DIPLOMATIC PIVOT: High-level reports indicate a 20-point peace plan is 90% finalized between the US and Ukraine, including security guarantees from Washington and Europe (RBK-Ukraine, 1253Z; Operatyvnyi ZSU, 1238Z, MEDIUM).
ZELENSKY-TRUMP SUMMIT CONFIRMED: President Zelensky has confirmed he will meet Donald Trump in Florida this Sunday (RBK-Ukraine, 1255Z, HIGH).
HULIAIPOLE COMMAND CRISIS: Local reporting confirms a "systemic crisis" led to the capture of a battalion command post (CP) in Huliaipole, corroborating earlier RF claims of a breakthrough in the urban center (Sternenko, 1239Z, HIGH).
WESTERN AIR THREAT ESCALATION: OWA-UAVs have bypassed previous lines, currently transiting Zhytomyr and Vinnytsia Oblasts on a northern/northwestern vector (AFU Air Force, 1242Z/1249Z, HIGH).
TACTICAL SUCCESS NEAR KOSTIANTYNIVKA: UAF successfully repelled a Russian armored column, destroying several "Franken-tanks" (improvised armored vehicles) (Tsaplienko, 1236Z, MEDIUM).
RF INTERNAL PURGE: A former RF Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) employee was sentenced to 12 years for treason/espionage for US intelligence (TASS, 1245Z; ASTRA, 1258Z, HIGH).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
Battlefield Geometry:
The frontline remains fluid with a notable RF emphasis on consolidating gains in Huliaipole. The loss of a battalion CP in Huliaipole indicates a breakdown in local command and control (C2). In the Donbas, UAF has maintained defensive integrity near Kostiantynivka despite mechanized pressure.
Weather/Environmental Factors:
Persistent blizzard conditions (noted in 1200Z reports) continue to impact logistics. However, RF aviation is still active, launching KABs into Donetsk Oblast (AFU Air Force, 1302Z), suggesting that while ground mobility is degraded, VKS (Aerospace Forces) operations remain viable during weather windows.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
Capabilities and Tactics:
Improvised Armor: The continued use of "Franken-tanks" near Kostiantynivka suggests RF is still struggling with high-end MBT (Main Battle Tank) attrition and is relying on field-modified older chassis for assault roles.
Foreign Manpower: Evidence of African mercenaries operating in the Kupyansk sector (Butusov Plus, 1303Z) indicates RF continues to augment frontline strength with non-traditional personnel to preserve core ethnic-Russian units.
Drone Operations: RF is increasingly targeting Ukrainian Unmanned Ground Vehicles (UGVs/NRTK) using FPV drones (DNR NM, 1301Z), indicating a tactical focus on neutralizing UAF's automated logistical and combat support systems.
Logistics and Sustainment:
Civilian Support: Pro-RF channels are actively reporting on charitable foundations providing specialized "frontline armor" and supplies, indicating a continued reliance on non-state logistics to meet specific tactical needs (Dva Mayora, 1240Z).
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
Operational Posture:
Air Defense: UAF AD is currently engaged in multi-oblast tracking of OWA-UAVs (Shahed-type) across Odesa, Vinnytsia, and Zhytomyr. The southern vector (Ovidiopol) suggests a renewed attempt to pressure Odesa’s port infrastructure.
Legal/Counter-Intelligence: The Office of the General Prosecutor has formally issued suspicions against RF prison officials regarding the death of journalist Viktoria Roshchyna, maintaining legal pressure on RF war crimes (General Prosecutor, 1300Z).
Tactical Readiness:
Southern Front: The admission of a "systemic crisis" in the Huliaipole sector highlights an urgent requirement for reserve reinforcement and a restructuring of the local defensive architecture to prevent a wider collapse toward Orikhiv.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
Peace Negotiation Narrative: A massive surge in reporting (Axios via RBK-Ukraine, Tsaplienko, ASTRA) regarding a potential ceasefire for "referendums" is likely a coordinated Russian PSYOPS effort to soften Ukrainian domestic resistance or test international reactions ahead of the Sunday summit.
Propaganda: RF sources are heavily leveraging "Air Defense Day" (Dec 26) and Soviet nostalgia (Basurin, 1245Z) to maintain domestic morale during the winter offensive.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will maintain high-intensity OWA-UAV pressure on Vinnytsia and Zhytomyr tonight to degrade the energy grid. Ground operations will focus on consolidating the Huliaipole urban core and probing the new UAF defensive line to the west.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF exploits the reported "systemic crisis" in Huliaipole with a fresh mechanized brigade-sized assault before UAF can stabilize the C2 structure, aiming for a deep penetration toward the Zaporizhzhia-Donetsk border.
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
(P1) Huliaipole Command Status: Confirm if the battalion CP capture resulted in the loss of sensitive crypto or operational maps. Identify the current location of the 102nd TDF or adjacent units' forward C2.
(P2) Vinnytsia/Zhytomyr Targets: Determine the specific high-value targets for the current drone wave (e.g., Lityn/Khmilnyk vicinity substations).
(P3) Peace Plan Authenticity: Seek independent verification of the "20-point plan." Is the "ceasefire for referendums" an RF-proposed condition or a genuine US-Ukraine discussion point?
(P4) Foreign Fighter Density: Assess the ratio of foreign mercenaries in the Kupyansk sector to determine if this is a localized trial or a theater-wide shift in manpower distribution.
