ADMISSION OF SECTORAL FAILURE: UAF Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi confirmed a breakthrough in the Huliaipole direction, attributing it to a Territorial Defense (TRO) brigade that "could not withstand the pressure" of Russian assaults (Оперативний ЗСУ, 1744Z; HIGH).
ESCALATION PRETEXT REACHES PEAK: Russian state officials and military correspondents (Kots, Ushakov, Kolesnik) are synchronized in framing the alleged "Valdai attack" as a definitive turning point, explicitly threatening a "heavy" and "massive" retaliatory strike authorized at the highest level (Alex Parker Returns, 1746Z; Kotsnews, 1757Z; Старше Эдды, 1803Z; HIGH).
MOBILIZATION CLARITY: Syrskyi stated that the proposed US peace plan does not limit Ukraine's mobilization capacity. He further claimed Russian losses (410k+) have now exceeded their recent mobilization intake of 406k (Оперативний ЗСУ, 1738Z; РБК-Україна, 1740Z; MEDIUM).
KUPYANSK COUNTER-ASSAULT: Russian sources report UAF has committed "foreign mercenaries" and special forces to a counteroffensive to regain positions in Kupyansk (Операция Z, 1804Z; UNCONFIRMED/LOW).
LYMAN DRONE INTENSIFICATION: Deployment of the "Rubicon" drone unit in the Krasnolimansk (Lyman) direction indicates increased RF precision strike capability following the capture of Dibrova (Colonelcassad, 1802Z; MEDIUM).
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Axis (Kupyansk/Kharkiv):
Heavy fighting reported within Kupyansk city limits. RF sources claim to be repelling UAF counter-attacks. If confirmed, this indicates a UAF effort to spoil the RF "liquidation" timeline (Feb 2026).
Eastern Axis (Lyman/Donbas):
Lyman Sector: RF "Rubicon" drone unit is conducting active SEAD/precision strikes against armored vehicles and communication towers to consolidate gains near Dibrova.
Pokrovsk: Tactical grit confirmed by 21-year-old "Skala" regiment soldier holding a position solo (ЦАПЛІЄНКО, 1741Z), though the sector remains under heavy Giatsint-S artillery pressure.
Sloviansk: Civil defense recovery is underway after a missile/artillery strike trapped civilians under rubble (ЦАПЛІЄНКО, 1751Z).
Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia/Huliaipole):
Huliaipole: Confirmed defensive breach. The failure of the TRO brigade suggests a localized collapse of the secondary defensive line, which RF forces are likely exploiting to bypass the Orikhiv fortifications.
Energy Grid: RF analysis estimates Ukraine needs 60 days of kinetic silence to restore the power grid, signaling that RF targeting will likely focus on resetting this "restoration clock" (Дневник Десантника, 1737Z).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Course of Action - Deep Strike: The rhetoric regarding the "Valdai residence" has shifted from diplomatic posturing to specific military threats. Combined with the previously reported staging of 700 UAVs, Russia is likely preparing a multi-axis missile and drone strike targeting "decision-making centers" and energy nodes.
Attrition Parity: While Syrskyi claims RU losses exceed mobilization, the RF continues to deploy specialized units like "Rubicon" and "Center" group veterans, suggesting that while raw numbers are strained, tactical quality in key sectors remains high.
Friendly activity (UAF)
C2/Administrative Realignment: ARMA (Asset Recovery and Management Agency) has been moved under the direct coordination of the Prime Minister, likely to streamline the "reparations" and "asset seizure" mechanisms associated with the new US-UA security framework (РБК-Україна, 1741Z).
Economic Stabilization: The Cabinet of Ministers has deferred the mandatory use of payment terminals for small businesses (FOP 1st group), likely a move to maintain domestic economic resilience and reduce social friction during high mobilization (РБК-Україна, 1745Z).
Information environment / disinformation
"Retaliation" Narrative: This is the dominant Russian IO theme. It serves two purposes: 1) To justify an upcoming mass strike to the domestic Russian audience. 2) To signal to the incoming US administration that Ukraine is an "uncontrollable" actor.
TRO Delegitimization: Pro-Russian channels are amplifying the failure of the TRO brigade in Huliaipole to demoralize recruits and suggest that only "Russian soldiers" can provide order (Kotsnews, 1735Z).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Continued exploitation of the Huliaipole breach by RF mechanized elements to gain flanking positions on the Zaporizhzhia axis.
MDCOA: (High Probability) Commencement of the mass "retaliation" strike tonight, utilizing the 700 staged UAVs and air-launched missiles (Kh-101/Kalibr) specifically targeting Kyiv and energy TPPs to disrupt the 2-month restoration window.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
HULIAIPOLE FEBA: Identify the current depth of the RF penetration following the TRO brigade withdrawal. Has the 35th Army committed its second-tier reserves to this breach?
KUPYANSK COUNTEROFFENSIVE: Verify the composition of UAF units in Kupyansk. Is this a sustained counter-offensive or a localized spoiling attack?
RETALIATION ASSETS: Monitor for Tu-95MS/Tu-160 takeoffs from Olenya or Engels airbases, which would confirm the transition from a UAV-only strike to a coordinated strategic missile attack.
INTELLIGENCE PREPARATION OF THE BATTLEFIELD (IPB) SUMMARY
SITUATION OVERVIEW: The frontline is unstable in the South (Huliaipole) and East (Lyman). The "Valdai" narrative has provided the RF with the political "green light" for a significant strategic escalation.
ENEMY ANALYSIS: RF is effectively integrating specialized drone units (Rubicon) to support ground advances. Their C2 is focused on exploiting the Huliaipole breach to validate the "15km from Zaporizhzhia" claim.
FRIENDLY FORCES: UAF leadership is candid about sectoral failures but maintains that overall mobilization and strategic partnership (US security pact) remain robust.
INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT: The Kremlin has successfully socialized the concept of "unrestricted retaliation" for the Valdai incident.
PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS: A large-scale kinetic event in the next 12 hours is HIGHLY LIKELY. The Huliaipole sector is currently the most vulnerable point for a tactical breakthrough.
