Situation Update (1500Z 27 DEC 25)
Key updates since last sitrep
- KYIV UTILITY STATUS (MEDIUM): Water supply has been fully restored to Kyiv and the surrounding oblast following emergency repairs (1449Z, RBC-UA, HIGH). However, 500,000 households remain without electricity as DTEK struggles with grid stability (1452Z, RBC-UA, HIGH).
- MOSCOW SATURATION ATTACK (HIGH): An additional 8 Ukrainian UAVs were intercepted over Moscow in the last hour, bringing the documented total to 14+ for the day; "Carpet" restrictions remain in effect (1455Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM).
- STRATEGIC ENERGY TARGETING (HIGH): RF strikes have expanded to include Naftogaz CHPs and critical gas production facilities, shifting from electrical distribution to the primary fuel supply chain (1439Z, ASTRA, HIGH).
- POKROVSK SECTOR DEGRADATION (HIGH): UAF 15th National Guard Brigade has reportedly lost multiple UAV control points near Rodinske due to targeted RF strikes, threatening local tactical reconnaissance parity (1445Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM).
- AERIAL TACTICS ADAPTATION (MEDIUM): RF "Geran-2" (Shahed) drones are now utilizing ultra-low altitude flight paths to penetrate Kyiv’s air defense bubble, complicating interception by mobile fire groups (1446Z, Operatsiya Z, MEDIUM).
- SUMY KAB STRIKES (MEDIUM): New launches of guided aerial bombs (KAB) targeted the Sumy region, indicating an expansion of the aerial interdiction zone beyond the Kharkiv axis (1437Z, AFU Air Force, HIGH).
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Kyiv & Northern Sector: Infrastructure Attrition
The situation has transitioned from a kinetic strike phase to a recovery-under-fire phase. While water restoration (1449Z) mitigates a humanitarian crisis, the 500k power deficit remains critical. The use of ultra-low altitude drones (1446Z) indicates RF efforts to find gaps in the Western-provided Integrated Air Defense System (IADS) protecting the capital.
2. Eastern Sector (Pokrovsk/Donetsk): Westward Pressure
RF forces are pushing beyond the immediate Pokrovsk urban area, with active combat reported near Hryshyne (1450Z). The reported destruction of UAF drone control points in Rodinske (1445Z) suggests a coordinated RF effort to "blind" UAF tactical units before further mechanized advances west of Pokrovsk.
3. Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia): High Intensity
Air raid alerts remain active across the oblast (1442Z). Tactical engagements continue around Mykolaipillya, where RF sources claim the destruction of UAF western-manufactured armor (Leopard) (1458Z). The sector remains unstable following the loss of Huliaipole and regional command elements.
4. Rear RF (Moscow/Crimea): Strategic Counter-Pressure
UAF long-range strikes on Moscow are sustained, forcing RF to maintain high-alert AD postures and disrupting civil aviation. In Crimea, Wagner-affiliated groups are conducting domestic influence operations (charity events) to maintain morale amidst the recent degradation of Crimean AD (1445Z).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
- Tactical Course of Action: In the Pokrovsk sector, RF is employing a "sensor-denial" strategy, prioritizing the elimination of UAF drone operators and C2 nodes to facilitate ground assaults.
- Strategic Course of Action: The shift to targeting Naftogaz gas production facilities (1439Z) suggests a deliberate "Winter Campaign" pivot aimed at collapsing not just the electrical grid, but the entire heating and fuel infrastructure of Ukraine.
- Hybrid/External Operations: TASS reports (1438Z) highlight the use of RF electronic warfare (EW) specialists in the Central African Republic (CAR), demonstrating that RF retains surplus high-tech assets for power projection despite the intensity of the Ukrainian theater.
Friendly activity (UAF)
- Grid Recovery: Rapid restoration of water in Kyiv Oblast demonstrates high resilience in civil engineering units (1449Z).
- Strategic Signaling: President Zelenskyy has intensified diplomatic pressure on China, publicly labeling Beijing’s role as "financing the war" (1446Z). This likely aims to force a secondary diplomatic front as UAF maintains military pressure on Moscow.
- Deep Strikes: Sustained UAV sorties into Moscow airspace (1455Z) are successfully imposing political and logistical costs on the Kremlin, forcing the diversion of AD assets.
Information environment / disinformation
- "Path to War" Narrative: Russian-aligned Finnish sources (Janus Putkonen, 1444Z) are circulating narratives regarding Finland's "path to war" with the RF, likely intended to sow domestic discord within NATO's newest member.
- Confirmation of Losses: Pro-Russian channels (Alex Parker, 1459Z) are amplifying reports of the death of volunteer commander "White Rex," using it to degrade the morale of Russian volunteer units fighting for Ukraine.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
- Most Likely (MLCOA): Continued saturation of the Kyiv AD bubble with low-altitude drones to prevent the full restoration of the power grid. RF will likely attempt to exploit the "blind spot" in the Rodinske area (Pokrovsk front) with localized platoon-to-company sized assaults.
- Most Dangerous (MDCOA): A coordinated missile strike on the gas transit/storage nodes identified in recent ASTRA reports, which could cause a catastrophic failure of the heating season in Central Ukraine.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
- Gas Infrastructure BDA: Precise Battle Damage Assessment of the Naftogaz facilities. Is gas production halted or merely degraded?
- Rodinske Sector Integrity: Confirm if the 15th National Guard Bde has re-established drone C2 or if RF has successfully achieved local aerial supremacy.
- Moscow AD Depletion: Monitor RF AD response times in Moscow to determine if the saturation attacks are successfully exhausting missile stocks.
//IPB ANALYSIS COMPLETE//
