(15:09, ЦАПЛІЄНКО, HIGH): Multiple kinetic impacts confirmed in Kremenchuk, Poltava Oblast; major fires reported at industrial/infrastructure sites.
(15:17, Поддубный, MEDIUM): Russian sources claim targets in Kremenchuk included the Kremenchuk Oil Refinery (NPZ), the rail bridge over the Dnipro, and the Thermal Power Plant (TPP).
(15:33, General Staff UAF, HIGH): Official report of intense, high-priority fighting in the Siversk sector.
(15:12, UA Air Force, HIGH): Active KAB (Guided Aerial Bomb) launches targeting Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
(15:18, Операция Z, LOW): UNCONFIRMED claims of "operational encirclement" of UAF forces in Myrnohrad (Pokrovsk sector); currently assessed as psychological operations (PSYOPS).
(15:24, UA Air Force, HIGH): Incursion of attack UAVs (Geran/Shahed type) into Odesa Oblast from the Black Sea.
(15:30, Colonelcassad, HIGH): Internal Russian security indicates further purges within the military-industrial complex; former Rosatom director Sakharov arrested for bribery.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment has escalated significantly in the last hour. The Russian Federation (RF) has transitioned from reconnaissance-in-force to a coordinated multi-domain strike phase. High-tonnage strikes on Kremenchuk target the literal heart of Ukrainian logistics and energy, while the Siversk and Pokrovsk axes are experiencing peak tactical pressure. Weather conditions (-12°C) are likely being exploited to degrade Ukrainian fixed-position resilience through constant KAB and drone harassment.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (THREAT ASSESSMENT)
Course of Action & Intent:
Strategic Strike Series: The targeting of Kremenchuk (15:17) is a deliberate attempt to sever the central logistics artery. If the rail bridge is damaged, the Ground Lines of Communication (GLOCs) supporting the M1A1 Abrams deployment in Pokrovsk will be severely compromised.
Aviation Adaptations: Constant KAB launches in Zaporizhzhia (15:12) indicate the RF is maintaining high-tempo sorties despite weather, likely utilizing standoff distances to avoid updated UAF AD envelopes.
Tactical Maneuver (Siversk): The General Staff’s specific mention of Siversk (15:33) suggests the RF "Sever" or "Vostok" groupings have launched a concentrated assault to collapse the Siversk bulge, potentially to prevent UAF from shifting reserves to the Pokrovsk/Myrnohrad sector.
Internal Friction:
Hybrid Discord: Tensions appear between the Chechen "Akhmat" leadership (Alaudinov) and the Russian mainstream narrative (15:13), with accusations of "separatism" emerging on nationalist channels. This friction may impact C2 cohesion in sectors where Akhmat units are integrated.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (UAF)
Defensive Posture: UAF remains under "intense" pressure in Siversk and the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad corridor. The mention of negotiations for "radical change" by President Zelenskyy (15:23) suggests a high-level diplomatic effort to secure immediate air defense or long-range strike capabilities to counter the current RF surge.
Technical Success: The Kalinouski Regiment (ZBS group) reported the destruction of 17 enemy drones (14:47), demonstrating effective localized C-UAS capabilities using likely a mix of EW and kinetic interception.
Logistical Resilience: Maintenance of the "western grid island" remains the priority following massive infrastructure strikes.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Russian Disinformation: Pro-RF channels are aggressively pushing an "encirclement" narrative in Myrnohrad (15:18) to induce panic among UAF tactical units. There is no corroboration of a closed pocket at this time (LOW CONFIDENCE).
Diplomatic Signaling: Ukraine is reinforcing its EU alignment through high-level talks with Ursula von der Leyen (15:21), countering RF narratives of "Ukrainian isolation" during the winter offensive.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will maintain the pressure on Siversk and Myrnohrad throughout the night, using the Odesa-bound UAVs (15:24) as a screen or distraction for a second wave of missile strikes against the Kremenchuk-Dnipro logistics corridor.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A confirmed breach in Myrnohrad leads to the operational isolation of UAF units defending Pokrovsk, forcing a disorganized withdrawal under -12°C conditions and heavy KAB bombardment.
Timeline: Next 4-8 hours will be critical for BDA at Kremenchuk and determining the stability of the Siversk shoulder.
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
Kremenchuk BDA: Urgent requirement for satellite or ground reconnaissance of the Kremenchuk Rail Bridge and Oil Refinery. Can rail traffic still move across the Dnipro? (CRITICAL)
Myrnohrad FLOT: Confirm the exact Forward Line of Own Troops in Myrnohrad to disprove or validate the "encirclement" claims. (HIGH)
Odesa Drone Trajectory: Determine if drones from the Black Sea are targeting port infrastructure or transit routes to Moldova/Romania.
7. RECOMMENDATIONS
Counter-Reconnaissance: Increase FPV/UAV patrols in the Myrnohrad sector to identify RF flanking movements and disrupt the "encirclement" attempt.
Logistics Rerouting: Prepare alternate GLOCs for the Pokrovsk grouping assuming the Kremenchuk rail bridge may be non-operational or restricted.
Strategic Communications: Issue a formal rebuttal regarding the Myrnohrad encirclement to stabilize frontline morale and counter RF PSYOPS.
