STRATEGIC STRIKE: UAF General Staff confirms a successful long-range strike on the Khanskaya military airfield (Adygea, RF), home to the 272nd Training Aviation Base (1433Z, ЦАПЛІЄНКО, HIGH).
ENERGY SABOTAGE: UAF units successfully targeted energy infrastructure in Rostov Oblast, RF; visuals indicate significant disruption to regional power nodes (1419Z, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, MEDIUM).
TACTICAL DEFENSE: The "Phoenix" UAV unit (State Border Guard Service) repelled a combined mechanized assault on the Toretsk axis, destroying one tank and a motorized column (1428Z, ЦАПЛІЄНКО, HIGH).
INTERNAL SECURITY: A civilian in Dnipro attacked and wounded two Territorial Recruitment Center (TCC) personnel; highlights growing domestic friction regarding mobilization (1423Z, РБК-Україна, HIGH).
AERIAL THREAT: RF Aerospace Forces launched multiple KAB (guided bombs) strikes against Sumy Oblast (1406Z, Air Force of Ukraine, HIGH).
SPACE/STRATEGIC: RF Ministry of Defense conducted a successful launch of a Soyuz-2.1a carrier rocket from the Plesetsk Cosmodrome (1432Z, ТАСС, HIGH).
HYBRID SIGNALING: RF long-range aviation (bombers) conducted provocations near UK/NATO airspace, forcing an intercept by NATO fighters (1415Z, ЦАПЛІЄНКО, MEDIUM).
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Axis (Sumy/Kharkiv):
Increased use of KABs by RF tactical aviation indicates a persistent effort to degrade UAF defensive preparations and civilian morale in the Sumy border region (1406Z).
Eastern Axis (Toretsk/Donbas):
Toretsk: RF remains committed to mechanized "meat" assaults. The destruction of a tank and column by the "Phoenix" unit (1428Z) confirms that UAF remains dependent on high-precision FPV/UAV assets to compensate for local infantry ratios.
Donetsk: RF is conducting staged propaganda events, including a "football match" involving the "Pyatnashka" brigade (1425Z), likely intended to distract from heavy losses in the Myrnohrad surge.
Deep Strike / Rear Operations:
Adygea (RF): The strike on Khanskaya airfield (1433Z) represents a significant expansion of the UAF target set into training and reserve aviation bases. This forces RF to redistribute air defense (AD) assets further from the frontline.
Rostov (RF): Continued degradation of the Rostov energy grid directly impacts the logistics of the Southern Group of Forces (1419Z).
Russian Interior:
A massive 4-day blizzard in Moscow (1407Z) is currently hindering civilian transit and likely slowing the deployment of newly formed Moscow Military District units.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Force Generation & Tech: The launch of the Soyuz-2.1a (1432Z) likely carries military-grade orbital assets (possibly ELINT or imagery) intended to replenish RF's satellite constellation, addressing the gap mentioned in previous reports regarding reliance on Chinese imagery.
Hybrid Operations: Bomber flights near NATO airspace (1415Z) are assessed as "strategic fatigue" operations, timed to the Christmas holiday to test Western readiness and political cohesion.
Tactical Adaptation: RF is increasingly utilizing "combined" assaults (armor + motor columns) in the Toretsk sector, though their effectiveness remains limited by UAF UAV superiority.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Counter-Logistics: UAF deep strike capability is demonstrating high precision and range, successfully hitting targets in Rostov and Adygea within the same 12-hour window.
Special Operations (SSO): Active fundraising for the 8th Separate SSO Regiment (1417Z) suggests high operational tempo for special units, likely in support of the deep strike campaign or behind-the-lines sabotage.
Morale Management: President Zelenskyy’s messaging (1414Z) continues to frame RF Christmas shelling as "barbarism," successfully maintaining the narrative contrast between UAF and RF forces for international audiences.
Information environment / disinformation
Mobilization Friction: The wounding of TCC personnel in Dnipro (1434Z) is being heavily amplified in the pro-RF information space to validate narratives of "Ukrainian domestic collapse" (ref. Басурин о главном, 1407Z).
Staged Humanitarianism: The "match of life" in Donetsk (1425Z) is a classic RF active measure intended to project "normalcy" in occupied territories while kinetic operations intensify nearby.
Central Asia Instability: Rybar’s report on Tajikistan (1428Z) suggests RF is preparing its domestic audience for potential involvement or "stabilization" efforts in Central Asia, possibly as a distraction from the Kupyansk reversal.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Continued KAB strikes on Sumy and Kharkiv to mask RF repositioning. RF will likely attempt to capitalize on the TCC incident in Dnipro to seed further domestic unrest via Telegram-based influence operations.
MDCOA: A retaliatory long-range missile strike on Odesa or Kyiv energy hubs, utilizing the Soyuz launch and NATO-border flights as distractions/diversions for the holiday period.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
(P1) Khanskaya BDA: Obtain satellite imagery or HUMINT confirmation of aircraft damage at the 272nd Training Base. Specifically, identify if any combat-capable airframes (Su-34/30) were present during the strike.
(P2) Rostov Energy Status: Assess the scale of the power outage in Rostov. Does this affect the rail lines supplying the Donetsk/Zaporizhzhia fronts?
(P3) Dnipro Unrest: Monitor social media for organized protests following the TCC incident. Determine if this was an isolated event or part of a coordinated subversion campaign.
