(13:48, Tsaplienko, HIGH): Approximately 100 RF troops have entered Hrabovske (Sumy Oblast) and are attempting to advance toward Ryasne; active kinetic engagements reported.
(13:38, Tsaplienko, HIGH): Ukrainian forces successfully repelled a significant RF mechanized assault targeting Dobropillya (Pokrovsk sector) originating from the morning of Dec 22.
(13:41, RBK-UA, HIGH): Operational-Tactical Group "East" reports heavy defensive fighting on the immediate approaches to Myrnohrad.
(13:49, PS ZSU, MEDIUM): Inbound UAV detected vectoring toward Chernihiv from the north.
(13:38, RVvoenkor, MEDIUM): Ukrainian Defense Minister Umerov returned to Kyiv following high-level security guarantee negotiations in the United States.
(13:42, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): Russian intelligence sources claim UAF is preparing massed UAV strikes against Crimea, Rostov, and Krasnodar regions in the coming days.
(13:58, Dnevnik Desantnika, LOW):UNCONFIRMED: RF claims of a Geran-2 UAV destroying a UAF Mi-24 helicopter; no visual corroboration provided.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational tempo has shifted toward high-intensity localized ground assaults in the Pokrovsk and Sumy sectors. The RF has opened a new tactical axis in the Sumy Oblast (Hrabovske), utilizing small-unit infiltration (~100 personnel) to bypass border defenses. Concurrently, the RF "Vostok" and "Center" groupings are maintaining extreme pressure on the Myrnohrad-Dobropillya line, attempting to collapse the eastern flank of the Pokrovsk defensive pocket. Environmental conditions remain harsh (-11°C), with RF aviation leveraging the clear weather for sustained KAB strikes in the Kharkiv sector.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Threat Assessment:
Capabilities & Intentions: The RF is transitioning from broad frontal pressure to targeted incursions in the North (Hrabovske) to fix UAF reserves that might otherwise reinforce the deteriorating Pokrovsk sector. The use of ~100 troops in Hrabovske suggests a "probing" or "bridgehead" mission rather than a full-scale offensive, likely aimed at expanding the "buffer zone" concept seen in Kharkiv.
Tactical Maneuver: Despite a failed mechanized push toward Dobropillya (13:38), RF forces are effectively closing the distance to Myrnohrad (13:41). The continued use of mechanized assets despite recent high attrition indicates the RF still possesses localized armored reserves in the Donbas.
Information Warfare: RF claims of impending mass UAF drone strikes (13:42) are likely pre-emptive justifications for further RF strategic strikes on Ukrainian energy or C2 nodes.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (UAF)
Force Posture & Readiness: The successful 130-day rotation of the 93rd Mechanized Brigade elements near Kostiantynivka (13:41) indicates that despite high intensity, UAF is still managing critical force-regeneration cycles.
Strategic Developments: Minister Umerov's return from the US (13:38) underscores a focus on long-term security guarantees and potentially the acceleration of munitions deliveries to address localized deficits (e.g., the "Rusoriz" shortage noted in previous reports).
Internal Security: The SBU/Prosecutor General's anti-corruption operation in Zhytomyr (14:00) demonstrates continued focus on internal stability and DIB integrity despite the front-line crisis.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Russian Propaganda: RF MoD is heavily circulating POW "confessions" regarding the "deplorable" state of UAF defenses in the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction (14:03). This is a coordinated effort to undermine UAF morale during the winter defense.
International/Hybrid: The International Fencing Federation’s decision to allow Russian juniors with national symbols (13:48) marks a tactical victory for RF soft power and "normalization" efforts.
Internal RF Optics: Minor corrections by TASS regarding public complaints to Putin (13:36) suggest a high degree of sensitivity within the Kremlin regarding rural infrastructure failures during the cold snap.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will intensify the push toward Myrnohrad to establish fire control over the main supply routes into Pokrovsk. In the North, the Hrabovske incursion will likely attempt to dig in and establish a "grey zone" presence to pull UAF drone/artillery assets away from the Kharkiv/Vilcha axis.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A coordinated mechanized breakthrough south of Dobropillya that successfully bypasses UAF anti-tank screens, leading to the operational envelopment of the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad defensive complex before year-end.
Timeline: Expect a surge in RF aerial activity (UAVs and KABs) over the next 6-12 hours targeting Chernihiv and Kharkiv to mask ground movements in the Sumy sector.
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
Hrabovske Strength: Determine if the 100-man force in Hrabovske is supported by heavy armor or if it is purely light infantry/specialized reconnaissance.
Myrnohrad FLOT: Urgently require precise coordinates for the "approaches" to Myrnohrad to determine if RF has established positions within 5km of the city limits.
UAF Drone Readiness: Assess the validity of RF claims (Colonelcassad, 13:42) regarding a massed UAF drone strike. Determine if UAF is concentrating assets for a retaliatory campaign following the RF strikes on Kremenchuk.
Mi-24 Confirmation: Search for visual BDA or electronic signatures to confirm/deny the loss of the Mi-24 helicopter claimed by RF (13:58).
