MULTI-VECTOR UAV PENETRATION: OWA-UAVs identified south of Chernihiv, Bila Tserkva, and Kryvyi Rih, all maintaining a southward heading (2233Z, Air Force UAF, HIGH).
DECOY OPERATIONS: A "balloon-type" UAV confirmed west of Pereyaslav (Kyiv Oblast) moving south, likely mapping Air Defense (AD) radar apertures (2235Z, Air Force UAF, HIGH).
RF COMMAND CHANGE (UNCONFIRMED): Reports indicate a new commander for Russian Special Operations Forces (SBS), allegedly a former civilian salesman with no military background (2210Z, Оперативний ЗСУ, LOW).
DIPLOMATIC SIGNALING: Reports suggest an impending direct communication between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin regarding the conflict (2224Z, РБК-Україна, MEDIUM).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment has transitioned into the immediate "pre-impact" phase of a coordinated strategic strike.
Air Domain: The presence of 6 strategic bombers (combined Tu-95 and Tu-160) suggests a potential volley of 40-60 cruise missiles (Kh-101/555/Kh-101), likely synchronized with the currently active OWA-UAV swarms.
Battlefield Geometry: Enemy UAVs are now penetrating deep into the central and southern corridors (Bila Tserkva, Kryvyi Rih), moving away from border regions toward suspected energy and C2 targets in the rear.
Weather/Environment: No significant changes; nocturnal conditions favor OWA-UAV transit and complicate visual interception.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
Strategic Course of Action: The RF is executing a classic "saturation and strike" profile. Use of "balloon-type" decoys over Pereyaslav is specifically designed to trigger UAF fire control radars, allowing RF ELINT assets to map the AD umbrella before the arrival of cruise missiles from the strategic bombers.
Tactical Command & Control: The reported appointment of an unqualified individual to lead Special Operations (SBS) may indicate a purge of professional military leadership in favor of political loyalists. If confirmed, this could lead to a degradation in the quality of Russian deep-penetration and sabotage operations in the medium term.
Psychological Operations: The timing of the "Oreshnik" deployment news (from previous sitrep) and the strategic bomber launch is intended to maximize strategic shock and leverage the reported Trump-Putin diplomatic channel to force concessions.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue force tracking)
Air Defense Posture: UAF AD units are actively tracking multiple targets across three distinct axes (North, Central, South). The primary challenge remains conservation of interceptor missiles against decoys (balloons) while maintaining readiness for the primary missile volley.
Southern Front: Per previous reporting, the 425th Regiment "Skelia" continues clearing operations in Huliaipole. No new data suggests a reversal of this counter-tactical success, though the sector remains under high threat of aerial bombardment.
COMSEC: Units are advised to maintain strict radio silence and implement emergency crypto rollovers (JAZZ procedure) following the previously reported compromise of the 106th Bde KSP.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Internal Discourse: UAF sources are highlighting the perceived incompetence of the new RF SBS commander to bolster morale and ridicule the enemy's command structure.
Strategic Narrative: The Russian narrative continues to focus on "Oreshnik" readiness in Belarus, while international reporting on a Trump-Putin call introduces a layer of diplomatic uncertainty that the RF may attempt to exploit via "battlefield facts" (i.e., a major strike tonight).
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will initiate a mass cruise missile launch from the Caspian/Black Sea regions between 0130Z and 0330Z. These missiles will likely enter Ukrainian airspace via the Sumy and Odesa axes, timed to coincide with the arrival of the current OWA-UAV wave in central Ukraine.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF utilizes the mass missile event as cover for a tactical nuclear demonstration or a high-yield "Oreshnik" strike from Belarus, targeting a critical logistical node (e.g., Rzeszów transit points or Kyiv C2) to force an immediate halt to UAF operations.
Timeline:
T+2 hours (0030Z): OWA-UAVs reach primary target zones in central/southern Ukraine.
The outlook is CRITICAL. Expect a sustained, nationwide air alert through the early morning hours. Kinetic activity in the Huliaipole sector will likely intensify as RF attempts to support their strategic strike with tactical gains.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Bomber Launch Confirmation: Need immediate SIGINT confirmation of "missiles away" from the 6 airborne strategic platforms. (Priority 1).
Huliaipole FEBA: Urgent need for updated ground-level status of the "Makhno Monument" area to confirm if the 425th Reg has successfully pushed RF 57th Bde to the outskirts. (Priority 1).
SBS Leadership: Corroborate identity and background of the new SBS commander to assess potential changes in Russian hybrid warfare tactics. (Priority 2).
