MASSIVE MLRS ATTACK - KHERSON (HIGH): RF forces conducted a saturation strike using Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS) against residential areas and critical infrastructure in Kherson. (0350Z, RBK-Ukraine/MBA Yaroslav Shanko, HIGH).
INFRASTRUCTURE DAMAGE (HIGH): The Kherson strike has resulted in partial city-wide blackouts; duration of repairs is currently unknown (0350Z, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH).
DIPLOMATIC SIGNALING (MEDIUM): RF Foreign Minister Lavrov characterized the European "party of war" as being prepared to escalate "to the end," signaling a rejection of recent de-escalatory diplomatic overtures (0404Z, TASS, MEDIUM).
PSYCHOLOGICAL OPERATIONS (LOW): RF-aligned airborne channels are increasing nationalist rhetoric ("Russia is a bear"), likely to bolster domestic morale following UAF drone strikes in Rostov (0402Z, Dnevnik Desantnika, LOW).
Operational picture (by sector)
Southern Sector (Kherson): The situation has transitioned from routine artillery harassment to a concentrated infrastructure denial operation. The use of MLRS against the power grid in Kherson mirrors the broader "Naftogaz" targeting strategy noted in the 24h summary, indicating a multi-vector assault on Ukrainian energy stability.
Southern Military District (RF Rear): Following the Rostov drone strikes (0313Z), RF air defenses remain on high alert. No new kinetic activity reported in Rostov since 0313Z, but the region remains a high-priority target for UAF deep-strike assets.
Northern Sector (Sumy): No further corroboration of the "Colonelcassad" report (0335Z) regarding active engagements. The area remains a high-probability zone for RF diversionary raids.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Shift: RF is utilizing high-volume MLRS strikes on frontline urban centers (Kherson) to achieve the same effects as strategic missile strikes on the interior—specifically, grid failure and civilian displacement.
Information Strategy: Lavrov’s comments (0404Z) suggest the Kremlin is framing the continued conflict as a defensive necessity against "European extremists," likely to preemptively justify any escalation following the Zelenskyy-Trump meeting.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Emergency Management: Kherson Military Administration (MBA) is currently engaged in damage control and power restoration.
Strategic Timing: UAF maintains its deep-strike pressure (Rostov/Moscow) despite the intense infrastructure pressure at home, suggesting a "tit-for-tat" attrition strategy during the current diplomatic window.
Information environment / disinformation
Narrative Contestation: RF state media (TASS) is pivoting toward a "Western escalation" narrative. This is likely intended to shift the blame for the winter energy crisis onto European support for Ukraine.
Belief Analysis: Dempster-Shafer data indicates a strong focus on Information Warfare/Propaganda (Belief 0.31) and Diplomatic Disagreement (Belief 0.22), reflecting the high noise-to-signal ratio regarding the European policy stance.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will continue localized MLRS and tube artillery strikes against energy distribution nodes in Kherson and Nikopol to prevent grid stabilization.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF utilizes the disruption in Kherson and the command turnover in Siversk to launch a coordinated tactical push in the Siversk Salient, timed to coincide with the Zelenskyy-Trump meeting (approx. 0500-0600Z) to maximize political embarrassment for the UAF.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Kherson Grid Status: Determine if the "partial blackout" affects water pumping stations or hospital backup systems.
MLRS Launch Sites: Identify the specific launch locations for the Kherson attack (likely left bank positions near Oleshky) for counter-battery targeting.
Sumy Verification: Still require IMINT/SIGINT confirmation of RF movement in the Sumy sector to rule out a feint.
Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The battlefield is currently characterized by a "Dual-Track Attrition" model. While the Eastern Front (Siversk/Pokrovsk) faces a C2 crisis, the Southern Front (Kherson) is being subjected to "Infrastructure Terror." The weather remains a critical factor; sub-zero temperatures amplify the impact of the Kherson blackout, potentially forcing a tactical redeployment of UAF civil-military resources.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Course of Action: RF is prioritizing "soft target" saturation (residential/infrastructure) over direct military assaults in the South. This suggests a desire to freeze the front line through humanitarian crisis rather than territorial gain.
Command & Control: RF state messaging (Lavrov) is tightly synchronized with kinetic events (Kherson strike), suggesting high-level coordination between the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the General Staff to influence the upcoming US-Ukraine diplomatic engagement.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Readiness: The Kherson MBA's rapid reporting suggests effective local communication, but the physical ability to repair infrastructure under ongoing MLRS threat is assessed as LOW.
Force Posture: UAF AD remains overstretched between protecting the Moscow-strike assets and defending the domestic energy grid.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Strategic Messaging: The "European party of war" narrative is a clear attempt to drive a wedge between US and EU policy ahead of the Zelenskyy-Trump meeting.
Morale: Continued strikes on Kherson are designed to degrade civilian resolve and pressure the UAF to redirect AD assets from the Pokrovsk/Siversk sectors to the south.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Timeline: The next 2-4 hours are critical. If RF kinetic activity increases in the Siversk/Sumy sectors, it will confirm a multi-axis attempt to exploit the current command transitions and the diplomatic distraction.
Decision Point: UAF high command must decide whether to reinforce Kherson's AD at the expense of protecting the remaining Naftogaz hubs identified in the previous 24h report.
