(22:33, Operatyvnyi ZSU, HIGH): Confirmed takeoff of Russian Tu-95MS and Tu-160 strategic bombers from airbases in the Far East. This marks the transition from "preparation" to "mission execution."
(22:26, Operatsiya Z / Odesa OMA, HIGH): Kinetic impact confirmed in Odesa. Russian strikes have damaged port infrastructure; a vessel is currently on fire.
(22:24, UA Air Force, HIGH): Groups of enemy strike UAVs (Shahed-type) are maintaining a heading toward Artsyz (Odesa region) via the Tatarbunary district.
(22:15, RBK-UA / Reuters, MEDIUM): Reports of Russian drone incursions over a European nuclear facility have been downgraded to "imaginary" following a formal investigation.
(22:16, TASS, LOW): Russian MFA (Zakharova) is attempting to link EU policy on Greenland to the status of Kosovo, likely a rhetorical distraction from theater-level escalations.
(22:23/22:27, Operatyvnyi ZSU, LOW): Unconfirmed political rhetoric regarding a US "Golden Fleet" shipbuilding initiative; analyzed as a long-term geopolitical signal with zero immediate tactical impact.
Operational picture (by sector)
Southern Axis (Odesa/Bessarabia): The RF has successfully struck port infrastructure in Odesa (22:26). This confirms that the earlier UAV probes were either suppression-of-enemy-air-defense (SEAD) missions or part of a multi-layered strike. Ongoing UAV movement toward Artsyz (22:24) suggests the RF is targeting the southern logistics corridor near the Romanian border to disrupt grain/fuel flow.
Northern Axis (Sumy/Poltava): Per baseline (21:38), UAVs remain active on a track toward Poltava. No new kinetic impacts reported in this sector in the last 30 minutes, but AD remains engaged.
Strategic Depth: With VKS bombers airborne from the Far East (22:33), the entire territory of Ukraine is under high missile threat. Estimated Time on Target (TOT) for cruise missile arrivals is 03:00–05:00 UTC, depending on launch points.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Strategic Aviation (VKS): The airborne status of both Tu-95 and Tu-160 assets confirms a large-scale, coordinated retaliatory strike. The inclusion of Tu-160s (supersonic) alongside Tu-95s (propeller) suggests a mixed-tempo attack designed to saturate integrated air defense systems (IADS).
Tactical Evolution: The strike on the Odesa vessel (22:26) indicates a specific intent to degrade Ukrainian maritime capacity and port functionality, possibly in retaliation for the UAF's earlier successful strikes on the Kuban naval piers.
Logistics Status: Combined with the rapid refilling of the 2652th GRAU Base (Daily Report, Score 27.04), the current aerial activity suggests a sustained, multi-day offensive operation is commencing.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Damage Control: Emergency services and UAF port security are currently engaged in firefighting and Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) in Odesa following the vessel strike.
Air Defense Posture: Units in the Odesa and Poltava sectors are actively engaging low-altitude loitering munitions. Air Force Command is likely repositioning mobile AD assets to cover projected cruise missile flight paths.
Information environment / disinformation
Rhetorical Deflection: The Russian MFA's focus on Kosovo/Greenland (22:16) is a standard "noise" tactic used to flood the information space during high-intensity kinetic operations.
De-escalation of Hybrid Narrative: The Reuters report (22:15) clarifying that drones over EU nuclear centers were imaginary suggests that while RF is escalating in Ukraine, they are currently avoiding direct hybrid provocations against EU nuclear infrastructure that could trigger NATO Article 5 or 4 consultations.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely Course of Action): A massed missile strike involving Kh-101/555 and potentially Kh-47M2 (Kinzhal) missiles, timed for the pre-dawn hours (03:00-05:00 UTC). Primary targets will likely include energy infrastructure (exploiting the -11°C weather) and "Decision Making Centers" in Kyiv.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous Course of Action): Use of the "Oreshnik" ballistic complexes from Belarus to strike Western Ukrainian rail hubs simultaneously with the cruise missile wave, creating a complete logistical blackout during the cold snap.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
VKS Missile Loadout: Monitor for the number of missiles launched per airframe to estimate the total volume of the incoming wave.
Odesa BDA: Specifically identify the type of vessel struck (Military vs. Commercial) to assess if this is an escalation against the Grain Corridor.
Black Sea Fleet (BSF): Monitor for Kalibr-capable vessels exiting Novorossiysk to determine if a sea-based component will join the airborne strike.
INTELLIGENCE PREPARATION OF THE BATTLEFIELD (IPB) SUMMARY
SITUATION OVERVIEW: The theater has moved into an active strike phase. Strategic bombers are airborne, and initial kinetic impacts have been recorded in Odesa.
ENEMY ANALYSIS: RF is executing a synchronized "Retaliatory Strike Complex." They are utilizing UAVs as harbingers for a heavier strategic missile wave.
FRIENDLY FORCES: High alert; currently managing port damage in the South while tracking multi-sector UAV incursions.
