(02:36, Zaporizhzhia OVA, HIGH): At least three kinetic impacts confirmed in Zaporizhzhia city; residential district targeted.
(02:41, Zaporizhzhia OVA, HIGH): Casualties confirmed in Zaporizhzhia; at least two individuals wounded following strikes on civilian infrastructure.
(02:49, Air Force UA, HIGH): Launch of KAB (Guided Aerial Bombs) detected targeting Donetsk Oblast.
(02:51, Operation Z, HIGH): Active disinformation operation identified; fabricated quote attributed to Italian PM Meloni regarding a "worse" 2025 being disseminated to degrade Western resolve.
(02:58, TASS, LOW):UNCONFIRMED claim by RF MoD regarding the destruction of UAF strongholds in Huliaipole via BM-21 "Grad" MLRS.
Operational picture (by sector)
Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia/Huliaipole):
Zaporizhzhia City: The threat has escalated from property damage to human casualties. At least three strikes have impacted a single district (02:36Z), causing fires in garages and vehicles and wounding two civilians. This indicates a sustained focus on urban terror to fix emergency resources.
Huliaipole: RF state media (TASS) claims MLRS "Grad" activity against UAF strongholds. While unconfirmed, this aligns with the "fixing force" role of Huliaipole mentioned in the 24h report, likely intended to prevent UAF from reinforcing the Andreevka/Dnipropetrovsk border sector.
Eastern Axis (Donetsk/Pokrovsk):
The KAB threat has expanded to include Donetsk Oblast (02:49Z). This follows the earlier expansion of KAB vectors in Kharkiv, suggesting a theater-wide surge in RF tactical aviation sorties. This poses a direct threat to the M1A1 Abrams units recently deployed to the Pokrovsk sector.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Aviation Surge: The simultaneous employment of KABs in Kharkiv (east/north vectors) and now Donetsk indicates a high degree of coordination between the RF "Sever" and "Vostok" groupings. The goal is likely to suppress UAF tactical reserves and logistics hubs supporting the Pokrovsk-Huliaipole line.
MLRS Utilization: The reported use of "Grad" MLRS in Huliaipole suggests the RF is transitioning from precision strikes to area-denial fire to compensate for the -11°C weather and potential equipment strain.
Hybrid Escalation: The fabricated Meloni quote represents a transition from domestic "information chaff" (e.g., Father Frost scams) to targeted international disinformation aimed at undermining the political will of NATO allies during the holiday period.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Civil Defense: State Emergency Services (DSNS) and Zaporizhzhia OVA are managing casualty evacuation and fire suppression under active threat conditions.
Defense Posture: UAF continues to hold the Huliaipole sector despite reported MLRS barrages. Air defense units are tracking the expansion of KAB launch zones toward Donetsk.
Information environment / disinformation
Adversary IO: The "Operation Z" channel is promoting a fake graphic/quote from PM Meloni. This is a classic "Active Measure" designed to create a sense of inevitable defeatism in the European public sphere.
Belief Assessment: Dempster-Shafer analysis shows a combined belief (~0.28) in artillery or missile strikes on Zaporizhzhia. The confirmation of 2 wounded (02:41Z) validates the high-intensity nature of these residential strikes.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will continue KAB saturation in the Donetsk and Kharkiv sectors to disrupt the rotation of UAF heavy armor (M1A1s). Expect continued urban harassment in Zaporizhzhia to overwhelm local C2.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A massed MLRS/KAB preparation fire in the Huliaipole-Andreevka gap, followed by a mechanized push using "Courier" UGVs to exploit the Dnipropetrovsk border breach.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Huliaipole BDA: Urgent GEOINT/UAV verification of TASS claims. Are RF "Grad" units achieving breakthrough fire, or is this standard harassment?
KAB Launch Platform ID: Correlate Donetsk KAB launches with the "Eastern" Kharkiv launches to determine if a single air wing (e.g., 47th Bomber Aviation Regiment) is responsible for both sectors.
Casualty Identification: Determine if Zaporizhzhia casualties include any utility/energy workers, which would indicate a deliberate targeting of "frequency-regulation" personnel during the cold snap.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational tempo has increased in the Southern and Eastern sectors. The RF is leveraging tactical aviation (KABs) and MLRS to fix UAF forces across a wide frontage, while simultaneously escalating a "doomsday" disinformation campaign targeting Western supporters.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (THREAT ASSESSMENT)
Tactical Evolution: The RF is using a "high-low" mix of expensive KABs for frontline suppression (Donetsk) and cheaper MLRS/UAVs for rear-area harassment (Zaporizhzhia/Huliaipole).
C2 Integration: The rapid shift of KAB targets suggests the new Commander of Unmanned Systems (Vaganov) and the Tactical Aviation wings are operating under a more unified target-list protocol.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (BLUE FORCE TRACKING)
Strain on Reserves: Continuous KAB threats in Donetsk may force UAF to pull back high-value assets (M1A1 Abrams) to secondary lines, potentially weakening the Pokrovsk defensive belt.
Resilience: Civil authorities in Zaporizhzhia remain effective in BDA reporting and emergency response despite repeated strikes.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Strategic Disinformation: The Meloni fabrication is a priority for counter-messaging. Ukrainian Strategic Communications (StratCom) should coordinate with Italian authorities to debunk the Christmas address fabrication before it gains traction in the European "alternative" media space.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Decision Point: If the Huliaipole MLRS activity is confirmed as a preparation fire (as per MDCOA), UAF must decide whether to reinforce the Huliaipole-Andreevka axis at the risk of stripping the northern Kharkiv/Sumy front.
6. RECOMMENDATIONS
Tactical (Donetsk):AIR THREAT ADVISORY. Issue immediate warnings to the 425th Mechanized Regiment (Pokrovsk) regarding KAB launches. Ensure M1A1 assets are utilizing "shoot-and-scoot" tactics and overhead cover.
Operational (Zaporizhzhia):DISPERSE EMERGENCY ASSETS. Move DSNS standby points away from central districts to avoid "double-tap" strikes on first responders.
IO (Strategic):DEBUNK MELONI FAKE. Use official government channels to flag the "Operation Z" Meloni quote as a fabricated "Active Measure" to international partners.
