(09:59, TASS/RF MoD, MEDIUM): RF Ministry of Defense claims the capture of Vilcha (Kharkiv Oblast), indicating a breakthrough in the northern buffer zone.
(09:59, Starshe Eddy, LOW): Reported assassination of Lieutenant General Fanil Sarvarov in Moscow; described as a high-ranking officer. UNCONFIRMED.
(09:44, Alex Parker Returns, LOW): GUR (Ukraine) reportedly released footage claiming a sabotage operation at an airfield near Lipetsk (RF), allegedly destroying Su-30 and Su-27 aircraft on the night of Dec 20-21. UNCONFIRMED.
(09:53, Operativnyi ZSU, HIGH): Clarification on Ukrainian Office of the President (OP) personnel: Andriy Yermak remains; advisors Leshchenko and Podolyak have been reappointed as "advisors to the Office," debunking previous dismissal rumors.
(10:03, Kotsnews, MEDIUM): Reported destruction of an Australian-supplied Abrams tank; first such loss reported for this specific variant.
(10:03, TASS/Vance, MEDIUM): US Vice President-elect Vance claims a "breakthrough" in Miami negotiations between the US and RF, citing discussions on ZNPP joint control and territorial concessions.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northeastern Axis (Sumy/Kharkiv/Kursk):
Kharkiv (Vovchansk/Vilcha): The RF MoD reports the "liberation" of Vilcha (TASS, 09:59). If confirmed, this moves the FLOT significantly south of the border and threatens the flank of UAF forces in Vovchansk.
Sumy Border: New reports indicate a "significant, sudden incursion" from the Belgorod region into northern Sumy Oblast (Basurin, 10:03). This suggests the RF is expanding the Northern front beyond the previously identified Hrabovske breach.
Eastern Axis (Donbas):
Pokrovsk Direction: RF forces claim to have struck a UAF Point of Temporary Deployment (PVD) near Hryshyne and are attempting to "block the supply of the pocket" (NM DNR, 10:01). Intense FPV drone duels are reported in the Krasnoarmiysk area (Dnevnik Desantnika, 09:50).
Kostiantynivka: Drone footage confirms "extensive urban destruction" (Colonelcassad, 09:40). RF mil-bloggers suggest a shift toward heavy aerial bombardment ("chugunium") to bypass urban resistance (Alex Parker, 09:51).
Southern Axis:
Zaporizhzhia (Huliaipole): UAF units report tactical engagement with RF infantry; footage released shows the elimination of RF personnel in the sector (DeepState, 09:55).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Shift: RF is increasingly utilizing FPV drones for counter-UAV "duels" to protect their assault groups in the Pokrovsk sector.
Strategic Aviation: While the Su-57 modernization continues (ref. previous sitrep), the potential loss of Su-30/27 airframes in Lipetsk (if confirmed) represents a significant blow to tactical aviation depth.
Operational Readiness: MoD RF reports indicate high MLRS activity across multiple sectors, supported by optimized readiness cycles (MoD Russia, 09:35).
Friendly activity (UAF)
Asymmetric Operations: UAF/GUR appears to be maintaining a high tempo of deep-rear sabotage (Lipetsk) and internal RF disruption (Belgorod bank incident) to force the diversion of RF security assets (Rosgvardia).
Internal Stability: The reappointment of OP advisors suggests a "restructuring" rather than a "purge," potentially aimed at streamlining C2 for upcoming diplomatic or winter operational phases.
Anti-Corruption: Ukrainian authorities have notified a former forestry official of suspicion regarding procurement fraud (1.6M UAH), signaling continued focus on domestic integrity during the mobilization (Office of Gen. Prosecutor, 10:00).
Information environment / disinformation
Negotiation Narratives: There is a surge in RF-aligned reporting regarding US-RF "breakthroughs" in Miami (TASS, 09:40-10:03). Statements attributed to Vance regarding Kyiv "recognizing inevitable loss" of DNR territory are likely intended to degrade Ukrainian domestic morale and fracture international support.
Internal RF Friction: Russian mil-bloggers are criticizing internal security failures following the reported killing of Gen-Lt Sarvarov and the Lipetsk sabotage, indicating a rift between frontline correspondents and the MoD/Security apparatus.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: RF will attempt to consolidate the capture of Vilcha and push further into the northern Kharkiv sector to force a UAF withdrawal from Vovchansk.
MDCOA: RF exploits the reported "breakthrough" in Sumy to conduct a deeper flanking maneuver toward Sumy city, coordinating with the logistics disruption in Zhytomyr.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Verification of Vilcha: Urgent need for satellite or ground-level BDA to confirm RF presence in central Vilcha.
Gen-Lt Sarvarov Status: Confirm the death and role of Gen-Lt Fanil Sarvarov; assess impact on RF C2.
Lipetsk Airfield BDA: Identify specific aircraft damage at Lipetsk to confirm the efficacy of GUR sabotage operations.
Miami Negotiations: Determine the validity of Vance's "breakthrough" claims versus Russian strategic signaling.
ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS:
Northern Flank Reinforcement: Deploy mobile reserves to the Vilcha-Vovchansk axis to prevent a localized collapse of the northern buffer zone.
EW Hardening (Pokrovsk): Increase the density of specialized anti-FPV electronic warfare systems for armor units in the Pokrovsk sector to counter the reported increase in RF drone duels.
Strategic Communication: The OPU and Ministry of Foreign Affairs must provide a counter-narrative to the "Miami breakthrough" claims to stabilize the domestic information environment.
Rear Security: Elevate alert levels for high-value aviation and C2 assets in Ukraine, anticipating RF "retribution" strikes following the Lipetsk and Moscow incidents.
