AIRSPACE PENETRATION (WESTERN/NORTHERN UKRAINE): Ongoing OWA-UAV (Geran-type) activity across Volyn (1840Z), Zhytomyr (1843Z), and Chernihiv (1904Z) oblasts, indicating a coordinated multi-vector night strike. (Air Force UA, HIGH).
KAB STRIKES (DONETSK): RF Aerospace Forces (VKS) have initiated fresh launches of Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs) targeting the Donetsk sector. (1849Z, Air Force UA, HIGH).
CASUALTIES IN ZAPORIZHZHIA: Confirmed results of recent strikes in the Zaporizhzhia district; four civilians injured and severe structural damage reported. (1855Z, Zaporizhzhia OVA, HIGH).
COGNITIVE OPERATION (ELECTION NARRATIVE): RF state-aligned channels are aggressively amplifying alleged "SOCIS" polling data showing military leaders (Zaluzhny/Budanov) outperforming President Zelenskyy, aimed at fostering internal political friction. (1848Z, Operatsiya Z, LOW Confidence/Disinformation).
LOGISTICAL DISRUPTION (MOSCOW): "Yellow" weather alert issued for Moscow/Moscow Region due to heavy snowfall, likely further delaying the movement of the new "Unmanned Systems Regiment" noted in previous reports. (1901Z, TASS, HIGH).
STRATEGIC SANCTIONS IMPACT: Russian plans to triple LNG production have been delayed "by years" due to ongoing technology and finance sanctions. (1905Z, Operativny ZSU, MEDIUM).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The tactical situation remains fluid as the RF transitions from its late-afternoon ballistic strike on Dnipro into a sustained, multi-sector OWA-UAV and KAB campaign. Battlefield geometry is currently being shaped by RF air superiority assets (KABs) on the Donetsk axis and a "probing" drone campaign in the north and west (Volyn/Chernihiv). Environmental factors, specifically the blizzard in the RF interior, are providing a temporary logistical reprieve by slowing RF reinforcements from the Moscow hub.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Capabilities and Intentions:
Aviation Surge: The launch of KABs toward Donetsk (1849Z) suggests the RF is providing close air support to the "small group" infantry infiltration tactics currently being employed near Myrnohrad.
Deep Strike Vector: Drones over Volyn (heading toward Turisk/Kovel) indicate a persistent intent to threaten Western Ukrainian GLOCs (Ground Lines of Communication) near the Polish border.
Hybrid Operations: The use of RT-produced "Christmas" propaganda and the promotion of divisive polling data (Zelenskyy vs. Zaluzhny) confirms a high-intensity cognitive effort to synchronize with physical strikes during the holiday period.
Logistics and Sustainment:
Energy Sector Attrition: Long-term reporting (1905Z) indicates the RF's strategic energy pivot is failing due to sanctions, though this has no immediate tactical impact on current frontline ordnance availability.
Climate Constraints: Moscow’s weather emergency (1901Z) continues to degrade the RF's ability to mobilize rear-area assets efficiently.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue force tracking)
Tactical Posture:
Air Defense (AD): UAF AD is currently engaged in a "track and intercept" mission across the northern and western corridors. The movement of drones toward Honcharivske (Chernihiv) suggests a threat to local military infrastructure.
Strategic Assessment: The NSDC's evaluation of China’s 20-year strategy (1856Z) indicates a high-level focus on multi-decade hybrid threats, viewing the RF as a tactical instrument of Beijing's broader pressure on Europe.
Resource Requirements:
Electronic Warfare (EW): Mobile AD teams require immediate EW reinforcement in the Volyn sector to counter low-altitude OWA-UAVs targeting rail/logistics hubs.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Disinformation Campaign: A heavy emphasis is being placed on Ukrainian "inability to fund elections" (1902Z) and internal military-civilian rivalry. This is a classic "wedge" operation designed to degrade national unity during a period of high kinetic stress. (Belief: Information Warfare/Disinformation - 0.2205).
International Condemnation: US Senators have formally labeled Putin a "ruthless killer" following Christmas Day strikes, providing a diplomatic counter-narrative to RF claims of "readiness for peace." (1903Z, RBK-UA).
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will continue the OWA-UAV wave through 0300Z, shifting targets from Chernihiv/Zhytomyr toward Western Ukrainian energy hubs to coincide with the drop in overnight temperatures.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF utilizes the current KAB sorties in Donetsk as a suppression-of-enemy-air-defense (SEAD) mask to launch a heavy mechanized push toward Rodynske, attempting to bypass the stalled Myrnohrad front.
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
(P1) KAB Impact (Donetsk): Confirm the specific impact locations of the 1849Z KAB launches. Are they targeting FEBA (Forward Edge of the Battle Area) or rear-echelon assembly points?
(P2) Volyn Vector Target: Identify the specific target for drones moving toward Turisk. Is the objective the rail bridge or a storage facility?
(P3) SOCIS Data Origin: Determine the source of the "SOCIS" poll cited by Russian channels. Verify if this is a complete fabrication or a manipulated leak.
