(20:07, Zelenskiy / Official, HIGH): President Zelenskyy confirmed that the Ukrainian negotiating team (Umerov and Hnatov) returned from the US with "working drafts" of agreements with the Trump administration, claiming specific points have been "strengthened."
(20:22, DeepState, HIGH): Fierce kinetic engagements reported in the central sector of Dvorichna (Kharkiv Oblast), indicating an RF attempt to seize this logistical node.
(20:29, RBC-UA, HIGH): Russian forces conducted a precision strike against Ukrnafta energy infrastructure overnight; significant damage to facilities confirmed via visual evidence.
(20:05, Operativniy ZSU/GUR, HIGH): GUR Representative Vadym Skibitskyi warns of a massive increase in Russian drone production capacity and "drone potential."
(20:30, TASS/MOD RF, MEDIUM): RF Ministry of Defense claims 17 Ukrainian UAVs were intercepted over Russian territory (including Bryansk) in a 3-hour window.
(20:11, RBC-UA/TASS, HIGH): Confirmed death of the Chief of General Staff of Libya (Gen. Mohammed Ali al-Haddad) in a private plane crash in Turkey following high-level military meetings.
(17:45, Voenkor Ukoev, MEDIUM): Russian sources released video footage claiming the final capture of Andreevka (Dnipropetrovsk border) and Prilipka (Kharkiv).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational tempo is intensifying along the northern and eastern axes. While the southern front remains a theater of unmanned maritime and aerial attrition, the Kharkiv-Kupyansk axis (specifically Dvorichna) has emerged as a critical point of friction.
Battlefield Geometry:
Northern Axis (Kharkiv): The battle for Dvorichna (20:22Z) suggests the RF is attempting to collapse the Ukrainian bridgehead on the Oskil River.
Eastern Axis (Pokrovsk): High-intensity FPV operations by the RF "Center" Group (20:31Z) continue to target UAF personnel and armor, likely attempting to counter the recently deployed M1A1 Abrams units.
Strategic Rear: Russia has shifted targeting from the general power grid to specific extraction and processing infrastructure (Ukrnafta, 20:29Z), likely aiming to cripple Ukraine's domestic fuel production during the sub-zero cold snap.
Weather/Environmental Factors:
Severe Cold: Temperatures remain between -11°C and -16°C. While this facilitates heavy vehicle movement, it exacerbates the impact of strikes on energy infrastructure, turning tactical successes into humanitarian and logistical crises.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (THREAT ASSESSMENT)
Capabilities & Intentions:
Drone Proliferation: GUR assessments (20:05Z) indicate the RF is successfully scaling its unmanned production. This supports the recent deployment of Starlink-equipped "Molniya" UAVs and "Courier" UGVs, signaling a move toward a centralized, high-tech unmanned doctrine.
Targeting Shift: The strike on Ukrnafta indicates a shift toward the "Oil and Gas" segment of the energy sector, intended to create fuel shortages for both the military and civilian sectors.
Maneuver Focus: Claims of capturing Andreevka (17:45Z) suggest the RF "Vostok" grouping is attempting to establish a firm foothold on the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast to threaten the N15 highway.
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA):
RF will maintain high-pressure FPV and UGV assaults in the Pokrovsk sector while attempting to encircle the UAF grouping in Dvorichna to force a withdrawal across the Oskil.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (BLUE FORCE TRACKING)
Operational Posture:
Active Defense: UAF units in Dvorichna and Pokrovsk are engaged in "fierce battles," utilizing local tactical reserves to prevent a breakthrough.
Strategic Diplomacy: The return of the Umerov-Hnatov team from the US (20:07Z) suggests Ukraine is pivoting toward a long-term security framework that anticipates a shift in US policy. Strengthening "working drafts" indicates successful negotiation on hardware and security guarantees.
Counter-UAS: UAF continues high-volume long-range UAV operations into Russian interior oblasts, forcing the RF to issue wide-area "Drone Safety" alerts (20:26Z).
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Russian Framing: RF state media is heavily amplifying reports of US military movements in the Caribbean/Venezuela (20:24Z, 20:29Z). This is likely a hybrid operation intended to frame the US as a global aggressor and distract international attention from Russian escalations in Ukraine.
Internal Morale: Ukrainian channels are emphasizing the "20th Separate Motorized Brigade 'Lyubart'" and the "Defenders from Yakutia" (20:03Z, 20:29Z) to highlight the multi-ethnic/national nature of the combatants on both sides, though the UAF messaging remains focused on resilience during the Christmas season.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Short-term (6-12h): High probability of continued OWA-UAV strikes on Central Ukraine. Potential for localized UAF counter-attacks in Dvorichna to stabilize the Oskil River defensive line.
Medium-term (24-72h): If the capture of Andreevka is confirmed by independent GEOINT, expect a significant RF surge toward the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast interior, necessitating the redirection of UAF strategic reserves from the North.
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
Andreevka/Prilipka Verification:(URGENT) Confirm FLOT status via GEOINT. Is the RF presence sustainable or a "flag-planting" raid?
Ukrnafta BDA: Assess the exact nature of the damage at the Ukrnafta facilities. Will this impact fuel supply for the Eastern Group of Forces?
Libyan Incident Linkage: Investigate any potential RF involvement or opportunistic messaging regarding the Libyan Gen. Al-Haddad's death in Turkey, given the recent Turkish-Libyan military meetings.
7. RECOMMENDATIONS
Logistics Resilience: Prioritize the protection of fuel storage and processing sites (Ukrnafta/Motor Sich) with localized SHORAD and EW, as these are now primary RF targets.
Tactical Mobility: In the Dvorichna sector, prepare for potential river crossings if the central town remains untenable; ensure bridgehead security is maintained on the western bank.
EW Adaptation: Accelerate the distribution of frequency-hopping protocols to frontline units to counter the increased RF drone production and the integration of Starlink into RF strike assets.
