(1021Z, ASTRA, HIGH): Successful Ukrainian deep strike on the Novoshakhtinsk Oil Products Plant (NZNP) in Rostov Oblast (RF); facility is confirmed on fire.
(1014Z, Butusov Plus, HIGH): UAF 27th Pecherks Brigade (LASAR’S GROUP) destroyed a TOS-1A "Solntsepyek" heavy thermobaric rocket launcher in the Pokrovsk direction.
(1018Z, KMVA, HIGH): Air raid alarm in Kyiv cleared after a 10-minute threat window involving Russian UAVs entering from the Kyiv Reservoir (1007Z).
(1020Z, Basurin/FSB, MEDIUM): FSB claims to have "thwarted" a series of UAF-linked sabotage operations in Kaluga Oblast, allegedly targeting federal gas storage facilities.
(1028Z, DShV UAF, HIGH): Perun Corps (Airborne Assault Forces) confirmed the destruction of a Russian BM-21 Grad MLRS via precision drone strike.
(1033Z, Archangel Spetsnaza, HIGH): Moscow Mayor Sobyanin officially announced a recruitment drive for civilian gamers to be integrated into "Unmanned Forces" drone units.
(1034Z, Air Force UAF, HIGH): RF tactical aviation launched fresh KAB (guided bomb) strikes toward southern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast from the Zaporizhzhia axis.
(1024Z, Operation Z, LOW): Pro-Russian sources claim US sanctions against EU officials have triggered a "sovereignty crisis" in the EU; assessed as DISINFORMATION/NARRATIVE SHAPING.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational tempo remains high on the Christmas holiday, characterized by a dual-track of Russian tactical pressure in the Donbas and Ukrainian strategic "asymmetric attrition" against the RF energy-industrial base.
Battlefield Geometry: The front lines in the Pokrovsk/Myrnohrad sector remain the focus of intense attrition. While RF ground advances were not specifically reported in the last 30 minutes, the destruction of high-value RF assets (TOS-1A) indicates UAF is effectively using drone-led fire control to blunt mechanized momentum.
Deep Strike Operations: Ukraine has successfully extended its "holiday" strike campaign to the Novoshakhtinsk Oil Plant, following earlier strikes on the Orenburg Gas Plant. This targets the RF's refined product supply chain, specifically affecting logistics for the Southern Group of Forces.
Aerial Activity: The threat to Kyiv remains persistent but manageable, with the latest UAV wave (Shaheds) being intercepted or diverted. However, the use of KABs against Dnipropetrovsk indicates an expansion of the aerial bombardment zone beyond the immediate line of contact.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
Tactical Adaptation: The formal recruitment of "gamers" for drone units (1033Z) confirms the RF’s intent to professionalize and mass-produce its unmanned capabilities, addressing the high attrition rate of skilled operators.
Logistics & Assets: The loss of a TOS-1A "Solntsepyek" (1014Z) is a significant blow to RF assault capability in the Pokrovsk sector. These assets are critical for clearing UAF fortified positions; their destruction suggests gaps in RF air defense/Electronic Warfare (EW) coverage for high-value mobile assets.
Internal Security: Continued reports of FSB arrests in Nizhny Novgorod (1007Z) and "thwarted attacks" in Kaluga (1020Z) suggest the RF internal security apparatus is under strain or is aggressively manufacturing "sabotage" narratives to justify domestic crackdowns.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
Precision Strike Success: UAF drone units (LASAR’S GROUP, Perun Corps) continue to demonstrate high technical proficiency, successfully identifying and neutralizing high-value RF artillery and thermobaric systems on the march.
Air Defense & Resilience: UAF Air Defense effectively neutralized the immediate UAV threat to the capital. Public morale remains high, as evidenced by reports of Christmas caroling during air raid sirens in Kyiv (1029Z), signaling a failure of the RF "psychological exhaustion" campaign.
Maritime Domain: UAF is currently engaging a Russian reconnaissance UAV over the Black Sea near Odesa (1021Z). This drone is assessed as a target spotter for potential missile strikes on the Odesa port infrastructure.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
Economic Narrative: RF officials (Novak) are attempting to project economic stability with claims of <6% inflation (1016Z), despite high-level complaints about record-low mortgage lending (1024Z), indicating internal friction between war spending and domestic economic health.
Legal Impunity: Reports of a Russian serviceman escaping prosecution for a fatal DUI (1017Z) continue to circulate in "Z-channels," potentially fueling civil-military tension within the RF as legal standards for "SVO veterans" diverge from civilian norms.
Disinformation Alert: Claims of a "US-EU sanctions rift" (1024Z) are likely intended to exploit perceived Western holiday stand-downs and project an image of collapsing Western unity. Confidence: LOW.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will continue KAB saturation of the Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk border to disrupt UAF logistics. UAF will likely launch a third wave of "deep strikes" tonight, targeting additional energy or refinery nodes in the Rostov/Krasnodar regions.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A coordinated strike using the reconnaissance UAVs currently over the Black Sea to guide Kalibr cruise missiles into the Odesa energy hub, coinciding with the already fragile state of the national grid.
Timeline:
1200Z - 1800Z: High probability of retaliatory RF missile launches following the Novoshakhtinsk strike.
Next 6h: Continued mechanized probes near Myrnohrad, likely supported by remaining RF thermobaric assets.
Intelligence Gaps & Collection Requirements
Novoshakhtinsk BDA: (P1) Require high-resolution imagery of the NZNP to determine if the primary distillation columns were hit or if the fire is limited to storage tanks.
Black Sea Recon: (P1) Identify the launch platform for the UAV near Odesa; determine if this indicates an imminent Kalibr launch from a Black Sea Fleet vessel.
Pokrovsk Asset Density: (P2) Assess if the destruction of the TOS-1A is an isolated event or if RF is concentrating these systems for a major Christmas Day breakthrough attempt.
Actionable Recommendations
EW Deployment (Pokrovsk): (URGENT) Deploy additional mobile EW teams to the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad axis to exploit the current vulnerability of RF mechanized assets to UAF heavy drones.
Air Defense Readiness (Odesa): (PRIORITY) Alert AD clusters in the Odesa region for potential high-precision strikes following the detection of the RF reconnaissance UAV (1021Z).
Strategic Communications: (ADVISORY) Counter the RF "economic stability" narrative by highlighting the Khusnullin mortgage admission to domestic RF audiences, emphasizing the long-term cost of the war on Russian civilian life.
