(0306Z, TASS, HIGH): SPC "Ushkuynik" announced development and deployment of new surface and underwater drones (USVs/UUVs) for the "Special Military Operation."
(0316Z, Zaporizhzhia OBA, HIGH): Air raid alert cleared in the Zaporizhzhia region; indicates neutralization or departure of aerial threats in the Southern sector.
(0331Z, Dnevnik Desantnika, MEDIUM): Coordinated VDV (Paratrooper) propaganda output; likely intended for internal morale boosting or signaling readiness for tactical rotation.
(Baseline Carryover, HIGH): The OWA-UAV detected south of Chernobyl (0248Z) remains an active threat for Western/Central Ukraine.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
The operational tempo in the early hours of 25 DEC 25 remains focused on two domains: the Northern Air Corridor and the Black Sea Maritime Domain.
Battlefield Geometry: The air threat has temporarily subsided in the South (Zaporizhzhia), but the Northern "Chernobyl Gap" remains the primary transit point for OWA-UAVs attempting to bypass Kyiv's air defense (AD) umbrella.
Weather/Environmental Factors: Pre-dawn darkness persists. Sea states in the Black Sea are not currently reported, but the introduction of new Russian UUVs (Underwater Unmanned Vehicles) suggests a shift toward sub-surface engagement to avoid visual detection by UAF coastal lookouts.
Control Measures: Air alerts remain active in regions west of Kyiv (Zhytomyr/Rivne) following the 0248Z detection.
Capabilities & Intentions (Maritime): The announcement by Alexey Chadaev (SPC "Ushkuynik") regarding new surface and underwater drones (0306Z) is a significant technical adaptation.
Analysis: RF is attempting to achieve parity with UAF "Sea Baby" and "Magura" capabilities. The mention of underwater drones (UUVs) indicates a focus on striking the hull/keel of grain corridor vessels or attacking seabed infrastructure (cables/pipelines).
Tactical Adaptation: The use of SPC "Ushkuynik" suggests a decentralized "volunteer/private" manufacturing model, similar to the UAF's "Army of Drones," aimed at rapid prototyping and bypassing traditional MoD bureaucratic delays.
VDV Dispositions: The propaganda activity from "Dnevnik Desantnika" (0331Z) suggests that VDV units, likely in the Donetsk or Zaporizhzhia sectors, are being prepared for continued high-intensity mechanized "banzai" assaults similar to those observed in Myrnohrad.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking - IPB Step 3)
Air Defense Posture: UAF AD in the Southern sector has successfully managed the most recent threat cycle (0316Z clear). However, attention must remain fixed on the Western vector for the Chernobyl-origin UAV.
Maritime Security: UAF Naval forces and GUR (Defense Intelligence) must now account for a dual-layered drone threat: traditional USVs and newly announced UUVs. This necessitates an increase in acoustic monitoring and active sonar use for critical port infrastructure.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain - IPB Step 4)
Technological Signaling: The TASS interview (0306Z) is a classic deterrence narrative. By announcing "new" weapons, RF seeks to project a image of rapid innovation and military-industrial resilience despite international sanctions.
Internal Morale: The VDV propaganda (0331Z) targets the domestic Russian audience to reinforce the "elite" status of paratroopers, likely to mask high casualty rates in the Myrnohrad sector mentioned in previous daily reports.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): The UAV currently west of Chernobyl will attempt to strike a logistics or energy node in Khmelnytskyi or Lviv between 0430Z and 0530Z. Simultaneously, RF will begin initial field trials of the "Ushkuynik" drones in the northwestern Black Sea within the next 48-72 hours.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF utilizes the new UUVs in a coordinated strike against the Odesa port infrastructure or commercial shipping during the Christmas holiday window, aiming to disrupt the maritime export corridor while international monitoring is reduced.
Timeline:
0400Z–0600Z: High risk for UAV impact in Western Ukraine.
25–27 DEC: Initial operational capability (IOC) window for new RF naval drones.
Intelligence Gaps & Collection Requirements
UUV Technical Specs: (P1) Identify the propulsion system (battery vs. combustion) and depth rating of the "Ushkuynik" underwater drones.
Chernobyl UAV Status: (P1) Confirm BDA or interception of the UAV detected at 0248Z.
VDV Movements: (P2) Identify if the VDV propaganda correlates with the rotation of the 10 units identified in the Myrnohrad surge.
Actionable Recommendations
Operational (Naval): Update Maritime Security Rules of Engagement (ROE) to include sub-surface threats. Deploy additional sonar buoys and passive acoustic sensors around Odesa, Chornomorsk, and Pivdennyi ports.
Tactical (Air Defense): Maintain high-alert status for Mobile Fire Groups (MFGs) in the Khmelnytskyi/Rivne sectors until the Chernobyl UAV is definitively neutralized.
Technical Intelligence (TECHINT): Task electronic intelligence (ELINT) assets to monitor for new command/control frequencies potentially associated with SPC "Ushkuynik" drone platforms.
