DIPLOMATIC (POLAND): Polish PM Donald Tusk formally signaled support for President Zelenskyy ahead of the Mar-a-Lago negotiations (1938Z, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH).
AERIAL THREAT (ZAPORIZHZHIA): A Russian reconnaissance UAV has been detected south of Zaporizhzhia city; UAF air defense assets are currently engaged in interception (1941Z, Air Force UAF, HIGH).
DIPLOMATIC (MAR-A-LAGO): Donald Trump stated that Vladimir Putin is taking the current negotiations "very seriously"; the meeting has transitioned to a closed-door session with press removed (1944Z, Operatsiya Z; 1958Z, RBK-Ukraine, MEDIUM).
TACTICAL (POKROVSK): Pro-Russian sources have initiated a targeted fundraising campaign for the Pokrovsk sector, suggesting sustained logistical strain or preparation for a renewed push (1950Z, Dva Majora, LOW).
WAR CRIMES (HULIAIPOLE): Additional confirmation and reporting on the execution of three Ukrainian POWs south of Huliaipole (2001Z, Tsaplienko/DeepState, HIGH).
Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment remains centered on the friction between high-level diplomatic signaling and frontline kinetic intensity. The detection of a reconnaissance UAV south of Zaporizhzhia city (1941Z) suggests the Russian Federation (RF) is actively refining its target list in the southern theater, likely in coordination with the ongoing Huliaipole-Primorske offensive mentioned in previous reports. Weather remains a restrictive factor in the West, while the East continues to see high-intensity UAV/drone attrition.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Intentions: RF leadership appears to be using a "pressure-negotiation" model. While Trump signals Putin’s "seriousness" (1944Z), RF tactical units continue to execute POWs (2001Z) and conduct ISR over major urban centers like Zaporizhzhia. This suggests an intent to maintain maximum leverage during the Mar-a-Lago talks.
Logistics & Sustainment: The fundraising appeal for the Pokrovsk direction (1950Z) by Russian "mil-bloggers" indicates that despite tactical gains, RF units in this sector may be experiencing supply gaps in specialized equipment or COTS (Commercial Off-The-Shelf) technology.
Domestic constraints: Continued legal challenges in Russia against Roskomnadzor regarding communication blocks (1951Z) indicate friction within the Russian domestic information space and potential vulnerability in their internal C2/communication bypasses.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Diplomatic Posture: The UAF leadership has secured a unified front with Poland (Tusk support, 1938Z), which is critical for ensuring the "20-point plan" aligns with European security interests.
Tactical Successes: UAF drone units continue to demonstrate high lethality against RF personnel in localized engagements (1956Z), maintaining a high attrition rate despite RF mechanized pressure.
Defensive Actions: Active engagement of ISR platforms over Zaporizhzhia indicates high alert levels for southern Air Defense (AD) nodes.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Strategic Narrative: RF-aligned channels (Operatsiya Z, Colonelcassad) are amplifying Trump's comments to project an image of Russian strength and legitimacy at the negotiating table.
Morale: The dissemination of the Konev historical commemoration (2001Z) by RF airborne channels serves to bolster internal Russian morale by linking the current conflict to WWII-era Soviet successes.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will continue to utilize reconnaissance UAVs (detected 1941Z) to spot for a secondary wave of KABs or loitering munitions against Zaporizhzhia and Kramatorsk within the next 6 hours.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF capitalizes on the "closed-door" nature of the Mar-a-Lago talks to launch a significant tactical breakthrough attempt in the Pokrovsk or Primorske sectors, aiming to present a fait accompli before any ceasefire framework is finalized.
Operational picture (by sector)
Pokrovsk Sector:TENSE/PREPARATORY. Signs of Russian logistical replenishment/fundraising. UAF holding northern industrial zones (ref: Daily Report).
Zaporizhzhia (City):INCREASED ISR THREAT. Active Russian reconnaissance UAVs operating in the southern outskirts.
Huliaipole:HIGH TENSION. Confirmed Russian atrocities (POW executions) likely to lead to increased kinetic intensity as UAF units respond to the escalation.
Kharkiv:KINETIC. Continued KAB threat from previous sitrep remains active.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Diplomatic: Expect a joint statement or high-level leak regarding the "20-point plan" as the closed-door Mar-a-Lago session concludes.
Tactical: High probability of a multi-vector UAV/missile strike tonight, leveraging the SAR-detected readiness at AB Shaykovka (Daily Report) and the recent recon flight over Zaporizhzhia.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Zaporizhzhia ISR Data: Determine if the UAV south of Zaporizhzhia (1941Z) was transmitting real-time targeting data for Iskander or Kalibr batteries.
Pokrovsk Logistics: Assess the scale of the Russian fundraising (1950Z) to determine if it targets specific shortages (e.g., thermal optics, EW) that can be exploited.
Primary Source BDA: Request Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) for the recent KAB strikes in Kharkiv to determine if C2 nodes were compromised.
