(0209Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): Active enemy tactical aviation detected over the Eastern operational zone. This indicates a broadening of aerial pressure beyond the Southern axis reported at 0136Z.
(0220Z, TASS, MEDIUM): Russian General Prosecutor's Office seeking 2.5 billion rubles from Georgy Satyukov and family. Represents ongoing internal legal purges targeting high-level figures within the RF apparatus.
(0152Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): (Carried from previous) KAB launches targeting Zatoka (Odesa); Southern sector remains under high kinetic threat.
(0138Z, RBK-UA, HIGH): (Carried from previous) Operational damage confirmed at Port of Temryuk; two fuel reservoirs destroyed.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational tempo remains high as the Russian Federation (RF) expands its aerial activity across multiple fronts. While the immediate UAV threat to Kyiv has subsided (0151Z), the RF has activated tactical aviation in both the Southern (Zatoka/Odesa) and Eastern (Donbas) sectors. This synchronized activity suggests an attempt to fix Ukrainian Air Defense (AD) assets in the East while continuing infrastructure-focused strikes in the South.
Battlefield Geometry: The conflict is currently defined by a "multi-axis aerial surge." The focus is shifting toward supporting ground operations in the East (likely Myrnohrad/Kupyansk) while maintaining strategic pressure on maritime logistics in the South.
Weather/Environmental Factors: No significant changes; conditions remain conducive for tactical aviation and guided aerial bomb (KAB) deployments in the South and East.
Current Force Dispositions: RF tactical aviation is operating from airfields in the Rostov and Krasnodar regions. Strategic assets (Tu-95MS) continue their North Atlantic signaling flight (0203Z).
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
Capabilities & Intentions: The 0209Z detection of tactical aviation in the East suggests the RF is preparing for Close Air Support (CAS) or interdiction strikes to facilitate the "banzai-style" mechanized assaults reported in Myrnohrad. The RF intent is to overwhelm UAF visual and electronic sensors by saturating multiple sectors simultaneously.
Tactical Changes: The RF is moving away from a singular focus on the energy grid (per the previous daily report) toward direct tactical support of frontline breakthrough attempts in the Donbas.
Logistics & Sustainment: The Satyukov legal action (0220Z) may be an attempt by the RF state to claw back funds for the "Unmanned Forces" or other military expansion projects, indicating continued fiscal stress and a move toward "war footing" within the legal system.
Command and Control (C2): The RF is likely utilizing the Chinese satellite imagery (confirmed in the daily report) to update target sets for the tactical aviation flights detected at 0209Z.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
Force Posture: UAF Air Defense remains on high alert in the Eastern and Southern operational zones. Mobile fire groups (MFGs) are repositioning following the cancellation of the Kyiv alarm.
Tactical Successes: Successful interdiction of the initial UAV wave over Kyiv (0151Z). Continued monitoring of the Temryuk fire indicates significant disruption to the RF maritime fuel supply chain.
Resource Requirements: Ammunition constraints for the "Chervona Kalyna" Brigade in Myrnohrad remain critical. Increased air activity necessitates prioritized MANPADS and SHORAD (Short-Range Air Defense) resupply to the Eastern front.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
RF Narrative Control: State media (TASS) is prioritizing domestic legal/social reporting (Satyukov case, Norilsk incident) to project an image of internal governance and stability, potentially masking the operational impact of the Temryuk strike.
Dempster-Shafer Support: Analytical beliefs (0.55) strongly support the assessment that the Satyukov case is a domestic legal challenge intended to reinforce internal discipline during a period of high-intensity warfare.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF tactical aviation in the East will conduct high-frequency KAB and rocket strikes against UAF defensive positions in Myrnohrad and Kupyansk within the next 3-6 hours to exploit the darkness and morning fog.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): The tactical aviation activity in the East and South is a "noise" operation to mask a coordinated low-altitude cruise missile strike (Kh-101/Kalibr) targeting the Kryvyi Rih – Kropyvnytskyi – Cherkasy energy corridor, as warned in the daily report.
Timeline: 0330Z–0700Z. High-risk window for frontline aviation strikes in the Donbas.
Intelligence Gaps & Collection Requirements
Eastern Sector Target ID: P1. Identify specific aircraft types and ordnance loads for the 0209Z tactical aviation activity. Are these Su-34s carrying KABs or Su-25s for CAS?
Myrnohrad Integrity: P1. Determine if the 0209Z aviation activity has directly impacted the "Chervona Kalyna" Brigade's defensive line.
Satyukov Connection: P3. Confirm if Georgy Satyukov’s assets were linked to specific RF MoD procurement programs (e.g., fuel or drone production).
Actionable Recommendations
Tactical (Donbas): Deploy additional electronic warfare (EW) "bubbles" around Myrnohrad command posts to counter the increased tactical aviation threat and potential Chinese satellite-guided corrections.
Operational (Air Defense): Prioritize Eastern AD coverage for the next 4 hours. Ensure "Osa-AKM" or "Gepard" units are positioned to intercept low-flying tactical jets in the Kupyansk-Myrnohrad vector.
Logistics: Expedite ATGM and MANPADS delivery to the Eastern sector via low-signature transport during the 15-20 hour blackout window.
