RF CAPTURE OF KOSOVTSEVO CONFIRMED: Russian MoD and state media claim the full "liberation" of Kosovtsevo (Zaporizhzhia), signaling a potential tactical bridgehead for an offensive toward Ternuvate (1009Z, 1033Z, MoD Russia/TASS, HIGH).
MASSIVE MISSILE STRIKE CAMPAIGN: MoD Russia confirms a "massive strike" and five "group strikes" (Dec 20-26) using Kinzhal hypersonic missiles targeting "civilian facilities" in retaliation for UAF deep strikes (1015Z, MoD Russia, HIGH).
UMAN MISSILE STRIKE: A confirmed Russian missile strike on Uman (Cherkasy Oblast) has resulted in at least 6 casualties, including two children (1020Z, 1025Z, RBK-Ukraine/Cherkasy OVA, HIGH).
STRATEGIC RAIL THREAT: Intelligence reports indicate RF intent to pivot strike priority toward railway infrastructure, specifically targeting the Ukraine-Poland logistics corridor to halt Western aid (1030Z, Serhiy Flash/Tsaplienko, MEDIUM).
HULIAIPOLE URBAN PENETRATION: RF "Vostok" group drone units claim active fire control and a shift of fighting into the western portions of Huliaipole (1022Z, 1027Z, Kotsnews/Starshiy Eddy, MEDIUM).
MULTI-VECTOR UAV PROBES: Active OWA-UAVs detected over Northern Chernihiv (heading south), Southern Zaporizhzhia, and East Kharkiv (1012Z, 1021Z, 1033Z, PS ZSU, HIGH).
Chernihiv: UAV activity detected on a southerly heading suggests reconnaissance or a strike mission targeting Kyiv's northern approaches (1033Z).
Border Operations: GS ZSU reports repelling one RF assault in the Kursk/North Slobozhansky direction (1024Z).
2. Eastern Sector (Kupyansk/Donbas):
Kupyansk: Despite previous reports of RF collapse, kinetic activity continues south of the city near Hlushkivka (1009Z). RF sources are attempting to reframe the sector narrative as "stabilized" (1021Z).
Pokrovsk/Myrnohrad: Extremely high kinetic intensity. Clashes reported across a broad front including Chervonyy Lyman, Rodynske, Myrnohrad, and towards Novoekonomichne (1010Z). RF continues utilizing infantry infiltration.
Sloviansk/Lyman: Heavy fighting confirmed near Siversk, Serebryanka, and Novoselivka (1009Z). RF is pushing toward the Ozerne/Zarichne line.
3. Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson/Odesa):
Zaporizhzhia (Kosovtsevo/Ternuvate): The loss of Kosovtsevo establishes an RF salient that threatens Ternuvate. RF aviation has heavily bombarded the area, including Huliaipole and Stepove (1009Z).
Huliaipole: RF drone operators are effectively interdicting UAF supply lines, claiming "total fire control" over the city’s western outskirts (1022Z).
Kherson: Localized clashes continue in the vicinity of the Antonivskiy bridge (1010Z).
Odesa: Russian aviation strikes targeted Zatoka (1009Z), likely aiming for the critical bridge/logistics node previously identified as a target.
Enemy analysis (Threat assessment)
Course of Action - Infrastructure Interdiction: The RF has explicitly shifted its narrative to "retaliatory" strikes. The specific warning regarding the Ukraine-Poland rail link (1030Z) suggests a planned effort to create a strategic "logistics blockade" before the arrival of new Western aid packages.
Hypersonic Utilization: The confirmed use of Kinzhal platforms (1015Z) indicates the RF is willing to expend high-value munitions on targets it perceives as critical to disrupting UAF deep-strike capabilities.
Zaporizhzhia Tactical Momentum: The capture of Kosovtsevo suggests the "Vostok" Group has maintained offensive cohesion despite winter conditions. Their stated goal of moving on Ternuvate indicates an intent to widen the breach in the Zaporizhzhia defensive line.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Defensive Operations: GS ZSU is maintaining a high-tempo defensive engagement across the Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka axes (1010Z).
Personnel Recovery: The Ukrainian government has initiated a 50,000 UAH support payment for civilians released from RF captivity, supporting domestic morale and social cohesion (1010Z).
Counter-ISR: UAF continues to track and report multiple UAV vectors, though the density of "Shahed/Geran" probes is straining local AD in Zaporizhzhia and Chernihiv.
Information environment / disinformation
Legal Repression (RF): The 5-year sentencing of Galina Timchenko (Meduza) reflects an intensifying crackdown on independent information flow within Russia (1029Z).
Normalisation Narrative: Russian state media is amplifying US reports (WSJ) suggesting that Russia's return to the world economy is inevitable, aiming to undermine Western sanction resolve (1017Z).
Logistics Propaganda: RF mil-bloggers are using drone footage of Huliaipole to project an image of UAF logistical paralysis (1022Z).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Continued group missile strikes targeting rail junctions in Western Ukraine and power infrastructure in Central Ukraine (Uman/Cherkasy vector).
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF forces exploit the Kosovtsevo breakthrough with a mechanized push toward Ternuvate, potentially flanking UAF units in the Huliaipole sector and forcing a broad withdrawal.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
(P1) Railway Vulnerability: Identify specific bridge and switching nodes on the Kyiv-Lviv-Poland rail line currently being prioritized by RF GRU/Targeting cells.
(P2) Huliaipole Western Outskirts: Confirm the extent of RF infantry penetration into Huliaipole city limits. Is the UAF still holding the western residential sectors?
(P3) Kinzhal Launch Platforms: Monitor airfields (e.g., Savasleyka) for Mig-31K re-arming activity to predict the next "group strike" window.
