HULIAIPOLE URBAN COMBAT: Official UAF confirmation of active fighting in the city center, as well as the western and southern sectors, verifying the depth of the Russian penetration (1533Z, Voloshyn/Tsaplienko, HIGH).
RODYNSKE CAPTURE CLAIM: Russian-aligned "Storm" units claim "full control" of Rodynske (Donetsk sector). This remains UNCONFIRMED by UAF sources (1510Z, WarGonzo, MEDIUM).
ENERGY CRISIS ESCALATION: Official announcement of nationwide rolling blackouts and industrial power limits for 27 DEC, corroborating previous assessments of a degraded grid ahead of expected mass strikes (1515Z, Operativnyi ZSU, HIGH).
KHARKIV KAB STRIKES: Russian aviation launched three Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs) against Kharkiv, resulting in at least 2 KIA and 6 WIA; strikes continue to target urban logistical hubs (1520Z, Synegubov, HIGH).
NORTHERN UAV THREAT: One-way attack UAVs (OWA-UAVs) detected in Chernihiv region on a course toward Sedniv, indicating continued use of northern vectors (1521Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH).
DOMESTIC DEFENSE PRODUCTION: UAF reports that over 50% of current weaponry is now domestically produced, indicating a strategic shift toward self-sufficiency in high-attrition assets (1510Z, Svyrydenko, HIGH).
Operational picture (by sector)
Southern Sector (Huliaipole): The situation has transitioned from a localized breach to intensive urban warfare. Combat is confirmed in the center, west, and south. This indicates UAF is still contesting the city despite the earlier loss of the 106th Brigade KSP. The primary objective is preventing a Russian breakout toward the T0518 highway.
Donetsk Sector (Pokrovsk/Rodynske Axis): RF claims to have secured Rodynske. If confirmed, this represents a tactical flanking maneuver that increases pressure on the Pokrovsk logistical hub from the north.
Kharkiv Sector: RF maintains high-intensity KAB strikes. The focus remains on civilian-military friction and interdiction of internal lines of communication (LOCs). UAF FPV units reported localized successes, neutralizing an RF 5-man squad (1511Z, Sternenko).
Northern Vector (Chernihiv/Belarus): Active OWA-UAV transit through Chernihiv airspace confirms the "Belarusian corridor" is being utilized to bypass primary AD belts in the south and east.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Evolution: RF "Storm" units are demonstrating increased proficiency in urban seizure, likely supported by localized ISR-strike loops.
Counter-Intelligence Crackdown: High-profile FSB activity in St. Petersburg (70+ detentions) and the sentencing of a diplomat (Arseny Konovalov) for treason (1530Z, ASTRA) suggest the RF is in an "internal security" phase, likely to preempt any domestic instability during winter operations.
Logistics & Sustenance: RF continues to utilize "charity" events in occupied territories (e.g., Olenivka) for civil-military propaganda to consolidate control over the local population (1526Z, DNR).
Friendly activity (UAF)
Force Disposition: UAF forces in Huliaipole are conducting a fighting withdrawal/delaying action in the western and southern outskirts to establish a new defensive crust.
Strategic Industrialization: The milestone of 50% domestic production (1510Z) suggests a decreased reliance on Western supply chains for specific munitions, potentially mitigating delay risks in 2026.
Diplomatic Engagement: President Zelenskyy's coordination with Finland (1515Z) likely focuses on winter energy defense and further AD support.
Information environment / disinformation
Subversion Narrative: RF media is heavily pushing the "School of the Single Principle" arrests in St. Petersburg to frame legitimate domestic dissent as "Ukrainian-controlled religious extremism" (1521Z, Alex Parker).
FSIN Disavowal: The Russian Federal Penitentiary Service (FSIN) is actively denying rumors of "New Year in prison" invitations, indicating a potential UAF or dissident-led info-op targeting Russian civilian morale (1532Z, TASS).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): Arrival of the detected Chernihiv OWA-UAVs at their targets (likely energy infrastructure in central/western Ukraine) followed by a 27 DEC dawn missile strike.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): RF forces in Rodynske (if control is absolute) launch an immediate mechanized push toward the eastern outskirts of Pokrovsk to capitalize on the disruption of UAF defensive rotations.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
(P1) Rodynske Verification: Need immediate satellite or drone BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) to confirm if RF "Storm" units hold the western exits of Rodynske.
(P2) Huliaipole Vector: Determine if RF forces in central Huliaipole are pivoting South (toward Polohy) or West (toward Orikhiv) to identify the primary axis of exploitation.
(P3) Domestic Production Mix: Identify which specific weapon systems comprise the reported "50% domestic production" (e.g., FPV drones vs. 155mm shells) to assess long-term sustainability.
