(0109Z-0120Z, UAF Air Force/KMVA, HIGH): Multi-vector UAV attack on Kyiv and Boryspil. Ingress routes identified from Chernihiv Oblast (Losynivka/Baturyn) and from the east. Air raid sirens active in the capital.
(0119Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH):KAB (Guided Aerial Bomb) launches detected targeting Kharkiv Oblast from Russian territory to the north; marks a shift or expansion from the Sumy-centric strikes reported at 0044Z.
(0133Z, Operativnyi ZSU, HIGH): Corroborated reports of two petroleum reservoirs burning at the Port of Temryuk (RU) following the earlier UAV strike. Confirms significant sustained damage to RF Black Sea logistics.
(0124Z, TASS, LOW): RF industrial sources claim the first batch of "Berdysh" heavy drones has been deployed to the "SVO" zone. UNCONFIRMED; technical capabilities and specific deployment locations remain unknown.
(0133Z, TASS, MEDIUM): Diplomatic friction in Poland; Polish officials reportedly denied entry to a former RF consulate building. Indicates heightened regional tensions regarding RF sovereign property in NATO territory.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational tempo has escalated into a high-intensity aerial engagement phase. The Russian Federation (RF) has launched a coordinated UAV assault on the Ukrainian center of gravity (Kyiv) while simultaneously expanding tactical aviation (KAB) strikes into the Kharkiv sector.
Battlefield Geometry: A multi-axis aerial threat is developing toward Kyiv. Ingress vectors from the Northeast (Baturyn) and East suggest a saturating maneuver designed to overwhelm local Air Defense (AD) clusters.
Key Terrain:
Kyiv/Boryspil: Primary targets for current UAV wave; likely targeting C2 nodes or energy infrastructure during the ongoing blackout crisis (Daily Report).
Port of Temryuk (RU): Confirmed active fire; this remains a critical "choke point" strike against RF maritime-to-land fuel transfers.
Weather/Environmental Factors: Predawn darkness continues to facilitate UAV low-altitude penetration. Temperatures near 0°C exacerbate the impact of any potential energy grid hits in the capital.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
Capabilities & Intentions: The RF is executing the Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA) predicted in the previous report: a saturation strike on Kyiv during the holiday window. The use of multiple vectors (East and Northeast) indicates high-level coordination.
Tactical Changes: The shift of KAB strikes from Sumy to Kharkiv (0119Z) suggests the RF is probing for gaps in tactical AD along the northern border or preparing for localized ground incursions in the Kharkiv sector.
Logistics & Sustainment: The introduction of the "Berdysh" heavy drone (0124Z) may indicate a push to field larger loitering munitions capable of carrying heavier payloads against hardened structures or Ukrainian armor in Myrnohrad.
Command & Control: The diplomatic incident in Poland (0133Z) may be used in RF domestic information operations to justify further "retaliatory" strikes against Western-aligned interests.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
Force Posture: UAF Air Defense and Mobile Fire Groups (MFGs) are fully engaged in the Kyiv/Boryspil sector.
Tactical Successes: Successful interdiction at Temryuk (0133Z) is now a confirmed operational-level blow to RF fuel logistics in the Azov region.
Constraints: High alert status across Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Sumy sectors is placing maximum strain on AD magazine depth. The 50% loss of generation capacity (Daily Report) makes the capital's secondary power systems highly vulnerable to this ongoing UAV wave.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
RF Propaganda: TASS is actively promoting military-industrial "successes" ("Berdysh" drones) to provide a narrative of technological superiority while downplaying the visually confirmed losses at the Port of Temryuk.
Diplomatic Friction: The incident in Poland is likely being monitored by RF intelligence to gauge Polish/NATO resolve regarding the status of RF diplomatic facilities, potentially as a precursor to hybrid provocations.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will continue UAV ingress into Kyiv for the next 2-3 hours, attempting to identify and exhaust AD battery locations. KAB strikes in Kharkiv will focus on logistics hubs supporting the Myrnohrad front.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A "follow-on" cruise missile strike (Kalibr or Kh-101) timed to hit Kyiv just as AD assets are re-arming or exhausted by the current UAV wave, aiming for a total blackout of the capital by sunrise.
Timeline: 0200Z–0500Z. Critical window for AD engagement over Kyiv and potential second-wave missile launches.
Intelligence Gaps & Collection Requirements
"Berdysh" Drone Specs: Priority 1 (P1). Is this a heavy multi-rotor for tactical use or a fixed-wing loitering munition? Identify thermal/radar signatures.
Kyiv Target Array: Determine if UAV vectors are converging specifically on the Boryspil airfield or Kyiv-area electrical substations (e.g., Kyivska 750kV).
Kharkiv KAB Impacts: Confirm if KAB strikes (0119Z) hit civilian centers or UAF staging areas for the 3rd OShBr (Daily Report context).
Actionable Recommendations
Tactical (Kyiv AD): Implement immediate "silent/dark" protocols for all non-essential emitters in the Kyiv/Boryspil area to prevent RF UAVs from acting as SEAD (Suppression of Enemy Air Defense) bait for follow-on missile strikes.
Operational (Logistics): Accelerate the dispersal of fuel and ammo in the Kharkiv sector; the shift in KAB targeting suggests active RF reconnaissance-strike loops are focusing on this area.
Strategic (Comm): Immediately amplify the "Temryuk Fire" visuals through international media to counter RF narratives of industrial dominance ("Berdysh" deployment).
