AIR THREAT CANCELLATION (LIPETSK): Regional authorities in Lipetsk have lifted the "yellow" level air threat alert, indicating a reduction in immediate OWA-UAV or missile danger for the Voronezh-Lipetsk corridor (0243Z, I. Artamonov, HIGH).
AERIAL ACTIVITY (SHOSTKA): A Russian UAV was detected in the Shostka district (Sumy Oblast), moving on an easterly course. This is likely an ISR mission assessing the impact of previous strikes or monitoring UAF logistics movements near the border (0247Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH).
LOGISTICS TRANSPARENCY INITIATIVE: The Ukrainian Ministry of Defence has commenced testing video recording for the acceptance of rear-area property and military assets. This measure aims to enhance accountability and mitigate corruption within the supply chain (0256Z, RBC-UA, HIGH).
RF DISINFORMATION CAMPAIGN (CHRISTMAS): Russian state media, citing collaborator Andrey Marochko, is claiming UAF personnel are "refusing" to observe Christmas on December 25th, labeling the calendar shift "blasphemy." This is assessed as a targeted psychological operation to sow internal religious and cultural discord (0302Z, TASS, LOW/UNCONFIRMED).
Operational picture (by sector)
Northeastern Sector (Sumy/Shostka): New UAV activity over Shostka indicates continued RF interest in the Sumy-Kursk border region. The easterly heading suggests the asset may be returning to base or repositioning to orbit the border GLOCs (Ground Lines of Communication).
Eastern Axis (Kupyansk/Donbas): No significant changes reported in the last 30 minutes. UAF holds tactical positions near Zapadne (confirmed at 1323Z yesterday). RF 9th Guards Bde remains in an infantry-led "small group" infiltration posture in the Myrnohrad sector.
Southern Axis (Odesa/Zaporizhzhia): The integrity of the Odesa bridge to Romania remains the critical intelligence gap (P1). No new kinetic reports from the Zaporizhzhia vector since the 1437Z (Dec 25) KAB strikes.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Course of Action - Reconnaissance/Targeting: The UAV over Shostka suggests the RF is maintaining persistent ISR over the northern border. Given the recent deep strikes by UAF (Orenburg/Temryuk), this asset may be looking for launch sites or assembly areas for follow-on OWA-UAV waves.
Hybrid Operations: The TASS report regarding UAF morale and Christmas observations is a clear attempt to exploit the transition of the Ukrainian liturgical calendar. This narrative aims to project an image of low morale and "officer-enforced" cultural change to domestic Russian audiences and receptive elements within Ukraine.
Rear State: The lifting of the air alert in Lipetsk suggests RF air defenses have successfully engaged or observed the culmination of the latest UAF drone wave in that specific sector.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Logistics Modernization: The implementation of video-fixation for property acceptance is a critical step in professionalizing the logistics domain. It directly supports long-term sustainability and satisfies international donor requirements for transparency.
Air Defense: Mobile groups continue to track and engage low-RCS (Radar Cross Section) targets like the UAV spotted over Shostka.
Information environment / disinformation
Narrative Manipulation: The RF is pivoting from purely kinetic reporting to "social-cultural" reporting (e.g., the Christmas "refusal" claim) to mask their lack of mechanized progress in sectors like Myrnohrad.
Confidence Assessment: Confidence in reports of UAF "unrest" regarding Christmas is LOW. These claims originate exclusively from RF-affiliated "experts" without visual or independent verification.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): RF will continue using ISR assets (like the Shostka UAV) to refine targeting for a retaliatory strike.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): Synchronized missile/drone strike from the North (Olenya/Monchegorsk) and South (Black Sea Fleet) targeting energy distribution, leveraging the 48-hour retaliatory window following the Orenburg strike.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
(P1) Odesa Bridge Integrity (CRITICAL): Still unverified. Require GEOINT or ELINT on traffic flow/stoppage at the Romanian border crossing.
(P2) Shostka UAV Type: Determine if the Shostka asset is purely ISR (Orlan-10/Supercam) or a "Shahed" variant loitering for a target of opportunity.
(P3) Monchegorsk Readiness: Update on SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar) scores for the Strategic Bomber fleet. Any engine start-up or cruise missile loading activity?
