(18:25, Zelenskiy / Official, HIGH): Ukrainian negotiation team returning from Miami following meetings with Trump representatives; reports on a 20-point security guarantee framework and foundational documents are expected 23 Dec 0600Z.
(18:26, РБК-Україна, HIGH): RF forces launched a major mechanized column assault on Dobropillya (Pokrovsk sector) this morning; tactical engagements are ongoing.
(18:13, Операция Z, MEDIUM): RF sources claim Russian "Center" grouping is currently storming an "encircled" Mirnohrad and advancing toward the Dnipropetrovsk oblast border. [UNCONFIRMED - Possible Propaganda/Exaggeration].
(18:15, Air Force UA, HIGH): Enemy loitering munitions (BPLAs) detected on the northern border of Kyiv and Zhytomyr oblasts, indicating a potential bypass route for strikes on western or central infrastructure.
(18:14, ЦАПЛІЄНКО, HIGH): Visual confirmation of detainees (military and civilian) in Hrabovske (Sumy); President Zelensky confirms 52 Ukrainian civilians remain trapped in a cross-border village being utilized as a "gray zone."
(18:21, Два майора, MEDIUM): RF milbloggers acknowledge the loss of the 13th high-ranking officer during the conflict, indirectly confirming the impact of the General Sarvarov liquidation.
(18:17, РБК-Україна, MEDIUM): German MoD Pistorius reports no intelligence indicators that RF is prepared for peace, reinforcing the recent RF rejection of a Christmas ceasefire.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB)
Battlefield Geometry & Key Terrain:
Pokrovsk/Dobropillya Sector: The focus of effort has shifted toward Dobropillya. The introduction of mechanized columns (18:26) suggests RF is attempting to bypass the urban attrition of Pokrovsk to strike deeper logistics hubs.
Sumy/Hrabovske Bridgehead: The situation in Hrabovske has transitioned from a border incursion to a hostage/human shield scenario. 52 civilians in a village split by the border (ZVA, 18:07) significantly restrict UAF artillery response and create a tactical "sanctuary" for RF units.
Kyiv/Zhytomyr Axis: The presence of UAVs on the northern border (18:15) suggests RF is testing the density of Ukrainian air defenses in the North, likely as a precursor to the expected "prestige strike" following the Sarvarov assassination.
Weather & Environmental Factors:
No change from previous report (-11°C cold snap). Operational mobility for mechanized columns (observed at Dobropillya) suggests the ground is sufficiently frozen to support heavy tracked and wheeled vehicles outside of established paved GLOCs.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
Capabilities & Intentions:
Mechanized Surge: Despite previous reports of civilian vehicle use and armor shortages, the morning assault on Dobropillya (18:26) indicates RF still maintains operational reserves of heavy armor for breakthrough attempts in the Pokrovsk direction.
Unmanned Systems Integration: RF MoD is heavily promoting "Unmanned System Forces" (18:22), highlighting a shift toward FPV-centric combined arms. This matches UAF's tactical shift, leading to a high-density electronic warfare environment.
Psychological Vulnerability: Internal RF discourse regarding "quick peace" rumors is reportedly damaging frontline morale (Basurin, 18:22), suggesting a gap between Kremlin rhetoric and soldier expectations.
Tactical Changes:
RF is increasingly using small cross-border villages (like Hrabovske) as tactical hubs where civilian presence prevents UAF counter-battery fire.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
Ukrainian Force Posture:
Strategic Diplomacy: The UAF leadership (Umerov and Gnatov) is tightly integrated into the Miami negotiation process (18:25). The focus on "20 points" suggests a shift toward a structured security framework that may involve US-ratified guarantees.
Defensive Resilience: UAF units in the Dobropillya sector are currently engaging the mechanized surge. Success in this sector is critical to preventing an operational breakthrough toward the Dnipropetrovsk oblast border.
Logistical Constraints: Noted "heavy difficulty" in ongoing volunteer fundraising for munitions/drones (STERNENKO, 18:34) suggests a temporary lull or fatigue in civilian-sourced supply chains, which may impact FPV availability in the next 48-72 hours.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
RF Propaganda: Significant effort to humanize the "SVO" via films (Russell "Texas" Bentley biopic, 18:21) and the distribution of New Year gifts by the MFA (18:20) to maintain a sense of normalcy in Moscow.
NATO/Western Narrative: German MoD's statement (18:17) functions as a counter-narrative to RF "peace" signals, framing the RF stance as purely escalatory.
Art as Signal: The appearance of Banksy art near the RF embassy in London (18:09) is being used in the information space to maintain international focus on the diplomatic isolation of the RF.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA):
East: RF will continue the mechanized push toward Dobropillya to achieve a "Christmas victory" before the new diplomatic documents from the Miami talks are fully briefed.
North: Continued UAV harassment of Kyiv/Zhytomyr to fix UAF air defense assets away from the frontlines.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA):
Mirnohrad Encirclement: If RF claims of encircling Mirnohrad (18:13) are accurate, a rapid collapse of this sector could force a chaotic UAF withdrawal toward Pokrovsk, exposing the flank of the entire Donetsk grouping.
Hrabovske Exploitation: RF utilizes the 52 civilians in the Sumy border village as a "human shield" to establish a permanent fortifed position, using it as a launchpad for deeper raids into Sumy oblast.
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
Dobropillya BDA: Urgent need for drone footage or SIGINT to confirm the status of the RF mechanized column. How many units were neutralized?
Mirnohrad Status: High-priority requirement to verify the "encirclement" claim. Identify the status of the T0504 and T0511 supply routes.
Miami Framework: Need details on the "20 points" mentioned by Zelensky, specifically regarding troop withdrawal or ceasefire lines.
Hrabovske Detainees: Confirm the identity and status of the captured personnel shown in recent imagery (18:14) to determine if they are regular UAF, TDF, or civilians.
