MASS MISSILE STRIKE INITIATED (HIGH): Multiple groups of cruise missiles (KRs) have entered Ukrainian airspace via Sumy and Poltava Oblasts. At least 10 missiles were detected near Akhtyrka at 0512Z. Missiles are currently utilizing evasive "snake" flight paths toward Cherkasy and Kirovohrad Oblasts (AF UAF, 0509Z; Nikolaevsky Vanek, 0512Z, 0523Z).
TU-22M3 DEPLOYMENT (HIGH): Two Tu-22M3 Backfire bombers were detected near Kerch transiting toward Sevastopol (0521Z). This indicates a potential secondary launch phase or the use of Kh-22/32 supersonic missiles against southern/maritime targets (Nikolaevsky Vanek, 0521Z).
KINETIC IMPACTS IN KYIV (HIGH): Confirmed impacts/debris in Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast. Current casualty count stands at 5 civilians; 3 hospitalized (Kyiv City Military Administration, 0531Z; Klitschko via RBK-Ukraine, 0525Z).
EASTERN FRONT MANEUVER (LOW - UNCONFIRMED): Russian sources claim an advance west of Svyato-Pokrovske and the commencement of urban combat in Reznikovka, DNR. This remains unconfirmed by UAF official channels (Marochko via TASS, 0526Z).
VREMYEVKA INTERDICTION (MEDIUM): Russian 36th Army (Vostok Group) is actively targeting UAF communications infrastructure using OWA-UAVs in the Vremyevka direction (Voin DV, 0515Z).
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern/Kyiv Sector (CRITICAL): The OWA-UAV saturation wave noted in the 0505Z report has transitioned to kinetic impacts. Air defenses are currently engaging both UAVs and incoming cruise missiles. Casualties reported in the capital.
Central Corridor (Sumy/Cherkasy/Poltava): This is the primary transit vector for the current cruise missile wave. RF is employing complex maneuvers, bypassing Cherkasy city to the southwest toward Uman, likely to confuse AD interception geometry.
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Vremyevka): High-intensity shelling continues with 485 strikes on 22 settlements in 24h. RF is prioritizing the destruction of UAF C2/comms nodes in the Vremyevka sector to facilitate ground maneuvers (Zaporizhzhia OVA, 0510Z; Voin DV, 0515Z).
Crimean/Black Sea Theater: Activation of Tu-22M3s near Sevastopol suggests the maritime/coastal phase of the mass strike is imminent.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Adaptation: The RF has shifted from "mapping" AD with UAVs to a coordinated cruise missile strike. The "snake" flight patterns (Nikolaevsky Vanek, 0523Z) are a documented tactic to drain AD interceptor fuel and time-to-target calculations.
Aviation Posture: The movement of Tu-22M3s into the Sevastopol firing box increases the threat to Odesa’s logistics hubs and the remaining energy infrastructure in the south.
Ground Force Intent: The reported activity in Reznikovka and Vremyevka suggests the RF is attempting to exploit the distraction of the national-level missile strike to improve tactical positioning on the FEBA.
Friendly activity (UAF)
IADS Engagement: Air Force and Mobile Fire Groups are in maximum engagement mode across the northern and central sectors.
Damage Control: Emergency services are active in Kyiv following impacts.
Counter-Electronic Warfare: Units in the Vremyevka sector are likely adjusting comms protocols following the 36th Army's focus on signal nodes.
Information environment / disinformation
Cognitive Dissonance: RF state media continues to project "domestic normalcy" (driving license extensions, New Year's TV statistics) while military channels (Fighterbomber) post aggressive "good morning" messages from aircrews. This is a deliberate hybrid strategy to maintain domestic stability while executing high-intensity strikes (TASS, 0513Z; Fighterbomber, 0513Z; Новости Москвы, 0516Z).
Dempster-Shafer Support: Analytical belief remains high (0.30) that Russian messaging is heavily bifurcated between domestic "holiday" propaganda and tactical intimidation.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): The cruise missile wave will likely impact targets in Western Ukraine and the energy grid in the next 1-2 hours. Tu-22M3s will launch Kh-22s targeting southern infrastructure (bridges or ports) to conclude the morning wave.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): A second wave of Kalibr missiles from the Black Sea Fleet synchronized with the Tu-22M3 strike to overwhelm Southern AD, potentially coupled with a mechanized push in the Huliaipole/Vremyevka sector to capitalize on C2 disruption.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Tu-22M3 Launch Confirmation: Immediate SIGINT/ELINT required to confirm if missiles have been released from the Backfire bombers near Sevastopol.
Energy Grid Status: Initial BDA on power substation integrity following Kyiv impacts.
Reznikovka Verification: Drone reconnaissance required to confirm the status of Reznikovka and the purported RF advance west of Svyato-Pokrovske.
