoing damage to multi-story residential buildings confirms continued heavy shelling or missile strikes (Оперативний ЗСУ, 1857Z).
Druzhkivka: Emerging as a potential new vector for RF "Vostok" group pressure (Военкор Котенок, 1902Z).
Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia):
Eastern Flank: RF "Vostok" group intensifying mechanized and air-supported pushes. Specific targeting of Boikovo suggests an attempt to degrade the UAF tactical rear near the Zaporizhzhia/Donetsk border.
Huliaipole: FPV drone footage confirms localized engagements south of the settlement (Воин DV, 1835Z).
Casualties: Confirmation of the loss of Vitaliy Medushevskyi (UAF high-value sniper) on Dec 26, a blow to specialized tactical capabilities (Colonelcassad, 1843Z).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Main Effort: Encirclement of Zaporizhzhia remains the operational priority, supported by tactical probes toward Druzhkivka.
Weaponization of Diplomacy: The RF is successfully leveraging the "Valdai incident" to drive a wedge between UAF deep-strike ambitions and US political support. By briefing Donald Trump directly, Putin is attempting to bypass current US administrative channels to constrain Ukrainian operational freedom.
Aerial Operations: Continued use of Shahed UAVs to saturate air defenses in Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia prior to possible larger strikes.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Force Generation: The 3x pay increase for contract soldiers is a significant fiscal commitment aimed at stabilizing the front line with experienced/professional personnel rather than mobilized units.
Information Defense: JFO is aggressively debunking RF "flag-raising" videos in Kupyansk to prevent panic and maintain the integrity of the northern defense line.
Civilian Resilience: Completion of repairs to 110 residential roofs in Kyiv's Solomianskyi district demonstrates effective recovery operations despite ongoing strikes (Мовенко Сергій, 1849Z).
Information environment / disinformation
"Valdai Attack" Narrative: This has reached a strategic crescendo. The Russian narrative is no longer just domestic; it is being validated/commented upon by major international political actors (Trump), increasing the pressure on Kyiv to provide proof of denial or face international diplomatic friction.
Demoralization: RF channels are circulating videos of wounded UAF soldiers asking for money, aimed at portraying the Ukrainian state as unable to care for its veterans (Alex Parker Returns, 1900Z).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): Continued UAV swarms over Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv to identify AD gaps. Persistent ground pressure in the Prymorske/Boikovo area.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): A multi-domain "retaliatory" strike involving Kalibr and Iskander missiles, justified by Zakharova’s "non-diplomatic" warnings and socialized via the Putin-Trump call.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Druzhkivka FEBA: Determine if "Vostok" group activity near Druzhkivka indicates a shift in main effort or a diversion from the Zaporizhzhia axis.
Kupyansk "Pockets": Confirm the exact number and location of RF "basement units" in Kupyansk to verify the UAF JFO's claim of encirclement.
Strategic Comms: Monitor for any official GOU or MoD response to the reported Trump-Putin conversation.
INTELLIGENCE PREPARATION OF THE BATTLEFIELD (IPB) SUMMARY
SITUATION OVERVIEW: The conflict has shifted into a high-stakes diplomatic and kinetic pivot point. The RF is using a purported tactical event (Valdai UAVs) to achieve strategic isolation of Ukraine from its primary security guarantor.
ENEMY ANALYSIS: RF forces are maintaining high operational tempo in the south while utilizing hybrid warfare (staged videos in Kupyansk, direct outreach to US political figures) to erode UAF morale and Western support.
FRIENDLY FORCES: UAF is responding to manpower shortages with financial incentives while maintaining a disciplined informational defense. Tactical losses of specialists (snipers) on the Zaporizhzhia front are being felt.
INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT: The narrative control has temporarily shifted toward the RF due to the involvement of high-level US political commentary. UAF must regain the initiative by either proving the "Valdai" claim is a false flag or demonstrating the military necessity of such strikes.
PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS: The "non-diplomatic" response from Russia is imminent. All indicators point toward a significant kinetic event within the next 24 hours, likely targeting energy or C2 infrastructure in Kyiv or Zaporizhzhia.
